尼古拉斯·里卡尔迪 罗利（北卡罗来纳州）—— 2022年，民主党人威利·尼克尔以温和派姿态参选，以约9000票的微弱优势险胜北卡罗来纳州第13国会选区。两年后，现任共和党众议员布拉德·诺特以保守派身份参选，以超过7万票的巨大优势轻松当选美国众议员。选民并未改变主意。是政客改变了他们的选民。
NICHOLAS RICCARDI RALEIGH, N.C. — In 2022, Democrat Wiley Nickel ran as a moderate and narrowly won North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District by about 9,000 votes. Two years later, the current congressman, Republican Brad Knott, ran as a conservative and coasted into the U.S. House by more than 70,000 votes. Voters didn’t change their minds. Politicians changed their voters.
共和党控制的州议会重绘了该州的国会选区地图，将南部为数不多的摇摆选区之一变成了一个稳固的共和党席位。立法者将原本呈矩形的第13选区重划为沙漏形状，切除了罗利市内的民主党选民，并纳入了一片延伸至弗吉尼亚州边境的农村县份。
The Republican-controlled legislature redrew the state’s congressional map to transform what was one of the last remaining swing districts in the South to a safe GOP seat. Lawmakers split the rectangular 13th District into an hourglass shape that carved out Democratic voters in Raleigh and replaced them with a swath of rural counties reaching up to the Virginia border.
摇摆席位——意指上届大选中某总统候选人以5个百分点或更少优势获胜的选区——正从全国版图上消失。二战后几十年间，随着美国日益两极分化、选民跨党派分票投票的可能性降低、人们更倾向于搬到志同道合的邻居身边，众议院竞争性席位的数量缓慢萎缩，在城市地区形成了民主党大本营，在全美农村地区形成了共和党大本营。
Swing seats, meaning a district that a presidential candidate won by 5 percentage points or fewer in the previous election, are disappearing from the national map. For decades after World War II, the number of competitive seats in the House slowly eroded as the United States grew more polarized , voters were less likely to split their ticket between parties and people moved closer to like-minded neighbors, creating Democratic strongholds in urban areas and Republicans ones across rural America.
在共和党总统唐纳德·特朗普引发党派重划选区之争后，这一下降趋势在过去一年加速。摇摆选区数量从45个减少至37个。根据20世纪70年代的一次统计（当时首次注意到此类选区数量在缩减），1964年符合现代摇摆席位定义的众议院席位有96个。
That decline accelerated over the past year after Republican President Donald Trump sparked a partisan redistricting battle. The number of swing districts fell from 45 to 37. There were 96 House seats that fit the modern definition of a swing seat in 1964, according to one count from the 1970s, when the shrinking number of such districts was first noted.
这意味着绝大多数众议院席位实际上是在初选中决出胜负，仅凭通常处于本党意识形态极端一端的少数选民支持便可获胜。尼克尔在其唯一一个华盛顿任期内亲眼目睹了这一影响。
That means the overwhelming majority of House seats are effectively won in primaries , with the support of only a fraction of voters who usually are at the extreme ideological end of their party. Nickel saw the impact firsthand during his lone term in Washington.
“我在国会发现的最大分歧不是民主党与共和党之争，而是安全席位与竞争席位之别，”尼克尔说。“当你的重点是开展一场需要与每一位选民交谈的竞选时，你会以不同的视角看待问题，关注点也转向解决问题。”
“The biggest divide I found in Congress wasn’t Democrat versus Republican, it was safe seats versus competitive seats,” Nickel said. “When your focus is on running a campaign where you talk to every single voter, you look at things differently and your focus is on solving problems.”
推动党内初选替代方案的组织美国团结（Unite America）计算，2024年当选众议院的议员中，有87%是由全国仅7%的选民选出的。
Unite America, an organization pushing alternatives to party primaries, calculated that 87% of the representatives elected to the House in 2024 were chosen by 7% of the country’s voters.
