美中之间持续多年的贸易战促使制造业投资、工厂产量以及出口产品向越南转移，这推动了越南燃煤发电量的大幅增长。根据 Ember 的数据，2026 年前九个月，越南的燃煤电厂共发电 132.9 太瓦时（TWh），比去年同期增长了 15%，创下了该时期的历史新高。
A years-long trade war between the United States and China has helped shift manufacturing investment, factory output and export production into Vietnam, driving the Southeast Asian nation's coal-fired electricity generation to record highs. Vietnam's coal plants generated 132.9 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity during the first nine months of 2026, which is a 15% jump from the same months last year and the highest for that period on record, according to data from Ember.
由于今年夏季降雨量低于正常水平，水电发电量同比下降了约 12%；这一因素成为燃煤发电量增加的主要原因，迫使电力公司通过增加煤炭产量来弥补水电发电量的不足。
A roughly 12% decline in year-to-date hydro power production due to below-normal rainfall this summer has been a key driver of the greater coal-fired activity, forcing utilities to offset stunted reservoir output with higher coal production.
但更重要的因素是越南以出口为导向的制造业的快速发展——该行业在过去十年中迅速崛起，自 2019 年以来使越南的总电力需求增长了近 50%。从某种程度上说，这种制造业的扩张可以归因于美国政府的政策影响：自 2018 年以来，美国对中国商品征收关税，促使制造商将生产转移到成本更低的地区，而越南正是其中最大的受益者之一。
But a larger factor has been the steady swell in Vietnam's export-oriented manufacturing sector, which has grown rapidly within the past decade and lifted the country's total electricity demand by nearly 50% since 2019. In many respects, that manufacturing expansion can be traced back to Washington. US tariffs on Chinese imports since 2018 encouraged manufacturers to diversify production into lower-cost locations, with Vietnam emerging as one of the biggest winners.
这种生产结构的转变极大地推动了越南的制造业和电力需求的发展；然而，这也意味着越来越多的出口产品（尤其是那些原本销往美国市场的产品）仍依赖于依赖煤炭发电的电力系统来生产。这一变化在美国的贸易数据中表现得非常明显：2018 年，美国从中国的进口额大约是来自越南进口额的 10 倍；而今年，两国之间的月度进口额已基本持平。
The shift has helped supercharge Vietnam's factory sector and power demand, but it has also tied an increasing volume of export production destined for the US market to a power system that still relies heavily on coal for electricity generation. The switch in production origins shows up clearly in US trade data. In 2018, US imports from China were roughly 10 times larger than imports from Vietnam. This year, monthly imports from the two countries have been nearly level.
根据 LSEG 的数据，当美国从中国的进口额达到约 5390 亿美元的峰值时，美国每月对中国的贸易额约为 450 亿美元，而对越南的贸易额约为 40 亿美元。
When US imports from China hit their peak of roughly $539 billion, average monthly US trade flows to China were around $45 billion, data from LSEG shows. During that same year, average US monthly trade flows to Vietnam were around $4 billion.
2026年以来，美国对华和对越贸易流的月均值分别约为229亿美元和220亿美元。
So far in 2026, average monthly US trade flows to China and Vietnam have been around $22.9 billion and $22 billion, respectively.
据国际货币基金组织（IMF）数据，越南对美出口额月均值激增逾400%，助推了全经济繁荣，自2022年以来，越南国内生产总值（GDP）年均增长7.4%。
That more than 400% rise in the value of Vietnam's monthly exports to the US helped fuel an economy-wide boom, with Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) posting an average annual expansion of 7.4% since 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.
这一增速在同期全球属于最快水平之一，进而带动越南全社会用电量持续增长，Ember数据显示，2022年至2025年间，越南总用电量年均增速达6%。
That growth pace was one of the world's fastest during that period, and in turn triggered sustained growth in Vietnam's total electricity consumption, which expanded at an average rate of 6% a year between 2022 and 2025, data from Ember shows.
越南电力系统高度依赖煤电，自2019年以来，燃煤电厂占公用事业供电总量的比重平均约为49%。
Vietnam's electricity system is heavily reliant on coal, with coal-fired power stations accounting for an average of around 49% of total utility supplies since 2019.
相比之下，全球发电量中煤电占比约三分之一，这意味着越南的电力系统对煤电的依赖程度远高于大多数国家。
By comparison, coal accounts for around a third of electricity generation globally, which means that Vietnam has a substantially more coal-dependent power system than most.
不过，越南电力结构中煤电占比会因某一年替代电源的可获得性而大幅波动。
However, coal's share of Vietnam's power mix can fluctuate significantly depending on the availability of alternative power sources in any given year.
例如，2022年得益于水电产量强劲以及国际煤价飙升，促使几乎所有对成本敏感的电力系统都削减了煤电使用，煤电占比仅为38.5%。
For instance, coal only accounted for 38.5% of the power mix in 2022 thanks to strong hydro production that year as well as a surge in international coal prices, which spurred nearly all cost-sensitive power systems to pare back coal use.
2026年以来，由于水电产量降至2023年以来最低，煤电在发电结构中的占比平均接近52%。
So far in 2026, coal's share has averaged nearly 52% of the generation mix due to the lowest hydro production tally since 2023.
这一占比是自2020年以来同期最高，导致电力部门排放量同比激增16%，达到创纪录的1.29亿公吨二氧化碳当量，Ember数据显示。
That coal share is the highest for that period since 2020, and has resulted in a 16% jump in power sector emissions to a record 129 million metric tons of carbon dioxide and equivalent gases so far this year, data from Ember shows.
且水电产量高峰期已过，煤电使用量和煤电排放量仍有望进一步增加，这将使2026年成为越南依赖煤电程度的纪录之年。
And with the peak hydro production period already passed, additional gains in both coal use and coal emissions are likely, which will help cement 2026 as a record for Vietnam's coal power reliance.
从长远来看，根据全球能源监测组织的数据，越南确实有大量非煤电装机容量在建，包括约11吉瓦（GW）燃气发电、1.4吉瓦新增水电装机容量，以及约1.3吉瓦风电装机容量。
Over the longer term, Vietnam does have significant non-coal power capacity under construction, including around 11 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power, 1.4 GW of new hydro capacity, and around 1.3 GW of wind capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor.
但同时也在建设额外2.7吉瓦新建燃煤电厂，此后还规划了2.6吉瓦。
But there are also an additional 2.7 GW of new coal plants being built, with a further 2.6 GW planned after that.
这意味着，在赢得美国进口需求不断增长的份额后，越南似乎将主要依靠煤电为该生产提供动力。
That means that, having won a growing share of the US import demand, Vietnam looks set to primarily power that production with coal.
这反过来可能有助于保持商品生产成本相对较低，但也伴随着自身的气候代价，当美国进口商的供应链接受审查时，他们可能不得不面对这一代价。此处表达的观点为作者、路透社专栏作家的个人观点。
That in turn may serve to keep the cost of goods production relatively low, but comes with its own climate price tag that US importers may have to wrestle with as and when their supply chains come under scrutiny. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.