
杰里·加托普洛斯(DEREK GATOPOULOS) 苏西·布兰恩(SUSIE BLANN) 乌克兰基辅——乌克兰和俄罗斯已表示愿意恢复由美国从中斡旋的和平谈判,并支持一项由第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普(Melania Trump)领导的人道主义任务。但本周重新浮出水面的关于领土和安全保障的严重分歧,凸显了结束这场战争的重重障碍。
DEREK GATOPOULOS, SUSIE BLANN KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine and Russia have signaled their willingness to resume U.S.-brokered peace talks and are backing a humanitarian mission led by First Lady Melania Trump. But deep disagreements over territory and security guarantees that re-emerged this week underscore obstacles to ending the war.
在经过4年多的战斗之后,这股新的外交推动力带来了周五的一项意外宣布:在梅拉尼娅·特朗普与来自俄罗斯和乌克兰的民间谈判代表进行秘密磋商后,基辅和莫斯科已同意实施局部停火,以便于下周向乌克兰南部战区赫尔松一个受困城镇运送救援物资。虽然这一倡议让人燃起了未来开展类似人道主义任务的希望,但几乎没有迹象表明任何关键立场发生了改变。
The new diplomatic push comes after more than 4½ years of fighting , bringing with it a surprise announcement on Friday: Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to a local ceasefire to allow aid next week into a stranded town in Ukraine’s southern war-divided region of Kherson, following secret consultations between Melania Trump and civilian negotiators from Russia and Ukraine. While the initiative raised hopes of similar humanitarian missions in the future, there were few indications that any of the key positions have shifted.
俄罗斯继续索取其尚未完全控制的乌克兰领土,而基辅则坚称任何协议都必须包含防范再次入侵的铁律般保障。在俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)表示他“原则上”同意重启谈判的数小时内,俄罗斯就向基辅发射了一轮致命的弹道导弹和无人机。莫斯科同日表示,已摧毁了80多架飞往其城市的乌克兰无人机。以下是随着潜在谈判临近,两国立场的概况。
Russia continues to demand Ukrainian territory it does not fully control, while Kyiv insists any agreement must include ironclad guarantees against another invasion. Within hours of Russian President Vladimir Putin saying he agreed “in principle” to restart talks, Russia launched a deadly barrage of ballistic missiles and drones on Kyiv . Moscow on the same day said it had destroyed more than 800 Ukrainian drones heading toward its cities. Here’s a look at where the two countries stand as potential negotiations loom.
美国总统特使史蒂夫·威特科夫(Steve Witkoff)本周在挪威奥斯陆和俄罗斯圣彼得堡之间穿梭,会见了乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)和普京,随后获得了最新的谈判承诺。
U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff secured the latest commitment to talks after shuttling between Oslo, Norway, and St. Petersburg, Russia, this week to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin.
新一轮谈判将是特朗普政府斡旋的第四轮谈判,在此之前,最近的一轮谈判于2月在日内瓦举行。
A new round of negotiations would be the fourth brokered by the Trump administration, following the most recent round in Geneva in February.
克里姆林宫发言人表示,下一轮谈判很可能将在阿拉伯联合酋长国首都阿布扎比举行,时间大约在11月中旬。支持和平倡议的西方政府正在寻求一种新的公式来打破僵局,同时承认领土和安全问题仍未解决。
A Kremlin spokesman said that the next round of talks is likely to be held in Abu Dhabi , the capital of the United Arab Emirates , around mid-November. Western governments backing the peace initiative are seeking a new formula to break the impasse while acknowledging that territorial and security questions remain unresolved.
与此同时,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与泽连斯基的关系已降至新低。由于特朗普达成了一项由俄罗斯向美国供应柴油的协议,并最近拒绝实施新的对俄制裁,莫斯科的地位得到了加强。
U.S. President Donald Trump’s ties with Zelenskyy, meanwhile, have sunk to a new low . Moscow has been bolstered by Trump’s deal for Russia to supply the U.S. with diesel and his recent rejection of new Russia sanctions .
基辅因拒绝美国总统要求停止袭击俄罗斯石油基础设施的呼吁,导致其无人机的卫星支持受到干扰,处境受损。乌克兰领导人担心,这些举动将使普京更加大胆,让他在谈判桌上几乎没有妥协的动力。
Kyiv has been undermined by disruptions in satellite support for its drones after rejecting a call by the U.S. president to halt strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukrainian leaders fear the moves will embolden Putin, giving him little incentive to compromise at the negotiating table.
随着特朗普加大对泽连斯基的施压,指责他是和平的障碍,威特科夫促成了获释一名因在乌克兰作为雇佣兵作战被指控而入狱四年多的美国人。这位特使在圣彼得堡与俄罗斯领导人会面时,称对方为“人道主义者” —— 这一言论在乌克兰引起了震惊。
As Trump increased pressure on Zelenskyy, accusing him of being an obstacle to peace, Witkoff secured the release of an American who had been jailed for more than four years on charges of fighting as a mercenary in Ukraine. The envoy described the Russian leader as a “humanitarian” at their meeting in St. Petersburg — a remark met with consternation in Ukraine.
尽管双方都支持要求举行新谈判,但俄罗斯和乌克兰在解决条件上仍相距甚远,而他们的军队依然在战场上僵持,并每天互相实施远程打击。
While both sides back calls for new talks, Russia and Ukraine are still far apart on their terms for a settlement, while their armies remain locked on the battlefield and they pummel each other with daily long-range strikes.
