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阿尔伯塔省公投会助长更两极化的移民辩论吗?Will the Alberta referendum feed a more polarized immigration debate?

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尽管总理马克·卡尼在艾伯塔省投票前重复“对九个省说不”的口号时引起了一些争议,但他此前也曾表示,他倾向于赋予所有省份在移民问题上有更多的发言权。(约翰·于兰/加拿大通讯社)While Prime Minister Mark Carney raised some eyebrows when he repeated the 'no to the nine' slogan before Alberta's vote, he had also suggested he was inclined to give all provinces more input on immigration. (John Ulan/The Canadian Press)

公投往往引发的问题与解决的问题一样多。阿尔伯塔省省长丹尼尔·史密斯向全省选民提交的这份包含10个问题的问卷恐怕也不例外——尽管阿尔伯塔人以一连串的“否”票,似乎堵死了多种可能性。

Referendums tend to raise as many questions as they answer. And so it may be for the 10-part questionnaire that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith put to her province — although with a series of no's Albertans have seemingly foreclosed on a number of possibilities.

“我非常清楚,阿尔伯塔与渥太华之间的不满并非全部得到解决,”史密斯周二晚间对阿尔伯塔人表示。“我们仍面临许多政治和宪法层面的斗争。”在阿尔伯塔是否应留在加拿大的问题上,答案毫无悬念。选择第一项(留在加拿大)的选民占75%,这一比例明显高于1980年魁北克公投的结果。在投给第二项(举行另一次公投)的25%选民中,也有理由追问:究竟有多少人真心希望分离独立?据Abacus Data统计,支持第二项的阿尔伯塔人中,仅有32%将“使阿尔伯塔成为独立国家”作为首要动机。

"I am well aware that not every grievance Alberta has with Ottawa has been resolved," Smith told Albertans on Tuesday night. "There are still many political and constitutional battles ahead of us." On the question of whether Alberta should remain in Canada the answer was not close. The 75 per cent of voters who chose the first option is decidedly more decisive than the 1980 referendum in Quebec Of the 25 per cent who voted for another referendum, it is also fair to ask how many genuinely want secession. According to Abacus Data making Alberta an independent country was the primary motivation for just 32 per cent of Albertans who favoured Option 2.

无论史密斯对未来宪法斗争的胃口如何,阿尔伯塔选民也表现得缺乏热情:所有关于阿尔伯塔是否应推动宪法修正的四个问题,均以“否”作答。甚至连一个关于废除参议院的问题——这可能是加拿大历史上最受诟病的公共机构——也未能凑齐阿尔伯塔人的简单多数支持。

Whatever Smith's appetite for future constitutional battles, Albertan voters also proved to be unenthusiastic: all four questions about whether Alberta should pursue constitutional amendments were answered with a "no." Not even a question about abolishing the Senate — possibly the most-maligned public institution in Canada history — was able to muster even a simple majority of Albertans.

“我们有理由怀疑,某些宪法修正未必值得付出如此努力……我看到的是,阿尔伯塔人宁愿我们把时间花在能带来实质性变革的事情上,”史密斯周三在新闻发布会上表示(当时四个宪法问题中已有两个在计票过程中被否决)。

"There's a reason to be skeptical that some constitutional amendments would be worth the effort and ... what I'm seeing is that Albertans would just rather that we spend our time focusing on things where we can make some meaningful change," Smith said at a news conference on Wednesday (at the time, two of the four constitutional questions were being answered in the negative as results were still being tallied).

“这就是为什么我认为移民问题与……或许宪法问题的数据会有这么大的不同。”除了史密斯自身的政治前途之外,她的公投引发的最未决的问题都与移民有关——其中的问题之一是,它们是否会助长关于加拿大移民政策的更加两极分化的国家辩论。

"That's why I think the numbers were so different on the immigration questions versus … perhaps the constitutional ones." Beside Smith's own political future the most unresolved questions raised by her referendum concern immigration — and one of the questions now is whether they will feed into a more polarized national debate on Canada's immigration policy.

