
基辅,乌克兰——乌克兰和俄罗斯已表示愿意恢复由美国斡旋的和平谈判,并支持由第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普牵头的一项人道主义任务。但本周重新浮现的围绕领土和安全保障的深刻分歧,凸显出结束这场战争的障碍。
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine and Russia have signaled their willingness to resume U.S.-brokered peace talks and are backing a humanitarian mission led by First lady Melania Trump. But deep disagreements over territory and security guarantees that re-emerged this week underscore obstacles to ending the war.
这一新的外交推动发生在战事持续四年半多之后,并带来周五的一项意外宣布:在梅拉尼娅·特朗普与俄罗斯和乌克兰的平民谈判代表进行秘密磋商后,基辅和莫斯科已同意在当地实施停火,以便下周向乌克兰南部战火分裂的赫尔松地区一座受困城镇运送援助物资。
The new diplomatic push comes after more than four and a half years of fighting, bringing with it a surprise announcement on Friday: Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to a local ceasefire to allow aid next week into a stranded town in Ukraine’s southern war-divided region of Kherson, following secret consultations between Melania Trump and civilian negotiators from Russia and Ukraine.
尽管这一倡议让人们燃起了未来开展类似人道主义任务的希望,但几乎没有迹象表明任何关键立场发生了转变。俄罗斯继续要求获得其并未完全控制的乌克兰领土,而基辅坚持认为,任何协议都必须包含防止再次遭入侵的可靠保障。
While the initiative raised hopes of similar humanitarian missions in the future, there were few indications that any of the key positions have shifted. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian territory it does not fully control, while Kyiv insists any agreement must include ironclad guarantees against another invasion.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京表示他“原则上”同意重启谈判,但数小时之内,俄罗斯便向基辅发动了一轮致命的弹道导弹和无人机袭击。莫斯科当天表示,已摧毁800多架飞向其城市的乌克兰无人机。以下是随着潜在谈判临近,两国立场的概览。
Within hours of Russian President Vladimir Putin saying he agreed “in principle” to restart talks, Russia launched a deadly barrage of ballistic missiles and drones on Kyiv. Moscow on the same day said it had destroyed more than 800 Ukrainian drones heading toward its cities. Here’s a look at where the two countries stand as potential negotiations loom.
和平谈判可能在11月中旬举行。美国总统特使史蒂夫·威特科夫本周往返于挪威奥斯陆和俄罗斯圣彼得堡之间,分别会见乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基和普京,从而争取到了最新的谈判承诺。
Peace talks likely in mid-November U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff secured the latest commitment to talks after shuttling between Oslo, Norway, and St. Petersburg, Russia, this week to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin. A new round of negotiations would be the fourth brokered by the Trump administration, following the most recent round in Geneva in February.
新一轮谈判将是特朗普政府斡旋的第四轮谈判,此前最近一轮于2月在日内瓦举行。
A Kremlin spokesman said that the next round of talks is likely to be held in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, around mid-November.
一名克里姆林宫发言人表示,下一轮会谈可能在11月中旬左右于阿联酋首都阿布扎比举行。支持这一和平倡议的西方国家政府正寻求新的方案以打破僵局,同时承认领土和安全问题仍未解决。
Western governments backing the peace initiative are seeking a new formula to break the impasse while acknowledging that territorial and security questions remain unresolved. Get breaking National news U.S. President Donald Trump’s ties with Zelenskyy, meanwhile, have sunk to a new low.
与此同时,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与泽连斯基的关系已降至新低。特朗普促成俄罗斯向美国供应柴油的协议,以及他最近拒绝实施新的对俄制裁,令莫斯科方面得到提振。
Moscow has been bolstered by Trump’s deal for Russia to supply the U.S. with diesel and his recent rejection of new Russia sanctions. Kyiv has been undermined by disruptions in satellite support for its drones after rejecting a call by the U.S. president to halt strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
在拒绝美国总统提出的停止打击俄罗斯石油基础设施的要求后,基辅方面因无人机卫星支持中断而受到削弱。乌克兰领导人担心,这些举动将助长普京的气焰,使他几乎没有动力在谈判桌上妥协。
Ukrainian leaders fear the moves will embolden Putin, giving him little incentive to compromise at the negotiating table. As Trump increased pressure on Zelenskyy, accusing him of being an obstacle to peace, Witkoff secured the release of an American who had been jailed for more than four years on charges of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine.
随着特朗普加大对泽连斯基的施压,指责他是和平的障碍,威特科夫促成了一名美国人的获释,此人因被控在乌克兰作为雇佣兵参战而被监禁四年多。这位特使在圣彼得堡与俄罗斯领导人会面时称对方为“人道主义者”——这一言论在乌克兰引起震惊。
The envoy described the Russian leader as a “humanitarian” at their meeting in St. Petersburg — a remark met with consternation in Ukraine. The two sides are still far apart While both sides back calls for new talks, Russia and Ukraine are still far apart on their terms for a settlement, while their armies remain locked on the battlefield and they pummel each other with daily long-range strikes.