“选民除了在少数摇摆选区拥有狭窄的窗口外，几乎没有办法让国会承担责任，”该组织执行主任尼克·特罗亚诺在接受采访时说，并补充称他预计11月局势会更糟。“我们有史以来竞争最少的选举，将导致我们有史以来最缺乏问责和代表性的国会。”
“Voters don’t have any way of holding Congress responsible, except for a narrow window of swing districts,” Nick Troiano, the group’s executive director, said in an interview, adding that he expects things to get worse in November. “The least competitive election of our lifetimes will lead to the least accountable and least representative Congress of our lifetimes.”
共和党人希望竞争席位数量较少，使民主党在11月3日的胜算受到上限限制。
Republicans are hoping the smaller number of competitive seats puts a low ceiling on what Democrats can win on Nov. 3.
“双方都在为一条狭窄的众议院战场而争斗，”全国共和党国会竞选委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉说。“这是一场暗巷中的刀战。”今年这条巷子可能在扩大，但它仍然是一条巷子。
“Both sides are fighting over a narrow House battlefield,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Campaign. “It’s a knife fight in a dark alley.”The alley may be widening this year , but it still is an alley.
鉴于伊朗战争不受欢迎以及选民对高物价的愤怒，民主党扩大了政治目标。两党都在通常不会竞争的共和地区投入竞选经费。
Democrats have expanded their political targets, given the unpopular war with Iran and voters angry about high prices. Both parties are spending on campaigns in Republican area that normally would not be competitive.
然而，即便在日益艰难的政治环境中，共和党仍因可竞争席位数量有限而受到保护。
Even in what is shaping up as a difficult political environment, however, Republicans are protected by the limited number of seats in play.
“即便出现类似2006年的那种大幅摇摆，也不会有40个席位易手。最多也只有20个席位易手，”耶鲁大学政治学家伊恩·夏皮罗说。
“Even if there’s the kind of swing we got in 2006, there’s not going to be 40 seats changing hands. There’s going to be 20 seats changing hands,” said Ian Shapiro, a Yale political scientist.
学术界长期以来一直在争论，竞争性席位的减少究竟有多少该归咎于党派动机驱动的重新划分选区——即“杰利蝾螈”划区，又有多少该归咎于美国人越来越倾向于生活在志同道合、投票方式相同的人群中。多项研究发现，如果没有党派“杰利蝾螈”划区，众议院的竞争性席位数量将比现在增加约一倍。
There is a long-standing debate among academics as to how much of the decline can be blamed on partisan-motivated redistricting , known as gerrymandering, and how much on Americans’ increasing proclivity to live among like-minded people who vote the same way. Multiple studies have found that without partisan gerrymandering, the House would have about double the number of competitive seats it has now.
大多数人认同的一点是，竞争性席位的减少导致了更严重的两极分化，因为立法者只对初选选民负责。
One thing most agree on is that the diminishment of competitive seats leads to greater polarization because legislators are only beholden to primary voters.
夏皮罗说：“这会产生更多的疏离感，因为国会除了调查和摆姿态什么也不做。”
“It produces more alienation because Congress doesn’t do anything besides investigations and positioning,” Shapiro said.
尼克尔在研究了追溯到2016年的选举结果后，发现没有一位民主党籍现任议员在特朗普获得55%或以上选票的选区中成功连任，因此决定不寻求连任。在新选区中，特朗普获得了58%的选票。
Nickel decided not to run for reelection after studying election returns going back to 2016 and finding that no Democratic incumbent had held on in a seat where Trump took 55% or more of the vote. Trump received 58% of the vote in the new district.
