美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提出可能发动另一次美国军事行动，与此同时伊朗正准备报复计划。冲突再度升级可能威胁地区稳定、能源价格和海湾通信基础设施。
Donald Trump raised the possibility of another US operation as Iran prepared retaliatory plans. Renewed escalation could threaten regional stability, energy prices and Gulf communications infrastructure.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，华盛顿可能对伊朗发动另一次军事行动，随着冲突进入第八个月，重燃攻击的前景浮现。据路透社援引伊朗安全官员报道，德黑兰已制定计划，如果美国和以色列恢复军事行动，将以海湾海底通信电缆为目标。
US President Donald Trump said Washington could launch another military operation against Iran, raising the prospect of renewed attacks as the conflict approaches its eighth month. Tehran, meanwhile, has drawn up plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the United States and Israel resume their military campaign, according to Iranian security officials cited by Reuters.
“我们可能会再搞一次‘小规模的史诗之怒’行动，”特朗普周五在佛罗里达州的一次集会上表示，指的是美军对其对伊朗战争的代号，该战争始于2月28日。他未就另一次行动的可能性作进一步阐述。
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said at a rally in Florida on Friday, referring to the name given by the US military to its war against Iran, which began on February 28. He did not elaborate on the possibility of another operation.
此番言论发表之际，战争持续时间充满不确定性，燃料价格上涨，且外界担忧任何新的升级将带来经济和地区层面的连锁反应。在美国和以色列对伊朗的打击以及以色列对黎巴嫩的攻击中，已有数千人丧生，数百万人流离失所。
The remarks came amid uncertainty over the war’s duration, rising fuel prices and concerns about the economic and regional fallout of any fresh escalation. Thousands of people have been killed and millions displaced in US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
特朗普称美国可迅速结束战争 周五早些时候，特朗普表示美国能迅速终结这场战争，但质疑华盛顿是否应寻求立即结束，还是让冲突逐渐失去动力。
TRUMP SAYS US COULD END WAR QUICKLY Earlier on Friday, Trump said the United States could bring the war to an end quickly but questioned whether Washington should pursue an immediate conclusion or allow the conflict to gradually lose momentum.
“我们可以非常迅速地结束它，”特朗普在白宫南草坪对记者说。“问题是我们想结束它，还是让它自生自灭。”
“We could end it very quickly,” Trump told reporters on the White House South Lawn. “Do we want to finish it or let it wither is the question.”
他还表示，石油仍在通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，这是全球能源供应的重要航运路线，并补充道：“我们得到了想要的一切。”特朗普对这场冲突提出了不断变化的目标和时间表。本月早些时候，他说美国不会在下个月的中期选举前对伊朗发动袭击，届时国会控制权将面临角逐。这些言论是在华盛顿和德黑兰据报正在就结束战争进行讨论之际发表的。
He also said oil was continuing to move through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global energy supplies, adding, “We are getting everything we want.”Trump has offered shifting goals and timelines for the conflict. Earlier this month, he said the United States would not launch an attack on Iran before next month's midterm elections, in which control of Congress is at stake. The comments came as Washington and Tehran were reportedly engaged in discussions on ending the war.
《纽约时报》周三的一份报道称，美以军方已制定了中期选举后恢复打击的计划。援引美国官员的话，报道称潜在目标包括伊朗的能源基础设施、核设施以及导弹和无人机武库。
A report by The New York Times on Wednesday said US and Israeli militaries had drawn up plans for renewed strikes after the midterm elections. Citing US officials, it said potential targets included Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenal.
法国、土耳其警告不要重新升级 多国外长周五警告称，对伊朗的又一次军事进攻可能扩大冲突并引发进一步的经济后果。他们的言论是在伊斯坦布尔举行的一次会议后发表的，与会者包括英国、法国、德国、土耳其、埃及、巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯和意大利的代表。
FRANCE, TURKEY WARN AGAINST RENEWED ESCALATION Foreign ministers from several countries warned on Friday that another military offensive against Iran could widen the conflict and trigger further economic consequences. Their comments followed a meeting in Istanbul attended by representatives from Britain, France, Germany, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Italy.
