北卡罗来纳州共和党国会候选人、州众议员珍妮弗·巴尔科姆和劳里·巴克豪特（右）在2026年10月20日于北卡罗来纳州格林维尔举行的竞选集会上受到特朗普总统拥抱。巴克豪特正在北卡罗来纳州第1选区参选，该选区经过重新划分后本应大幅倾向共和党，如今却被视为势均力敌。
North Carolina Republican congressional candidates state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom and Laurie Buckhout (right) are embraced by President Trump during an election rally on Oct. 20, 2026, in Greenville, N.C. Buckhout is running in North Carolina's 1st District, which was redrawn to heavily favor Republicans and is now a toss-up.
安娜·莫尼梅克/盖蒂图片社 在NPR应用程序获取中期选举等最新资讯 从去年开始，特朗普总统及其政治团队向共和党主导的州施压，要求重新划分国会选区界线以有利于共和党。此举本意是为共和党筑起一道防火墙，以期避免总统所在政党在中期选举中惨败的历史规律。
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App Starting last year, President Trump and his political team put pressure on Republican-led states to redraw congressional district lines to favor Republicans. It was supposed to build a firewall for Republicans hoping to avoid the historical pattern of heavy midterm losses for the president's party.
“事情并没有那样发展，”《Inside Elections》主编内森·冈萨雷斯说。
"It just has not turned out that way," said Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections.
相反，共和党正在本应轻松拿下的众议院席位上花费数百万美元，最终却可能依然失去这些席位。
Instead, Republicans are spending millions of dollars on House seats that were supposed to deliver easy wins and may end up losing them anyway.
这些选区中包括北卡罗来纳州第1国会选区，该州立法机构去年底激进地重新划分了该选区界线，试图使其成为一个可靠的共和党选区。按新界线计算，特朗普在2024年本应在该选区以超过11个百分点的优势获胜。如今它被普遍视为势均力敌。
Among those districts is North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, which the state legislature aggressively redrew late last year to try to make it a reliably Republican district. Under the new lines, Trump would have won the district by more than 11 percentage points in 2024. Now it is widely considered a toss up.
特朗普最近在北卡罗来纳州东部主持了一场集会，前共和党州主席、现联邦参议员候选人迈克尔·沃特利获得了大部分关注。
Trump recently headlined a rally in eastern North Carolina where former Republican Party chairman turned U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley got most of the attention.
天气寒冷且时间已晚，特朗普终于提到了坐在贵宾席上的两位国会候选人。
It was cold and getting late when Trump finally got around to mentioning two congressional candidates sitting in the VIP section. "Come up.
“上来。你们两个，我们得把他们选进去，”谈到北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区共和党提名人劳里·巴克豪特（Laurie Buckout）以及在该州另一端竞选代表第十一国会选区的共和党人珍妮弗·巴尔科姆（Jennifer Balkcom）时，特朗普说道，“我们必须投票给她们。这是两个特别的人。上来吧。”
The two of you, we have to get them in," Trump said of Laurie Buckout, the Republican nominee in NC-01 and Jennifer Balkcom, the Republican running to represent NC-11 on the opposite side of the state. "We have to vote for them. These are two special people.
在舞台上，已退休的陆军上校巴克豪特两年前曾在该选区参选并落败，她倾向于利用共和党在该选区应有的党派优势，称这是“简单的数学问题”。
Come on up." On stage, Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, who ran and lost in the district two years ago, leaned into the partisan advantage Republicans should have in the district, saying it's "simple math."
“我们人数更多，”巴克豪特说。“你们要做的就是出来投票。上帝保佑你们。总统先生。”
"There are more of us," said Buckhout. "All you've got to do is get out the vote. God bless you. Mr. President."
但对投票率的担忧正是特朗普来到该州的原因，他恳求选民投票，就像他本人参选一样。特朗普对集会人群表示，众议院议长迈克·Johnson曾请他为巴克豪特和巴尔科姆给予额外助威，并将选情形容为“艰难”。特朗普说：“他说‘如果你能的话，今晚给她们特别喊话，因为她们将面临势均力敌的竞选’。”
But concern about turnout is exactly why Trump was in the state, begging voters to cast their ballots as if he were on it. Trump told the rally crowd that House Speaker Mike Johnson had asked him to give an extra boost to Buckhout and Balkcom, describing the situation as "tough." "He said 'if you could, give them a special call out tonight, because they're going to have close races'," Trump said.
巴克豪特及其团队未回应参与本报道的请求。但是，如果这次选区重划旨在轻松取得共和党胜利，那么这个目的并未达到。根据美国全国公共广播电台（NPR）对AdImpact数据的分析，这里如今已成为全国花费最高昂的众议院竞选之一，9月1日至选举日期间，广告支出超过4200万美元。
Buckhout and her team didn't respond to requests to participate in this story. But, if this redraw was meant to notch an easy Republican win, it hasn't worked out. This is now one of the most expensive House races in the country, with more than $42 million spent on advertising between Sept. 1 and Election Day, according to an NPR analysis of AdImpact data.
新选区边界，相同的问题 一名志愿者在北卡罗来纳州斯旺斯伯勒（Swansboro）的一个提前投票点外，为民主党众议员唐·戴维斯（Don Davis）与昂斯洛县（Onslow）县委员会专员候选人丽贝卡·库珀（Rebecca Cooper）和米歇尔·利安德尔（Michel Leandre Jr.）拍了一张照片。昂斯洛是北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区在最近一次国会选区边界重新划分中被并入的六个县之一。
New district lines, same issues A volunteer snaps a photo of Democratic Rep. Don Davis with Onslow County Board of Commissioner candidates Rebecca Cooper and Michel Leandre Jr. outside an early voting location in Swansboro, N.C. Onslow is one of six counties added to North Carolina's 1st District in the latest redraw of congressional district lines.