双方仍相距甚远。尽管双方都支持举行新一轮会谈的呼吁,但俄罗斯和乌克兰在和解条件上仍相距甚远,与此同时两国军队仍在战场上僵持,并每日以远程打击互相攻击。
Central to Russia’s demands is full control of four Ukrainian regions it illegally annexed months after the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, in addition to Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014. Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine but has failed to capture all the territory in the regions over which it claims sovereignty.
俄罗斯的核心要求是全面控制其在2022年全面入侵开始数月后非法吞并的四个乌克兰地区:顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热和赫尔松,此外还有莫斯科于2014年夺取的克里米亚。
In a long list of demands, Moscow also wants Ukraine to withdraw forces from all four annexed regions, renounce its bid to join NATO, reduce the size of its military and drop restrictions against the Russian language and a Moscow-affiliated branch of the Orthodox Church.
俄罗斯目前占领着乌克兰约20%的领土,但未能拿下其声称拥有主权的这些地区的全部领土。
Speaking on state television late Thursday, Putin said Moscow remains “ready to negotiate and seek solutions to this difficult, complex situation,” before adding: “But if some prefer a different path, so be it.
在一份冗长的要求清单中,莫斯科还要求乌克兰从所有四个被吞并地区撤军,放弃加入北约的申请,缩减军队规模,并取消对俄语和一个与莫斯科有关联的东正教分支的限制。
In any case, all the objectives of the special military operation will be achieved.”
普京周四晚间在国家电视台上表示,莫斯科依然“准备好谈判并寻求解决这一困难、复杂局势的办法”,随后补充道:“但如果有人倾向于另一条道路,那就随他们去吧。无论如何,特别军事行动的所有目标都将实现。”泽连斯基——几个月来一直公开主张和平谈判——认为,放弃领土会让乌克兰更容易遭受未来的攻击。基辅视安全保障为防止俄罗斯未来重启战争的关键。
Zelenskyy — who for months has publicly advocated for peace talks — argues that giving up land would leave Ukraine more vulnerable to future attacks. Kyiv views security guarantees as essential to prevent Russia from restarting the war in the future. The Ukrainian president has reaffirmed support for a ceasefire that would freeze front-line positions, followed by talks on conditions for ending the war.
这位乌克兰总统重申支持一种将冻结前线位置的停火,随后再就结束战争的条件进行谈判。莫斯科拒绝在达成符合其条件的全面协议前停止敌对行动。
Moscow has rejected a break in hostilities until a comprehensive agreement on its terms is reached. Security guarantees remain unresolved While Kyiv and Moscow have maintained limited contact to organize prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers, previous talks have made no progress on the security arrangements needed to sustain a peace deal.
安全保障仍未解决 尽管基辅和莫斯科保持有限接触以组织战俘交换和遗体送返,但之前的谈判在维持和平协议所需的安全安排上未取得任何进展。
Ukraine believes security guarantees backed by Western allies are essential to any future settlement, ideally in the form of NATO membership — an option Vladimir Putin has rejected.
乌克兰认为,由西方盟友支持的安全保障是任何未来解决方案的关键,理想形式是加入北约——这一选项已被弗拉基米尔·普京拒绝。乌克兰预计将严重依赖本国军队作为主要安全保障,并获得盟友的资金支持。
Ukraine expects to heavily rely on its own army as the main security guarantee with financial backing from its allies. Other elements of security guarantees being discussed range from NATO membership, which the U.S. administration has currently ruled out, direct guarantees from the United States in what Zelenskyy has described as an “Article 5-like format” and backing by the European-led 30-country alliance known as the Coalition of the Willing.
正在讨论的安全保障其他要素范围从北约成员资格——美国政府目前已排除这一选项——到泽连斯基所描述的美国提供的“第五条款式”直接安全保障,以及由欧洲主导的30国联盟“自愿联盟”提供支持。
Article 5 of the NATO charter contains the alliance’s mutual-defense guarantee, which establishes that an attack on one is an attack on all.
北约宪章第5条包含该联盟的共同防御承诺,确立了“成员国之一受到攻击即视为所有成员国受到攻击”的原则。
“All of these guarantees are possible on the basis of a strong Ukrainian army — in terms of both numbers and quality — with clear funding, and not a small amount. Our colleagues in Europe and America know this,” Zelenskyy told reporters Thursday at a briefing.
泽连斯基周四在记者会上对记者说:“所有这些保障都建立在一支强大的乌克兰军队基础之上——无论是兵力数量还是素质——并需要明确的资金支持,且数额不小。我们在欧洲和美国的同事都知道这一点。”
Following the massive attacks on Kyiv and other cities this week, he argued that only increased Western pressure on Moscow would change its calculations about future peace talks.
在本周基辅及其他城市遭遇大规模袭击后,他主张只有加大西方对莫斯科的施压,才能改变其对未来和平谈判的考量。
“It is important to keep trying to find the right solutions to end this war,” Zelenskyy wrote in an online post.
泽连斯基在一篇网络帖文中写道:“重要的是要继续努力寻找结束这场战争的正确解决方案。但当俄罗斯以弹道导弹回应谈判时,需要对俄罗斯施加真正的压力,以促使其采取不同的步骤——迈向结束杀戮的步骤。”
“But when Russia responds to negotiations with ballistic missiles, real pressure on Russia is needed to bring about different steps — steps toward ending the killing.”