北卡罗来纳州第11国会选区位于该州农村且保守的地区，由共和党人掌握已逾十年，并在2024年以近两位数的优势支持唐纳德·特朗普。而现在，该选区可能正处于11月转为民主党掌控的边缘。
North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District sits in a rural and conservative region of the state, has been held by a Republican for more than a decade and backed Donald Trump by a nearly double-digit margin in 2024. And right now, it might be on the verge of turning blue in November.
据十余位来自两党的地方和全国政治操盘手透露，共和党面临严重失去这一曾经安全席位的危险。他们描述，民主党人杰米·艾格与共和党州众议员珍妮弗·博尔科姆之间的竞争，因一位地方民主党官员所谓的“完美风暴”般的问题——无论是在地方还是全国层面——已向民主党倾斜数月。
Republicans are in serious danger of losing a once safe seat in the 11th District, according to more than a dozen interviews with local and national political operatives from both parties. They described the race between Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom as teetering toward Democratic control for months, thanks to what one local Democratic official called a “perfect storm” of problems for Republicans both locally and nationally.
共和党在该选区于夏季遭受打击，时任众议员查克·爱德华兹因丑闻被迫结束竞选活动。他在9月初因众议院道德调查而受到国会谴责。
Republicans in the district suffered a blow over the summer when incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards was forced to end his campaign under scandal. He was censured by Congress in early September following a House ethics investigation.
情况在秋季进一步恶化，特朗普的全国民调数字下滑，而北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员提名人迈克尔·沃特利在竞选名单顶端难以获得声势。一些共和党人担心，距离选举不足两周，这场竞选可能已经输了。
Conditions for the party deteriorated further this fall, as Trump’s poll numbers slid nationally and the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina, Michael Whatley, struggled to gain traction at the top of the ticket. Some Republicans fear that with less than two weeks to go, the race is already lost.
“北卡罗来纳州糟糕的环境，再加上总统候选人名单顶端的死局以及与现任者的丑闻，使得这一周期保住这个席位希望渺茫，”一位从事众议院选战工作的共和党策略师说，他获准匿名坦率发言。“他们大概在9月就知道这一点，但还是尽可能久地硬撑了下去。”特朗普控制的超级政治行动委员会“绝不后退PAC”周二取消了该选区未来的广告预订，这显示该党对自己在该选区的胜算日益怀疑，一位了解该组织情况的知情人士向《华盛顿太阳报》证实。
“The bad environment in North Carolina, combined with a dead top of the ticket and a scandal with the incumbent made this a long shot to hold onto this cycle,” said one Republican strategist who works on House races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They probably knew that in September but fought it out as long as they could.”In a sign of the party’s growing skepticism about their chances in the district, No Going Back PAC, a Trump-controlled super PAC, on Tuesday canceled future ad reservations in the district, a source familiar with the group confirmed to The Washington Sun. (The spending cut was first reported by Punchbowl News.)
（这一支出削减最早由《杯碗新闻》报道。）其他共和党组织，如全国共和党国会委员会，仍计划在未来两周在该选区支出，但党内操盘手越来越怀疑他们能否挽回一场胜利。巴尔科姆的竞选团队未回应就此次选战置评的请求。
Other Republican groups, like the National Republican Congressional Committee, are still slated to spend in the district over the next two weeks, but party operatives are increasingly skeptical that they can salvage a win. Balkcom’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment about the race.
“我其实认为第11选区的评级应该是‘大概率民主党’，而不是‘倾向民主党’，”一位北卡罗来纳州共和党策略师说，他获准匿名坦率谈论此次选战。“从提前投票的情况看，这是一个大概率民主党的选区。”周二在北卡罗来纳州格林维尔的一场集会上，特朗普暗示巴尔科姆和第1选区共和党候选人劳里·巴克豪特都将面临“势均力敌的选战”，需要总统“特别点名”。
“I actually think the rating in the 11th District should be likely Democrat, not lean Democrat,” said one North Carolina Republican strategist, given anonymity to speak candidly about the race. “Based on early voting, it is a likely Democratic district.”At a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, on Tuesday, Trump suggested that both Balkcom and Laurie Buckhout, the Republican candidate for the 1st District, were going to have “close races,” requiring a “special call out” from the president.
这位共和党策略师说，他们预计众议员理查德·哈德森在该州中部选区的选战在选举日可能会更具竞争性，尽管该席位在此次选举周期的大部分时间里一直被视为共和党的安全席位。哈德森最近开始投放电视广告，而民主党超级政治行动委员会“众议院多数党PAC”已将该选战向捐赠者列为潜在目标。
The Republican strategist said they expected that Rep. Richard Hudson’s race in the central part of the state, considered a safe Republican seat, would likely be more competitive on Election Day, despite it being viewed as a safe seat for the GOP for most of the cycle. Hudson recently began spending on TV advertising, and the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC has identified the race to donors as a potential target.