最近的一个早晨，民主党众议员唐·戴维斯正在该选区最东南端的斯旺斯伯勒的一个提前投票点向选民打招呼，这片区域他以前并未代表过。
One recent morning, Democratic Rep. Don Davis, was greeting voters at an early voting location in Swansboro, at the far southeastern tip of the district, an area he hasn't represented before.
当戴维斯向一名走出投票站的选民自我介绍时，该男子告诉他，自己并不在他的选区内。
As Davis introduced himself to a voter walking out of the polling place, the man told him he wasn't in his district.
“哦，抱歉，”戴维斯笑着说，并指出这种情况最近经常发生在他身上。“这是我第三次在第三张新地图上参选，”戴维斯说。
"Oh, I'm sorry," Davis said, laughing and noting this has been happening to him a lot lately. "This is my third run on a third new map," said Davis.
在多轮重划选区中，戴维斯一直是共和党的重点打击目标。这一次，他的家乡县份被划出了选区，而他获得了六个新县的全部或部分。不过他表示，北卡罗来纳州东部的问题具有普遍性。
Davis has been a top target for Republicans in multiple rounds of redistricting. This time his home county was drawn out of the district and he got all or part of six new counties. He says issues in eastern North Carolina, though, are universal.
“你听到太多关于负担能力、通胀和成本的议论，但我认为对许多人来说，这正变成一个关于生存能力的问题，”戴维斯提到受高油价冲击的农民、卡车司机和渔民时说，“就是他们如何能够挺过去、在艰难时期生存下来。”戴维斯是一位乐观的斗士，甚至在投票站前发传单的志愿者面前拿自己的困境开起了玩笑。
"You hear so much about affordability, inflation and costs but I believe this is becoming for many about survivability," said Davis, referencing farmers, truckers and fisherman hit by high fuel prices. "Just how they're able to make it and survive during these tough times." Davis is a happy warrior, even joking about his predicament with a volunteer handing out flyers in front of the polling place.
“我真不知道现在还能用多少种其他方式重划，除非也许你们开始吞并弗吉尼亚州什么的，或者把选区延伸进大西洋什么的，”他说着，笑着补充道，“我就游过去跟鱼聊天呗。”共和党和民主党人都承认，戴维斯是一位强劲的竞选者，仅凭选区划分的方式，这场竞选本不应如此有竞争力。
"I just don't know how many other ways you could redraw it now, other than maybe, you know if you just start annexing Virginia or something or maybe taking it into the Atlantic Ocean or something," he said adding with a laugh, "I'll just swim and talk to the fish you know." Republicans and Democrats alike acknowledge Davis is a formidable campaigner, making this race more competitive than it should be just based on the way the lines were drawn.
“我觉得他们以为用重划选区的笔就击败了唐·戴维斯，”北卡罗来纳州知名政治顾问摩根·杰克逊说，他正在负责民主党人罗伊·库珀的联邦参议员竞选。“结果证明，唐·戴维斯向来是个难缠的对手。他是一位本地政治家，竞选实力非常强。”《国会选情内参》的冈萨雷斯表示，全国多个重划选区中的现任民主党议员决定留下来战斗，现在看起来处于有利获胜位置。
"I think they believed that they had beaten Don Davis with the redistricting pen," said Morgan Jackson, a prominent North Carolina political consultant, who is running Democrat Roy Cooper's U.S. Senate campaign. "As it turns out, Don Davis has always been a tough out. He's a local politician who runs really strong." Incumbent Democrats in several redrawn districts around the country decided to stay in and fight and now look well positioned to win, said Inside Election's Gonzales.
冈萨雷斯说：“共和党人在全国15个国会选区取得了优势，但我们在临近选举日时看到的是，其中一些本应轻易取胜的选区并没有如预期那样发展，该党不得不投入数百万美元来赢得本应轻松取胜的选区。”
"Republicans gained an advantage in 15 congressional districts nationwide but what we are seeing this close to Election Day is that some of those that were supposed to be easy victories are not turning out that way and the party is having to pour in millions of dollars to win districts that were supposed to be easy victories," said Gonzales.
一名参与中期选举但未获授权公开表态的共和党战略人士反驳了选区重划行动已经彻底失败的观点，称“选区重划创造了新的战场，它并不决定结果”。这比共和党人在几个月前对这些选区所表现出的信心要低得多。
A Republican strategist involved with midterm races, but who wasn't authorized to speak publicly, pushed back on the idea that the redistricting push has been a bust, saying "redistricting creates new battlefields, it doesn't create outcomes." That's a lot less confidence than Republicans were projecting about these districts just a few months ago.
佛罗里达州为驱逐民主党现任议员而重新划分的两个国会选区，广告支出总额正逼近9000万美元。在得克萨斯州，原本被划分出具有10个百分点特朗普优势的选区已向民主党倾斜，而另一个原本稳操胜券的共和党选区在重划地图时被并入了一些民主党选民后，目前也显得岌岌可危。
Two Florida congressional districts redrawn to boot democratic incumbents are nearing a combined $90 million in ad spending. In Texas, districts drawn to have a 10-point Trump advantage have shifted towards Democrats and a previously safe Republican district that had some Democratic voters added to it in the redrawn maps now appears to be at risk as well.
杰克逊说：“我认为归根结底，这最终将被证明是一次弄巧成拙的选区重划，而不是一次有利于己的选区重划。”
"I think at the end of the day, this will go down as a dummymander rather than a gerrymander," said Jackson.