土耳其外长哈坎·费丹表示，新的袭击将加剧紧张局势并将战争扩大到整个地区，强调外交和对话是结束冲突的唯一途径。
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said a fresh attack would exacerbate tensions and expand the war across the region, stressing that diplomacy and dialogue were the only way to end the conflict.
“我们都一致认为，对伊朗的新袭击将使地区战争扩大，”费丹说。“对伊朗的军事干预绝不是解决办法。目前没人赞成这一点。”法国外长让-诺埃尔·巴罗也警告不要进一步升级，称这将导致无赢家，并可能推高油价。
“We are all in agreement that a new attack on Iran would expand the war in the region,” Fidan said. “A military intervention on Iran is not in any way a solution. Nobody approves this at the moment.”French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also cautioned against further escalation, warning that it would leave no winners and could push up oil prices.
“伊朗与美国进一步升级冲突将没有赢家，且极可能对碳氢化合物价格造成非常严重的后果，”巴罗说。
“A further escalation between Iran and the United States would leave no winners and would likely have very serious consequences for hydrocarbon prices,” Barrot said.
德国外交部长约翰·瓦德福尔表示，德国、法国和英国已准备好与伊朗谈判，以确保其不获取核武器。各国外长还讨论了对沙特阿拉伯和也门的支持，以及恢复与也门胡塞武装进行实质性谈判的可能性。
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany, France and Britain were ready to negotiate with Iran to ensure it does not acquire nuclear weapons. The ministers also discussed support for Saudi Arabia and Yemen and the possibility of resuming concrete negotiations with Yemen's Houthi rebels.
作为北约成员国，土耳其一直与华盛顿、德黑兰及地区调解人保持联系，以求结束战争。费丹表示，各方讨论了防止冲突进一步蔓延的可能参数，但未提供细节。
Turkey, a NATO member, has remained in contact with Washington, Tehran and regional mediators in an effort to end the war. Fidan said the countries had discussed possible parameters to prevent the conflict from spreading further, without providing details.
伊朗制定计划以袭击海底电缆 随着对军事行动重燃的担忧加剧，两名伊朗高级安全官员向路透社透露，德黑兰已制定详细计划，如果美国和以色列再次袭击伊朗，将以波斯湾的海底通信电缆为目标。
IRAN DRAWS UP PLANS TO TARGET UNDERSEA CABLES As fears of renewed military action grow, Tehran has prepared detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the United States and Israel attack Iran again, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters.
这两名官员以匿名为条件发言，对伊朗可能如何、在何处实施此类袭击提供的细节很少。其中一名官员表示，伊朗将在切断任何电缆后设法阻止维修，从而延长互联网连接和其他通信的中断时间。
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, gave few details about how or where Iran might carry out such attacks. One said Tehran would seek to prevent repairs after any cable cuts, prolonging disruptions to internet connections and other communications.
“如果伊朗遭到袭击，将不再有任何红线……从海底电缆到军事基地，包括秘密基地，”一名官员说，并警告华盛顿不要“玩火”。该官员声称伊朗完全掌握这些电缆，并能摧毁它们。
“If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines ... from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones,” one official said, warning Washington not to “play with fire”. The official claimed Iran had full access to the cables and could destroy them.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）政治事务副主任亚多拉·贾瓦尼周三表示，如果伊朗基础设施遭到袭击，伊朗可将目标瞄准霍尔木兹海峡下的七条主要互联网电缆。
Yadollah Javani, deputy head of political affairs for Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), said on Wednesday that Iran could target seven major internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz if Iranian infrastructure came under attack.
这些威胁反映了伊朗领导层内部的担忧，即任何重燃的美国军事行动都必须以比上一次进攻更强有力的回应来应对。伊朗安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊也警告称，海湾地区与美国相关的数字基础设施，包括数据中心和人工智能设施，可能成为攻击目标。
The threats reflect concerns within Iran's leadership that any renewed US military campaign would have to be met with a stronger response than the previous offensive. Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei has also warned that US-linked digital infrastructure across the Gulf, including data centres and artificial intelligence facilities, could be targeted.
第二位伊朗官员表示，海湾国家在技术基础设施上投入巨资，应让华盛顿对海底光缆的任何损坏负责。
The second Iranian official said Gulf countries, which have invested heavily in technology infrastructure, should hold Washington responsible for any damage to undersea cables.