俄罗斯要求的核心是完全控制其在2022年全面入侵开始几个月后非法吞并的四个乌克兰地区:顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热和赫尔松,此外还有2014年被莫斯科夺取的克里米亚。
Central to Russia’s demands is full control of four Ukrainian regions it illegally annexed months after the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, in addition to Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014.
俄罗斯目前占据乌克兰约20%的领土,但未能攻占其声称拥有主权的这些地区的全部领土。
Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine but has failed to capture all the territory in the regions over which it claims sovereignty.
莫斯科在一长串诉求中,还要求乌克兰从所有四个被吞并的地区撤军、放弃加入北约的竞标、缩减军队规模,并取消针对俄语以及莫斯科派系东正教分支的限制。
In a long list of demands, Moscow also wants Ukraine to withdraw forces from all four annexed regions, renounce its bid to join NATO, reduce the size of its military and drop restrictions against the Russian language and a Moscow-affiliated branch of the Orthodox Church.
普京周四晚些时候在国家电视台发表讲话时表示,莫斯科依然“准备好进行谈判,并为这一艰难、复杂的局面寻找解决方案”,但他随后补充道:“但如果有人更喜欢另一条路,那就这样吧。无论如何,特别军事行动的所有目标都将实现。”泽连斯基几个月来一直公开主张和平谈判,他认为放弃土地将使乌克兰在面对未来的攻击时更加脆弱。基辅将安全保证视为防止俄罗斯未来重新挑起战争的关键。
Speaking on state television late Thursday, Putin said Moscow remains “ready to negotiate and seek solutions to this difficult, complex situation,” before adding: “But if some prefer a different path, so be it. In any case, all the objectives of the special military operation will be achieved.”Zelenskyy — who for months has publicly advocated for peace talks — argues that giving up land would leave Ukraine more vulnerable to future attacks. Kyiv views security guarantees as essential to prevent Russia from restarting the war in the future.
乌克兰总统已重申支持一项冻结前线阵地的停火协议,随后再就结束战争的条件进行谈判。莫斯科则拒绝在达成符合其条件的全面协议之前实现敌对状态的暂停。
The Ukrainian president has reaffirmed support for a ceasefire that would freeze front-line positions, followed by talks on conditions for ending the war. Moscow has rejected a break in hostilities until a comprehensive agreement on its terms is reached.
尽管基辅和莫斯科为组织战俘交换和阵亡士兵遗体移交保持了有限的接触,但先前的谈判在维持和平协议所需的各项安全安排上没有取得任何进展。
While Kyiv and Moscow have maintained limited contact to organize prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers, previous talks have made no progress on the security arrangements needed to sustain a peace deal.
乌克兰认为,由西方盟友支持的安全保证是任何未来和平协议的关键,理想形式是加入北约——这是弗拉基米尔·普京所拒绝的一个选项。乌克兰预计将严重依赖自身军队作为主要的安全保证,并得到盟友的资金支持。
Ukraine believes security guarantees backed by Western allies are essential to any future settlement, ideally in the form of NATO membership — an option Vladimir Putin has rejected. Ukraine expects to heavily rely on its own army as the main security guarantee with financial backing from its allies.
正在讨论的安全保证的其他要素涵盖多个方面,从美国政府目前已排除的加入北约选项,到泽连斯基所描述的“类第五条形式”的美国直接保证,以及由欧洲主导、被称为“志同道合者联盟”的30国联盟的支持。
Other elements of security guarantees being discussed range from NATO membership, which the U.S. administration has currently ruled out , direct guarantees from the United States in what Zelenskyy has described as an “Article 5-like format” and backing by the European-led 30-country alliance known as the Coalition of the Willing.
北约宪章第五条包含了该联盟的共同防御保证,该条款规定对其中一成员国的进攻就是对所有成员国的进攻。
Article 5 of the NATO charter contains the alliance’s mutual-defense guarantee, which establishes that an attack on one is an attack on all.
泽连斯基周四在记者会上对记者表示:“所有这些保证都建立在拥有一个强大乌克兰军队的基础之上——无论是在数量还是质量上——并且要有明确的资金支持,而且数额不小。我们在欧洲和美洲的同僚都深知这一点。”
“All of these guarantees are possible on the basis of a strong Ukrainian army — in terms of both numbers and quality — with clear funding, and not a small amount. Our colleagues in Europe and America know this,” Zelenskyy told reporters Thursday at a briefing.
在本周基辅和其他城市遭到大规模袭击之后,他主张,唯有加大西方对莫斯科的施压,才能改变莫斯科对未来和平谈判的盘算。
Following the massive attacks on Kyiv and other cities this week, he argued that only increased Western pressure on Moscow would change its calculations about future peace talks.
泽连斯基在网上发文写道:“继续努力寻找结束这场战争的正确方案至关重要。但当俄罗斯以弹道导弹回应谈判时,就需要对俄罗斯施加真正的压力,以促成不同的举措——即迈向停止杀戮的举措。”
“It is important to keep trying to find the right solutions to end this war,” Zelenskyy wrote in an online post. “But when Russia responds to negotiations with ballistic missiles, real pressure on Russia is needed to bring about different steps — steps toward ending the killing.”