尼克尔曾提出一项法案，要求所有州都采用非党派重新划分选区制度。他最初表示将竞选联邦参议员，因为全州范围的席位无法进行“杰利蝾螈”划区。但当前州长罗伊·库珀宣布将竞选民主党提名时，尼克尔转而竞选韦克县地方检察官，这个深度倾向民主党的县在很大程度上被划出了第13选区之外。尼克尔赢得了民主党初选，将于1月就职。没有共和党人参选。这凸显了北卡罗来纳州乃至全国如何实际上已按政党实现了隔离。
Nickel, who had introduced a bill to require all states to use a nonpartisan redistricting system , said at first he would run for U.S. Senate because statewide seats cannot be gerrymandered. But when former Gov. Roy Cooper announced he was running for the Democratic nomination, Nickel switched to run for district attorney of Wake County, the deeply Democratic county that was largely cut out of the 13th District. Nickel won the Democratic primary and will take office in January. No Republican ran. That highlights how North Carolina, and the country, have effectively become segregated by political party.
乔治城大学政治学家约书亚·胡德说：“如果你只是在一个州周围画出大块区域，你会得到非竞争性选区，因为我们已经如此两极分化。”
“If you just draw big blocks around a state, you’re going to get noncompetitive districts because we are so polarized,” said Joshua Huder, a political scientist at Georgetown University.
据北卡罗来纳州卡塔巴学院政治学家迈克尔·比策称，北卡罗来纳州只有15%的投票选区可被归类为政治竞争性选区。
Only 15% of North Carolina’s voting precincts could be classified as politically competitive, according to Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Catawba College in North Carolina.
“对于普通北卡罗来纳州人来说，取决于他们住在哪里，如果他们朝任何方向开车一小时，就会置身于一个与他们居住地截然不同的北卡罗来纳州，”他说。
“For the average North Carolinian, depending on where they live, if they drive an hour in any direction they will be in a very different North Carolina than they live in,” he said.
从旧第13选区到新第13选区的跨越，确实印证了这一点。从属于原本竞争激烈的第13选区、拥有办公大楼、咖啡馆和美食餐厅的罗利市中心出发，向北驱车约90分钟，穿过住宅区、大豆田和烟草地——这些构成了新保守派选区的核心地带。
That certainly is the case traversing from the old 13th District to the new one. From the office towers, cafes and gourmet restaurants of central Raleigh that were part of the competitive 13th District, it is about a 90-minute drive north through the subdivisions and soybean and tobacco farms that are the heart of the new, conservative one.
在这里，鲜有人谈论国会竞选。虽然许多人对国家的发展方向表示不满，但他们看不出有理由投票给共和党以外的任何人。
Here, few are talking about the congressional race. While plenty express dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, they see no reason to vote for anyone other than a Republican.
“这就是我一直以来的立场，”住在罗克斯伯勒镇、在当地沃尔玛工作的共和党人琳达·朗（Linda Long，62岁）说。
“It’s just what I’ve always been,” said Linda Long, 62, a Republican in the town of Roxboro who works at the local Walmart.
住在弗兰克林顿的退休建筑工程师乔治·斯科特（George Scott）发自内心地厌恶特朗普，但他也是一辈子的共和党人，预计会继续投共和党的票。“这只是一个人而已，”75岁的斯科特谈到总统时说。
George Scott, a retired architectural engineer in Franklinton, viscerally dislikes Trump but also is a lifelong Republican and expects to keep voting that way. “It’s just one person,” Scott 75, said of the president.
这就是保罗·巴林杰（Paul Barringer）面临的局面。
This is what Paul Barringer is up against.
这位将挑战诺特（Knott）的民主党提名人，希望在这样一年制造冷门——即便是第13选区这种安全席位的共和党议员也在如履薄冰。诺特的办公室和竞选团队均未回应采访请求。
The Democratic nominee against Knott hopes for an upset in a year when even Republican members in safe seats like the 13th District are running scared. Neither Knott’s office nor his campaign responded to a request for an interview.
