纽约州锡拉丘兹——在一系列深红州举行集会之后，总统唐纳德·特朗普将于周五前往纽约州北部这座倾向民主党的城市。共和党人指望他能动员自己的选民，同时也希望他不会同样帮助民主党人。
SYRACUSE, N.Y. — After a string of rallies in deep-red states, President Donald Trump heads to this Democratic-leaning city in upstate New York on Friday, where Republicans are counting on him to turn out their voters — and hoping he does not do the same for Democrats.
当晚在市中心Oncenter举行的集会上，共和党州长候选人布鲁斯·布雷克曼和共和党纽约州第22国会选区候选人凯莉·布勒将一同出席。
The evening rally at the Oncenter downtown will feature Bruce Blakeman, the Republican candidate for governor, and Kailee Buller, the GOP candidate for New York’s 22nd Congressional District.
本周早些时候，当被问及总统的到访将如何帮助他的竞选活动时，布雷克曼坦率地分析了其中的利害关系。“好吧，听我说，我们需要那些特朗普的支持者出来投票，”他说。“两年前他们以非常庞大的数量参与了投票。而且特朗普总统在纽约州的竞选表现也非常、非常好。所以我们必须动员这些选民。” 俄亥俄州的一些特朗普支持者仍在等待他承诺的制造业繁荣 | 总统承诺核查 2026年10月8日 布雷克曼还有追赶的余地。
Asked on Fox News earlier this week how the president’s visit could help his campaign, Blakeman was frank about the calculus. “Well, listen, we need those Trump voters to get out,” he said. “They came out in really big numbers two years ago. And President Trump had a very, very good race here in New York State. So we’ve got to get those voters out.”Some Trump voters in Ohio are still waiting for his promised manufacturing boom | POTUS Promise Check October 8, 2026 Blakeman has catching up to do.
本周发布的马里斯特民意调查显示，寻求连任的纽约州长凯西·霍库尔以11个百分点领先于他——尽管她在独立选民中的支持率正在下降。
A Marist poll released this week shows New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is seeking re-election, leading him by 11 points — though she is losing ground among independents.
根据预测机构的分析，包括锡拉丘兹和奥农达加县在内的第22选区倾向民主党。民主党在2024年成功夺下了该选区。共和党人正在努力捍卫其在众议院的微弱多数席位，并试图在11月重新赢得该席位。
The 22nd District, which includes Syracuse and Onondaga County, leans Democratic, according to forecasters. Democrats flipped the district in 2024. Republicans are defending a slim House majority and are working to win the seat back in November.
雪城市共和党委员会主席凯文·瑞安（Kevin Ryan）在接受MS NOW采访时表示，他认为布尔勒（Buller）“绝对”有可能获胜。但雪城大学政治学教授格兰特·里厄尔（Grant Reeher）表示，虽然共和党人可能再次赢得该选区，但“他们必须非常温和”。
Kevin Ryan, chair of the Syracuse City Republican Committee, told MS NOW that he thinks there is “absolutely” a chance Buller can win. But Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said that while a Republican could win the district again, “they would have to be very moderate.”
里厄尔说：“他们必须能够有效地论证，现任民主党议员——或者如果这是一个空缺席位，就是民主党挑战者——的立场过于偏左。这里并不是一个特别自由的选区。几十年来，这里的政治传统一直偏向温和。”与全国其他地区在激烈竞争中参选的共和党人一样，布尔勒也开始与特朗普保持一定距离。在最近与现任民主党议员约翰·曼尼恩（John Mannion）的辩论中，布尔勒表明她反对与伊朗进行旷日持久的战争。
“They would have to be able to effectively make the case that the Democrat incumbent, or if it were an open seat, the Democratic challenger was just too far to the left,” Reeher said. “It’s not a terribly liberal district. The political tradition here that goes back decades is one of more moderation.”Like Republicans in other tight races across the country, Buller has started to put some distance between herself and Trump.
她承认美国民众难以承受高昂的油价，并表示自己并非“总统的橡皮图章”。她说她支持移民执法，但补充称移民和海关执法局的官员曾犯下“悲剧性”的错误。
At a recent debate with Rep. John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent, Buller signaled that she opposes a drawn-out war with Iran. She acknowledged that Americans are struggling to afford high gas prices and said she is not a “rubber stamp for the president.”