华盛顿中东研究所伊朗项目主任亚历克斯·瓦坦卡表示，这些威胁似乎旨在通过让海湾政府和美国公司担忧其投资面临的风险，从而阻止另一场冲突的爆发。
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the threats appeared aimed at deterring another conflict by making Gulf governments and US companies concerned about the risks to their investments.
瓦坦卡说：“德黑兰希望海湾国家和企业高管向特朗普施压，迫使其关注其政策对其投资计划构成的风险。”海底光缆攻击如何扰乱互联网服务根据联合国机构国际电信联盟的数据，海底光缆承载着全球约99%的互联网流量。然而，电信研究公司TeleGeography的研究总监艾伦·莫尔丁表示，霍尔木兹海峡发生的攻击对全球连通性的影响可能有限，因为通过该海峡的国际带宽不到1%。
“Tehran wants Gulf states and corporate executives to press Trump over the risks his policies pose to their investment plans,” Vatanka said. HOW CABLE ATTACKS COULD DISRUPT INTERNET SERVICES Undersea cables carry around 99 per cent of global internet traffic, according to the International Telecommunication Union, a United Nations agency. However, the impact of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz on global connectivity could be limited because less than 1 per cent of international bandwidth passes through the strait, said Alan Mauldin, research director at telecommunications research firm TeleGeography.
尽管如此，多条光缆被切断仍可能拖慢互联网服务，并扰乱金融交易、电子商务和云计算。中断的程度将取决于运营商重新路由流量的速度，以及替代网络是否具备足够的容量。
Multiple cable cuts could nevertheless slow internet services and disrupt financial transactions, e-commerce and cloud computing. The extent of the disruption would depend on how quickly operators could reroute traffic and whether alternative networks had enough capacity.
在战时，维修可能变得尤为困难，更高的保险成本以及在获准进入领海的许可方面出现的延误，可能会延长中断时间。
Repairs could prove especially difficult during wartime, with higher insurance costs and delays in securing permits to enter territorial waters potentially prolonging outages.
红海可能比霍尔木兹海峡提供更重要的目标，特别是如果伊朗获得也门胡塞武装盟友的支持。德黑兰尚未公开表示打算以红海海底电缆为目标。根据莫尔丁的说法，经过该水道的路线约占全球国际需求的3%，以及区域间流量的约10%。
The Red Sea could offer a more significant target than the Strait of Hormuz, particularly if Iran received support from its Houthi allies in Yemen. Tehran has not publicly indicated that it intends to target cables in the Red Sea. According to Mauldin, routes through the waterway account for about 3 per cent of global international demand and roughly 10 per cent of traffic travelling between regions.
海湾国家技术投资面临风险 海湾国家在技术基础设施上投入巨资，旨在实现经济多元化、摆脱对石油的依赖，并确立其作为全球人工智能中心的地位。这些雄心也加深了它们与美国科技公司的联系。
GULF TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS AT RISK Gulf countries have invested heavily in technology infrastructure as they seek to diversify their economies beyond oil and establish themselves as global artificial intelligence hubs. Those ambitions have also deepened their ties with US technology companies.
今年3月，伊朗的袭击直接击中阿联酋的两个亚马逊云科技设施，并损坏了巴林其一个设施附近的基础设施。在当月冲突最激烈之际，伊斯兰革命卫队还将微软、谷歌、苹果和英伟达等美国科技公司列为合法目标。
Iranian strikes directly hit two Amazon Web Services facilities in the United Arab Emirates in March and damaged infrastructure near one of its facilities in Bahrain. At the height of the war that month, the IRGC also named US technology companies, including Microsoft, Google, Apple and Nvidia, as legitimate targets.
陆基连接可为互联网流量提供替代路线，而海湾各国政府和美国科技公司正在投资额外基础设施，以提高网络弹性。
Land-based connections can offer alternative routes for internet traffic, while Gulf governments and US technology firms are investing in additional infrastructure to improve network resilience.
微软计划到2030年在中东地区的海底和陆地连接方面投资超过4亿美元。
Microsoft plans to invest more than $400 million in subsea and terrestrial connectivity across the Middle East by 2030.