近日一个晚上，巴林杰驾驶他的2011款丰田陆地巡洋舰，后座坐着两条狗，前往玛丽·布兰克（Mary Blank）的家中。布兰克领导着自由派组织“Indivisible”在约翰斯顿县的分会，该县是一个快速增长、倾向保守的地区，紧邻罗利市。
On a recent evening, Barringer drove his 2011 Toyota Land Cruiser, with his two dogs in back, to the home of Mary Blank, who heads the chapter of the liberal group Indivisible in Johnston County, a fast-growing, conservative-leaning area just outside Raleigh.
巴林杰曾是一名医疗保健律师，他从马里兰州回到家乡选区的树场，照顾患病的母亲。他说自己以前是共和党人，但为了参选而转党，希望能吸引各类选民。
Barringer, a former healthcare lawyer who returned from Maryland to the tree farm in the district where he grew up to care for his ailing mother, said he was previously a Republican but switched parties to run, hoping he could attract voters of all stripes.
“我认为人们对正在发生的事情感到不满，”巴林杰说。“他们想要能找到合作方式的人。”在房子的后门廊上，他受到了一群自称是这个保守地区里政治少数派的自由派人士的热烈欢迎。一度，巴林杰回忆起烤烟这项艰苦的任务，并请所有经历过这一北卡罗来纳州农村成人礼的人举手。无人举手。“我们全是外来户！”一名女子喊道。
“I think people are disgruntled about things that are happening,” Barringer said. “They want people who will find ways to work together.”On the house’s back porch, he was greeted rapturously by a self-admitted political minority of liberals in the conservative area. At one point, Barringer reminisced about the grueling task of curing tobacco and asked everyone who had undergone that rural North Carolina rite of passage to raise a hand. No one did. “We’re all transplants!” one woman called out.
现场气氛热烈，尤其是在巴林杰提到全国民主党已将该席位列入重点关注名单、视为可能爆冷的席位后。来自新泽西州的退休社会科教师布兰克，现年73岁，表示这给了她希望，但她对当地局势持现实态度。“我一直在说，我不认为保罗能赢，”布兰克说。
There was palpable excitement, especially after Barringer noted that national Democrats had put the seat on a list of ones to watch for a possible upset. Blank, a retired 73-year-old social studies teacher from New Jersey, said that gave her hope, but she was realistic about the local dynamic. “I’ve been saying all along I don’t think Paul can win,” Blank said.
林伍德·帕克也持相同看法。“他们在吹牛，”现年78岁、福奥克斯镇市长帕克谈到民主党希望赢下该选区的想法时说道。福奥克斯镇位于布兰克住所以南26英里处。
Linwood Parker agrees. “They’re blowing smoke,” Parker, the 78-year-old mayor of Four Oaks, a town 26 miles south of Blank’s house, said of Democrats’ hopes they could win the district.
帕克是终身共和党人，深知选区划分操纵在北卡罗来纳州是延续数十年的传统。民主党过去曾无情地利用它来维持对州议会和国会代表团的控制，直到2010年大选失势。如今轮到共和党操纵版图以利本党。
Parker is a lifelong Republican who knows well that gerrymandering is a decades-old tradition in North Carolina. Democrats used to do it ruthlessly to maintain their control of the legislature and the congressional delegation until they lost power in the 2010 wave. Now Republicans are the ones who bend the maps to benefit their party.
帕克表示赞同，尽管他说自己并不喜欢选区划分操纵，也不喜欢侵蚀社会两党互信的两极分化。
Parker approves even though he said he is no fan of gerrymandering, or the polarization that has eaten away at bipartisan trust in society.
“重新划分选区只是共和党掌权时不得不触动的杠杆之一，”帕克说。“否则就好比说，我们打这场棒球比赛，我们只有三次出局机会，却给你们两次。”
“Redistricting is just one of the levers that when Republicans, when they are in control, have to touch,” Parker said. “Otherwise it’s like saying, when we play this baseball game, we’re going to have three outs, we’ll give you two.”