共和党在第11选区的困境，既表明民主党可能深入原本属于红色的地盘——民主党竞选操盘手对他们在特朗普以两位数优势赢下的一系列席位上的胜算越来越有信心——也是多种地方因素交织的结果，这些因素使该席位对共和党人而言格外艰难。
The GOP’s troubles in the 11th District are both a sign of how deeply Democrats might reach into formerly red terrain — Democratic operatives are increasingly confident about their chances in an array of seats Trump won by double digits — and a confluence of local factors that have made the seat uniquely tough for Republicans.
爱德华兹的突然退出让共和党陷入困境。此前，爱德华兹被指控对其国会工作人员中的女性实施性骚扰，随后退出竞选，共和党不得不迅速选出新的候选人。这给巴尔科姆留下的时间很少——不到三个月——让她向整个选区的选民介绍自己，该选区横跨16个崎岖多山的县。
Edwards’ sudden departure left Republicans in a bind. The party had to quickly choose a new candidate after Edwards dropped out of the race following allegations that he was sexually harassing women on his congressional staff. It gave Balkcom little time — less than three months — to introduce herself to the voters across the district, which spans 16 rugged, mountainous counties.
“我们在外面和人们交谈时，仍然有人说：‘等等，查克怎么了？’”北卡罗来纳州西部一名共和党志愿者说。此人获准匿名以便坦率发言。
“When we’re out here talking to people, there are still people who are like, ‘Well, wait, what happened to Chuck?” said a Republican Party volunteer in western North Carolina who was given anonymity to speak candidly. Margaret Ackiss, a member at large of the 11th District’s Republican Party who nominated Balkcom to run for the seat, described the fallout from Edwards’ scandal and late-stage dropout as resulting in a “sad state of affairs.”
第11选区共和党全体委员玛格丽特·阿基斯曾提名巴尔科姆竞选该席位，她形容爱德华兹丑闻及后期退选造成的后果是“令人悲哀的状况”。阿基斯说，巴尔科姆的胜选之路需要在切罗基、克莱、格雷厄姆、梅肯和斯温等乡村县——该地区最红的地区——打出知名度，同时努力在该选区人口中心附近争取无党派选民。
Balkcom’s path to winning would require balancing getting her name out in rural counties like Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon and Swain — the reddest parts of the region — while attempting to win unaffiliated voters near the district’s population center, Ackiss said.
“北卡罗来纳州远西部的外围地区，他们根本不知道她是谁，”阿基斯说。
“The outer rim of far western North Carolina, they have no idea who she is,” Ackiss said.
华盛顿的民主党竞选操盘手认为阿格是他们本轮选举中最好的招募人选之一。阿格在该选区有深厚的家族根基，并把自己定位为不依附于本党的“山地民主党人”。
Democratic campaign operatives in Washington consider Ager one of their best recruits of the cycle. Ager has deep family roots in the district and styles himself as a “Mountain Democrat” not beholden to his party.
“我认为使这场选举具有竞争力的头号因素是杰米·阿格，”负责管理阿格竞选的格雷森·巴内特说。
“The number one thing I think that’s made this competitive is Jamie Ager,” said Grayson Barnette, who is managing Ager’s campaign.
共和党的困境、民主党在全国范围内的上升势头，以及杰米·阿格尔的个人魅力，都让当地的民主党人感到有信心能够扭转这一选区的局势（即让民主党赢得该选区）。
The GOP’s troubles, the national momentum for Democrats and Ager’s appeal have made local Democrats feel confident about flipping the seat.
“所有这些因素共同作用，为2026年大选营造了一个‘完美风暴’，这正是我们保持乐观的原因，”第11选区的民主党主席贝丝·琼斯说道。
“All of these things have just come together for a perfect storm for 2026, and that’s what makes us optimistic,” said Beth Jones, Democratic chair of the 11th District.
几个月来，全国范围内的民主党人士一直对阿格尔的胜算持乐观态度，认为他在竞争激烈的选举中比党内的许多其他候选人更有胜算。一位民主党策略师认为阿格尔有90%的获胜几率；另一位民主党工作人员则表示，他们早已将这场选举视为必胜之战。
National Democrats have been bullish on Ager’s chances for months, considering him more likely to win than many of the party’s other candidates in competitive races. One Democratic strategist gave Ager a “90%” chance of winning; another operative said they had already mentally put his race in the win column.
不过，仍有一些共和党人对詹妮弗·巴尔科姆抱有希望，认为最近几周选情有所胶着。副总统JD·万斯周一访问了该选区，以支持共和党候选人巴尔科姆。
Some Republicans are holding out hope for Balkcom, saying that they think the race has tightened in recent weeks. Vice President JD Vance visited the district Monday to rally Republicans, in a boost to Balkcom.
