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美国每周申请失业救济人数接近57年来最低水平US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows

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2015年9月15日,华盛顿西北部一处工地上,一名屋顶工正在钉屋面板。路透社/加里·卡梅伦A roofer nails on shingles at a job site in northwest Washington September 15, 2015. REUTERS/Gary Cameron

美国申请失业救济人数的人数上周降至近57年来的最低水平,表明裁员人数低,劳动力市场稳定。

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to near 57-year lows last week, pointing to low layoffs and labor market stability.

劳工部周四表示,截至10月17日当周,州失业救济初次申请人数下降6000人,经季节性调整后为19.4万人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测,最新一周的申请人数为20万人。

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended October 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 claims for the latest week.

申请人数接近7月中旬触及的18.9万人水平,这是自1969年以来的最低读数。

Claims are within striking distance of the 189,000 level touched in mid-July, which was the lowest reading since 1969.

经济学家表示,在强劲的国内需求推动下,企业利润增长正在保护工人免受裁员。然而,也有担忧认为,随着美以与伊朗的战争助推通胀,金融状况收紧和利率上升可能明年削弱劳动力市场。

Economists say rising profits amid strong domestic demand were shielding workers from layoffs. There are, however, worries that tightening financial conditions and higher interest rates as the US-Israeli war with Iran fuels inflation could undercut the labor market next year.

申请数据涵盖了政府为10月就业报告中的非农就业部分调查商业机构的期间。

The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of October's employment report.

9月非农就业岗位增加2.9万个,此前8月反弹了13.3万个。当劳动节在月份相对较晚时,如9月的情况,非农就业往往表现不佳。经济学家继续认为,劳动力市场仍处于“低雇佣、低裁员”状态。但战争和进口关税带来的不确定性阻碍了招聘。

Payrolls increased by 29,000 jobs in September after rebounding by 133,000 in August. Payrolls tend to underperform when Labor Day falls relatively late in the month as was the case in September. Economists continue to view the labor market as still in a "low-hire, low-fire" state. But uncertainty from the war and tariffs on imports has stymied hiring.

申请报告显示,在领取首周救济后继续领取失业救济的人数(招聘的代理指标)在截至10月10日当周增加了2.5万人,经季节性调整后为172.8万人。

The claims report showed the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.728 million during the week ended October 10.

然而,所谓的继续申请人数不包括应届大学毕业生以及因缺乏或没有工作经历而不符合领取救济资格的其他人。

The so-called continuing claims, however, do not include recent college graduates and others who are ineligible for benefits due to little or no work history.

一些长期失业者可能已经用完了资格,在大多数州,资格仅限于26周,这使得持续申请失业金的人数保持在低水平。9月份失业时间的中位数为11.5周,接近四年半以来的高点。尽管如此,9月份失业率为4.2%,劳动力市场并不是通胀的来源。

Some long-term unemployed people may have exhausted their eligibility, which is limited to 26 weeks in most states, keeping continuing claims at low levels. The median duration of unemployment was 11.5 weeks in September, near a 4-1/2-year high. Still, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in September, the labor market is not a source of inflation.

经济学家表示,这降低了美联储在应对中东冲突带来的通胀影响时积极收紧货币政策的必要性。美国9月将隔夜基准利率上调25个基点,至3.75%-4.00%区间。

Economists said that reduced the need for the Federal Reserve to aggressively tighten monetary policy as it battles the inflation fallout from the Middle East conflict. The US in September raised its overnight benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% range.

经济学家预计,美联储将在下周的会议上按兵不动,并在12月再次加息。

Economists expect the Fed to stay pat at its meeting next week and hike borrowing costs again in December.

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