移民问题成艾伯塔省选票焦点 在史密斯的10个问题中,有4个涉及移民或针对新来者的潜在新规则。在其官方公投网站上,史密斯政府声称,“过去10年不可持续的移民水平”对艾伯塔省“资助和有效提供医疗保健和教育等社会服务的能力产生了深远影响——直接影响了艾伯塔人获得这些服务的机会,并花费了纳税人数十亿美元。”艾伯塔省新民主党领袖南希(Naheed Nenshi)辩称,史密斯是在将移民“当成替罪羊”。

Immigration on the ballot in Alberta Of Smith's 10 questions, four concerned either immigration or potential new rules for newcomers. On its official referendum website Smith's government claimed that "unsustainable immigration levels over the past 10 years" had "a profound impact" on Alberta's ability "to fund and effectively deliver social services like health care and education — directly impacting Albertans' access to these services and costing taxpayers billions of dollars." Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi argued Smith was "scapegoating" immigrants.

南希在接受加拿大广播公司(CBC)本周节目采访时表示:“现实情况是,即便你把所有年轻、健康的临时外国劳工从医疗系统中剔除,即便你剥夺难民儿童接受公立教育的权利,也不会让急诊室的排队队伍变短一点。这不会让你的教室变小。这不会让任何人的生活变得更好。”

"The reality of the matter is even if you took all the young, healthy temporary foreign workers out of the health-care system, even if you denied public education to refugee children, it's not going to make the emergency room lineups any less," Nenshi told CBC's this week "It's not going to make your classrooms any smaller. It's not going to make anyone's life better."

略低于55%的选民支持以下提案:艾伯塔省政府应“加强对移民的控制,以将移民数量降至更可持续的水平”。

Just under 55 per cent of voters supported the proposition that the Alberta government should take "increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels."

丹妮尔·史密斯称艾伯塔省的分离主义联合保守党成员可以“加入不同的政党” 10月21日 时长 三个提出限制新来者或临时居民获取医疗保健、教育及艾伯塔省其他社会服务的方式或时间的提案,获得了52.4%、53.1%和52%的较窄多数支持。

Danielle Smith says Alberta separatist UCP members can 'join a different party' October 21 Duration Three questions that floated possible limitations on how or when newcomers or temporary residents can access health care, education and other social services in Alberta were supported by narrower majorities of 52.4, 53.1 and 52 per cent.

史密斯政府在阿尔伯塔省立法会拥有多数席位,推进上述任何举措都不需要举行公投。但结果——尤其是在卡尔加里,没有一项移民问题获得多数支持——可能会让史密斯有理由犹豫。

Smith's government has a majority in the Alberta legislature and it didn't need a referendum to pursue any of these initiatives. But the results — notably, none of the immigration questions won a majority in Calgary — may give Smith reason to hesitate.

在周三的新闻发布会上,省长表示她准备就第一个问题迅速采取行动,但针对第二、三、四个问题将“谨慎推进”。她说她不想影响已经在阿尔伯塔省居住的任何人。

At her news conference on Wednesday, the premier suggested she was prepared to act quickly on the first question, but she would "proceed with caution" in response to questions two, three and four. She said she did not want to impact anyone who was already residing in Alberta.

总理马克·卡尼在阿尔伯塔省投票前重复“不给九人组”口号,引起一些人的侧目;但他也曾表示倾向于让所有省份在移民问题上拥有更多发言权。

While Prime Minister Mark Carney raised some eyebrows when he repeated the "no to the nine" slogan before Alberta's vote, he had also suggested he was inclined to give all provinces more input on immigration.

“坦白说,我不需要公投来告诉我们要加强与各省在移民问题上的合作,”卡尼在阿尔伯塔省投票前几天对环球新闻表示。“我认为这就是我们要去的方向。”但阿尔伯塔省的移民问题也引起了保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫的关注。

"To be candid, I don't need a referendum to tell us to co-operate more with the provinces on immigration," Carney told Global News a few days before Alberta's vote. "I think that's where we're headed." But Alberta's immigration questions also caught the attention of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

日益两极化的辩论:“我认为总理告诉加拿大人和阿尔伯塔人,他们应该投票支持继续给予非法滞留者豪华的纳税人福利,这是不恰当的,”波利耶夫说。“总理建议阿尔伯塔人投票支持继续大规模、未经审查、失控的移民,这是一个错误。”

An increasingly polarized debate "I thought it was inappropriate for the prime minister to tell Canadians and tell Albertans that they should vote to continue to give deluxe taxpayer benefits to people who are illegally here," Poilievre said. "And for the prime minister to suggest that Albertans vote in favor of continued mass, unvetted, out of control immigration was a mistake."