“北卡罗来纳州第11选区原本是共和党的传统据点；詹妮弗·巴尔科姆是一位在当地拥有深厚根基的出色候选人，而杰米·阿格尔则属于极端自由派的民主党人，他的激进税收与支出政策使他与那些试图掌控民主党的极端社会主义分子立场一致，”全国共和党委员会（NRCC）的发言人赖利·理查森在一份声明中表示。“选民们明白，阿格尔的执政会让他们的生活成本增加、安全状况恶化，因此他们会选择支持詹妮弗·巴尔科姆。”
“NC-11 is a Republican district, Jennifer Balkcom is a phenomenal candidate with deep local roots, and liberal Jamie Ager is a partisan Democrat whose radical tax-and-spend policies firmly align him with the Democratic Socialist extremists engaging in a hostile takeover of his party,” said Reilly Richardson, a NRCC spokesperson, in a statement. “Voters know Ager would make their lives more expensive and less safe, which is why they’ll turn out for Jennifer Balkcom.”
一些当地的共和党人仍然认为，由于文化等方面的因素，民主党人很难在这个选区扭转颓势。
Some local Republicans still believe the district is a tough place for a Democrat to escape the party’s battered reputation, especially on cultural issues.
“民主党的主张根本不符合这里人们深信不疑的价值观，”第11选区共和党主席梅里·盖伊说。“我指的也包括那些老派的‘蓝狗派’民主党人——他们的党抛弃了他们，他们自己也清楚。”不过，该选区的共和党议员多年来一直麻烦不断。爱德华兹的前任们各自都有丑闻。前众议员麦迪逊·考索恩的国会生涯因多次触犯法律以及被指控性骚扰大学同学而备受困扰。
“What the Democrat Party stands for just doesn’t align with the values that are deeply held by the people here,” said Merry Guy, chair of the District 11 GOP. “And I’m talking about some of those good old blue dog Democrats, too — their party has left them, and they know that.”The district’s Republican representatives, though, have had trouble for years. Edwards’ predecessors faced scandals of their own. Former Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s time in Congress was plagued by multiple run-ins with the law and allegations that he sexually harassed college classmates.
考索恩的前任、前白幕僚长马克·梅多斯因不配合众议院特别调查委员会的传票，被国会裁定蔑视国会，该委员会当时正在调查2021年1月6日国会大厦骚乱事件。
Cawthorn’s predecessor, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, was held in contempt of Congress for not complying with a subpoena from the House select committee, which was investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.
如果该选区下个月易手，2024年大选结果已是前兆。该选区内有九个县在2024年略微向左转向，而全州和全国大多数地区却向右转。
If this district flips next month, the 2024 election results serve as foreshadowing. Nine counties in the district moved slightly leftward in 2024 as a majority of the state and country moved to the right.
“这是一个倾向共和党的选区，但这是一个大选年，这种倾向可能会被抹平，”资深共和党政治顾问卡特·伦恩说。他补充称，这场竞选的主导因素是特朗普，而非任一候选人的个人优势。“一切掌握在特朗普手中，”伦恩说。
“It’s a Republican-leaning district, but it is an election year where that may get wiped out,” said longtime Republican political consultant Carter Wrenn. He added that the dominant factor in the race is Trump rather than either candidate’s strengths. “It’s in Trump’s hands,” Wrenn said.
目前，趋势对共和党不利。伊朗战争依然不得人心，油价上涨让选民感到沮丧。2024年飓风“海伦”重创该选区，灾后恢复进程缓慢，加剧了第11选区的经济压力。
Right now, the trends are not in the GOP’s favor. The war in Iran remains unpopular, and rising gas prices are frustrating voters. Economic pressures in the 11th District are compounded by what’s been a slow recovery process after Hurricane Helene ravaged the district in 2024.
共和党还担心，他们的参议员候选人沃特利会拖累同党下票候选人。沃特利在特朗普背书下参选，但在民调中始终落后于前州长罗伊·库珀。
Republicans are also concerned that Whatley, their Senate candidate, will stunt the success of others downballot. Whatley entered the race with Trump’s endorsement but has consistently trailed in polls to former Gov. Roy Cooper.
“迈克尔·沃特利对他在选举名单中排在下面的人来说绝对是个‘累赘’（即会给他们带来麻烦或负面影响）；如果特朗普总统当初不干预选举结果的话，这种情况本是可以避免的，”前第11选区共和党主席米歇尔·伍德豪斯说道。
“Michael Whatley will be an albatross on everyone below him on the ballot, and that could’ve been controlled if President Trump would’ve kept his thumb off the scale,” said Michele Woodhouse, a former Republican chair of the 11th District.