特朗普还将在雪城的此次停留中，为州内其他选区的共和党候选人助选，其中一些人的支持率落后于他们的民主党对手。
She said she supports immigration enforcement but added that Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers have made “tragic” mistakes.
在邻近的第21选区，共和党候选人安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺（Anthony Constantino）领先于民主党候选人布莱克·根德比恩（Blake Gendebien）。上个月，《库克政治报告》将该选区的评估从“稳固的共和党席位”调整为“可能的共和党席位”——这是自2018年以来，该席位首次被评定为低于“稳固的共和党席位”。再往南，在哈德逊谷地的第17选区，埃默生学院最近的一项民意调查显示，众议员迈克·劳勒（Mike Lawler）的支持率落后于民主党候选人凯特·康利（Cait Conley）两个百分点。
Trump will also use the Syracuse stop to boost Republicans in other races across the state, some of whom trail their Democratic opponents. In the neighboring 21st District, Republican Anthony Constantino leads Democrat Blake Gendebien. Last month, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” — the first time since 2018 it has rated the seat as anything less than solidly Republican. Farther south, in the Hudson Valley’s 17th District, a recent Emerson College poll showed Rep. Mike Lawler trailing Democrat Cait Conley by two points.
里厄称总统此次访问是“一把双刃剑”，但共和党人正“押注于能拿到刀刃更锋利的那一边”。他表示，像这样的选举往往更取决于投票率而非说服效果，因此特朗普正试图在共和党人和他的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）支持群体中激发热情。
Reeher calls the president’s visit a “double-edged sword,” but one where Republicans are “banking on getting the better side of the knife.”Elections like this one tend to turn more on turnout than persuasion, he said, so Trump is trying to generate enthusiasm among Republicans and his MAGA base.
里厄说：“他来这里，希望比民主党更能激发自己的支持者——当然他也会让民主党人兴奋起来——让他们出来投票，但方向正好相反。”
“He’s coming up here to get hopefully more of his people excited than the Democrats, who he will also excite, to come out and vote the other way,” Reeher said.
瑞安表示，集会的地点让从奥尔巴尼到布法罗的州内各地民众都能轻松抵达。他说：“锡拉丘兹是该州的地理中心。所有人都可以在这里汇合，前来见总统并聆听他的讲话。”
Ryan said the rally’s location makes it easy to reach people across the state, from Albany to Buffalo. “Syracuse is the geographic center of the state,” he said. “All can meet in the middle to come out and see the president and hear what he has to say.”
当地的基层倡导组织正在计划就在奥恩中心附近几个街区处举行抗议活动。“不要带着仇恨来这里，”“不可分割的奥农达加县”组织的一名组织者汤姆·凯克说。“不要带着破坏民主和攻击投票权的目的来这里。不要带着攻击跨性别者和移民的目的来这里。”
Local grassroots advocacy groups are planning protests just blocks from the Oncenter. “Don’t come here with the hate,” said Tom Keck, an organizer with Indivisible Onondaga County. “Don’t come here with the undermining of democracy and the attacks on voting rights. Don’t come here with the attacks on trans people and immigrants.”
当地共和党主席瑞安为总统的执政成绩辩护。他说：“对于那些认为总统做了一些不受欢迎的事情的人，我认为你们需要看他的整体政绩。我认为本届政府正在兑现美国民众在2024年投票时所支持的内容。他巩固了我们的边境，让公平贸易重返这个国家，我们的经济也变得更加健康。”
Ryan, the local Republican party chair, defended the president’s record. “For those who say that the president has done some things that are unpopular, I think you need to look at the overall record,” he said. “I think that this administration is delivering exactly what the American people voted for in 2024. He has secured our borders. He has brought fair trade back to this country. Our economy is better off.”“Yeah, there is the war with Iran,” Ryan added.
瑞安补充道：“是的，还有与伊朗的战争。但我们不能忘记，自吉米·卡特以来的每一位总统都承诺要解决伊朗问题及其对世界构成的威胁。而唐纳德·特朗普是第一位真正采取行动的人。”
“But let’s not forget that every president since Jimmy Carter has promised to do something about Iran and the threat that it poses to the world. Donald Trump’s the first one to actually do something about it.”The post Trump heads to upstate New York to boost GOP turnout — but could energize Democrats, too MS NOW