保守党周二还向支持者发出筹款呼吁,承诺保守党政府将“大幅减少移民”。卡尼政府辩称,在采取措施遏制国际学生和临时工涌入后,移民已“受到控制”。保守党显然不同意。

The Conservative Party also sent a fundraising appeal to supporters on Tuesday that promised a Conservative government would "dramatically reduce immigration." The Carney government argues that it has immigration "under control" after steps were taken to curb the intake of international students and temporary workers. The Conservatives obviously disagree.

保守党指责政府在移民数据呈现上“造假” 但阿尔伯塔省公投也正值重燃关于加拿大移民辩论的两个触发点之间。

Conservatives accuse government of 'cooking the books' over immigration data presentation But the Alberta referendum also landed between two triggers for renewed debate about immigration to Canada.

上个月,卡尼在接受《纽约时报》采访讨论移民政策时表示:“现在的问题开始变成:我们何时恢复某种受控的人口增长,这才是加拿大的本质?这将会发生,我们只想确保一切都在掌控之中。”现在联邦政府即将提交最新的移民水平计划,该计划设定了未来几年永久和临时居民的接收目标(严格来说,新计划须在11月1日前提交,但去年的计划包含在秋季财政声明中)。周三,卡尼对记者表示,他的政府“不会在总体可持续水平上退让”。但什么构成“可持续”恐怕还得争论。

First, in discussing immigration policy during an interview with the New York Times last month, Carney said, "now the question starts to become: When do we resume some controlled increase in the population, which is the nature of Canada? So that will happen, and we just want to make sure that we've got it under control." Now the federal government is due to table its latest immigration levels plan which sets out targets for the next few years for both permanent and temporary arrivals (technically, a new plan is due by Nov. 1, but last year's plan was included in the fall budget Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Carney said his government "will not budge from overall levels that are sustainable." But what constitutes "sustainable" is likely a matter of debate.

周四,在一次新闻发布会上,保守党移民事务评论员米歇尔·伦佩尔·加纳认为,“大规模移民”压低了工资、推高了房租,令企业牟利者获益。她表示,保守党将“强力反对马克·卡尼任何继续提高并维持高移民水平的企图”,并“将推动他降低移民水平”。关于“加拿大在移民问题上的共识已破裂”的说法有时被夸大了。加拿大人仍认为移民对经济净利大于弊,但他们也认为近期的移民水平过高,这在很大程度上是由对住房供应和可负担性的担忧所驱动的。

At a news conference on Thursday, Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner argued "mass immigration" was suppressing wages and driving up rents, to the benefit of corporate profiteers. Conservatives, she said, will "vigorously oppose any attempt by Mark Carney to continue to raise and sustain high immigration levels" and "will push him to lower them." Claims that the "Canadian consensus" on immigration has been broken are sometimes overstated Canadians still believe immigration is a net-positive for the economy, but they also believe recent immigration levels have been too high, driven in large part by concerns about the availability and affordability of housing.

Environics Institute(环境研究所)的民调也显示,政治光谱上的分歧正在扩大,保守党选民更倾向于认为移民过多。政党本身也可能正在进一步分化。

Polling by the Environics Institute has also shown a growing gap along the political spectrum, with Conservative voters much more inclined to say there is too much immigration. And the parties themselves may be getting further apart.

无论这种增加多么必要,这都不是建立大幅新增移民最稳固的基础。

That is not the most stable foundation on which to build significant new increases in immigration, however much such increases might be necessary.

如果目标依然是尽可能保持开放和包容——如果这样做存在经济上的必要性——那么“谨慎行事”或许对各方都是明智的建议。

If the goal remains to be as open and welcoming as possible — if there is an economic imperative to being so — "proceed with caution" might be good advice for all sides.

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