Hernandez de Cos is most likely to succeed Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank, though his main contender is isn’t far behind, according to a survey of economists.

De Cos, a former Spanish central-bank governor who currently heads the Bank for International Settlements, is considered the frontrunner by 12 of those surveyed, with nine backing Dutchman Klaas Knot.

The battle looks set to play out long before the end of Lagarde’s tenure in October 2027, with only a third of respondents expecting her to see out her term, down sharply from almost 60% in the last poll. More than two-thirds see Lagarde leaving by April 2027, while a quarter anticipate a departure in January.

Speculation about Lagarde’s imminent exit and the debate over her successor is ramping up after the ECB chief said she may leave “a few months” early. There’s talk Lagarde could step aside in early 2027, probably to become the next chair of the World Economic Forum. She also plans to publish a memoir in January.

A wider revamp of the Executive Board is underway, with Germany’s Isabel Schnabel recently announcing her premature departure to the IMF in January 2027. Chief Economist Philip Lane’s eight-year term also ends in May.

EU leaders would like to agree on a package for the three roles and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said this week that a rapid solution can be found to the senior vacancies.

“If it’s needed, we will come to a very quick solution on the board,” he told Bloomberg Television, referring to the replacement of Schnabel and “potentially the president.”