欧洲央行行长竞争进入决胜阶段，此前行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示将提前离任，荷兰和西班牙领衔的候选人名单还可能扩大。
The race to lead the European Central Bank is entering its decisive phase after President Christine Lagarde said she’d depart early, with the Netherlands and Spain heading a field that could yet expand.
随着拉加德准备于2月卸任，欧元区21个成员国很可能力争在年底前就继任人选达成一致，由其领导这3.6亿人口地区的货币政策。这将是一揽子协议的一部分，其中还包括首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩和执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的职位安排。
As Lagarde prepares to step aside in February, the euro zone’s 21 member states will probably aim to agree on a successor to lead monetary policy across the region’s 360 million people by year-end. This will be part of a grand bargain including the roles of chief economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
行长候选人此前已在游说欧洲各国首都争取支持，但真正的谈判现在才开始。各国政府希望欧洲央行行长不仅能将通胀率带回2%，还能应对复杂的地缘政治，并在债券市场动荡和大规模人工智能投资面前维护金融稳定。以下是热门候选人和部分相对不被看好候选人的概况。
While candidates for the presidency had already been lobbying European capitals for support, the real negotiating begins now. Governments will want an ECB president who can not only return inflation to 2% but also navigate complex geopolitics and maintain financial stability in the face of bond-market turbulence and massive AI investment. Below is an overview of the front-runners and some less favored candidates.
据彭博社调查的分析师称，前西班牙央行行长、现任国际清算银行行长巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德科斯是接替拉加德的领跑者。
Former Spanish central-bank Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who now heads the Bank for International Settlements, is the frontrunner to take over from Lagarde, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
首相佩德罗·桑切斯9月为这位55岁的候选人背书，称“他具备领导力，也具备胜任该职位的能力和知识”。虽然桑切斯在11月29日的提前大选中面临败选，但潜在赢家、由阿尔韦托·努涅斯·费霍领导的中右翼人民党也已表示支持德科斯，后者1997年在西班牙央行开启职业生涯。
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez endorsed the 55-year-old in September, saying that “he has the leadership, also the capacity and the knowledge” for that role. While Sanchez is heading for defeat in snap elections on Nov. 29, the potential winner, the center-right People’s Party, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has also already signaled support for de Cos, who began his career at Spain’s central bank in 1997.
他的继任者何塞·路易斯·埃斯克里瓦在9月表示，德科斯将获得欧元区其他国家的认真支持。虽然德科斯“不是唯一”的竞争者，但埃斯克里瓦强调，他的前任拥有“相当多的支持”。德科斯曾被视为鸽派，如果他离开国际清算银行，将在全球央行界腾出另一个高层职位。然而，该机构声誉受损的风险，以及可能由非欧洲人担任国际清算银行职务的可能性，可能会阻碍他。德科斯的前任是墨西哥的阿古斯丁·卡斯滕斯。
His successor, José Luis Escrivá, said in September that de Cos is set to get serious backing from other euro-area countries. While he’s “not the only” contender, Escriva stressed that his predecessor has “considerable support.”If de Cos, who was considered a dove, were to leave the BIS, it would open up another high-level position in the global central-banking community. The risk of reputational damage to the institution and the possibility of a non-European taking the BIS role, however, could stand in his way. De Cos’ predecessor was Mexico’s Agustin Carstens.
荷兰政府于8月支持前央行行长克拉斯·诺特出任欧洲央行最高职位，使他成为接替拉加德的第一个正式候选人。首相罗布·耶滕在9月表示，这位59岁的人选将“非常适合”“许多欧洲国家”。诺特还曾担任金融稳定委员会主席，目前经营自己的咨询公司，他通过出席会议保持着全球影响力。
The Dutch government backed former central-bank chief Klaas Knot for the ECB’s top job in August, making him the first official candidate to succeed Lagarde. Prime Minister Rob Jetten said in September that the 59-year-old would be “a perfect fit” for “a lot of European countries.”Knot, who’s also chaired the Financial Stability Board and currently runs his own consulting firm, is maintaining a global presence through conference appearances.
即便如此，一些人认为他自2025年中期离开荷兰央行以来的较长空档期是一个不利因素。其他人则指出，荷兰已经通过维姆·杜伊森贝赫担任过一次欧洲央行行长。
Even so, some see the long stretch since he left the Dutch central bank in mid-2025 as a drawback. Others point out that the Netherlands has already held the ECB presidency once, through Wim Duisenberg.
诺特被广泛认为是货币政策鹰派，并曾与时任行长马里奥·德拉吉因其扩张性政策偶尔发生冲突。然而，他后来缓和了自己的观点，并在2019年拉加德被选中之前，被视为接替德拉吉的潜在妥协候选人。
Knot was widely deemed a monetary-policy hawk and clashed occasionally with former President Mario Draghi over the latter’s expansionary policies. He went on to moderate his views, however, and was considered a potential compromise candidate to replace Draghi back in 2019, before Lagarde was selected.
他在10月表示，经济和地缘政治动荡意味着欧洲央行在未来几年可能需要采取略微偏向货币紧缩的政策立场。
He said in October that economic and geopolitical disruptions mean the ECB may need to embrace a policy stance in the coming years that has a modest tilt toward monetary tightening.
彭博经济研究称……“诺特可能会主持一段比德科斯略微收紧的货币政策时期。前者可能也不太热衷于干预法国债券市场。”——戴维·鲍威尔和西蒙娜·德莱·基亚耶柏林曾短暂考虑过让德国央行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔作为本国候选人，纳格尔表示，“欧洲央行管理委员会的每一位央行行长可能都具备接任的合适能力”，并称“拥有其他背景”的外部人士也有机会。拉加德本人在获得意外提名之前，也曾被认为不太可能出任该职。
What Bloomberg Economics Says...“Knot would likely preside over a period of somewhat tighter monetary policy than de Cos. The former would also probably be less keen on intervening in the French bond market.”—David Powell and Simona Delle Chiaie. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, whom Berlin had briefly considered as its own candidate, has said “every central banker on the ECB Governing Council probably has the right skills to take over,” and that outsiders “with other profiles” have a chance too. Lagarde herself was considered unlikely before her unexpected nomination.
有时被提及的其他名字还包括意大利央行行长法比奥·帕内塔——他曾在2020年至2023年担任欧洲央行执行委员会成员——以及欧洲投资银行行长纳迪娅·卡尔维尼奥，后者曾任西班牙副首相。
Other names sometimes mentioned include Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta, an ECB Executive Board member from 2020 to 2023, and European Investment Bank President Nadia Calvino, a former Spanish deputy prime minister.
卡尔维尼奥已排除参选的可能，称自己“绝对处在应该待的位置上”。但拉加德在接任该职仅数月前也曾作出类似的否认，而政界人士可能会倾向于任命一位女性。
Calvino has ruled out running, saying she’s “definitely where I should be.”But Lagarde made similar denials just months before taking the job, and politicians may look to appoint a woman.