阿肯色州民主党参议员提名人哈莉·肖夫纳于周五（2026年10月23日）在阿肯色州霍普的一个竞选停留点与选民交谈。
Arkansas Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner speaks with voters at a campaign stop in Hope, Ark. Friday, Oct. 23, 2026.
斯蒂芬·福勒/美国国家公共电台 阿肯色州霍普——对于参议员候选人哈莉·肖夫纳来说，她所拥有的最重要的政治标签不是她是民主党人。也不是她不是共和党人。相反，是她是一名阿肯色州人。
Stephen Fowler/NPR HOPE, Ark. — For Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, the most important political label she wears isn't that she's a Democrat. Or that she's not a Republican. Instead, it's that she is an Arkansan.
周五，当午餐人群在“Tailgater's Burger Company”用餐时，肖夫纳谴责了她所谓的由两党极端声音驱动的历史上最低效的国会，并向反应积极——尽管持怀疑态度——的选民推销自己，称她将更好地服务他们的需求。
As a lunchtime crowd ate at Tailgater's Burger Company Friday, Shoffner decried what she called a historically unproductive Congress driven by extreme voices in each party and pitched herself to receptive — if skeptical — voters as a candidate who would better serve their needs.
阿肯色州是全国最保守的州之一，2024年近三分之二的选民支持特朗普总统，2020年支持共和党参议员汤姆·科顿。
Arkansas is one of the most conservative states in the country, with nearly two out of three voters supporting President Trump in 2024 and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton in 2020.
但在2026年中期选举的最后几天里，肖夫纳和其他阿肯色州民主党人正穿梭全州，传递一种旨在利用特朗普政府的不受欢迎、顽固的高物价和反现任者情绪的信息。
But in the final days of the 2026 midterm election, Shoffner and other Arkansas Democrats are crisscrossing the state with a message that seeks to capitalize on the Trump administration's unpopularity, stubbornly high prices and anti-incumbency vibes.
“我们是这场沉睡的竞争，”肖夫纳告诉美国国家公共电台。“我是说，我们是没人注意到、也没人会预见到的那场竞争。”共和党人已有所察觉，抢先向这场参议院竞选、位于小石城的第2国会选区以及大规模动员选民行动投入数百万美元，试图遏制选民对该党日益增长的不满情绪。
"We're the sleeper race," Shoffner told NPR. "I mean, we're the race that no one's noticed and that no one is going to see coming." Republicans have taken some notice, pre-emptively pouring millions of dollars into the Senate race, the Little Rock-based 2nd Congressional District and robust get-out-the vote efforts to try and stem the rising tide of dissatisfaction with the party.
但即使在堪萨斯、爱荷华、俄亥俄和得克萨斯等州的参议院竞争被视为势均力敌、以及潜在竞争性众议院竞选的版图深入保守派腹地的这个中期选举周期中，阿肯色州对选举预测者来说似乎仍是一座难以逾越的桥梁。
But even in a midterm cycle where Senate races in states like Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are viewed as tossups, and where the landscape of potentially competitive House races stretches deep into conservative territory, Arkansas seems a bridge too far for election forecasters.
根据库克政治报告（Cook Political Report），阿肯色州第二国会选区被认为是“极可能属于共和党”（Likely Republican），其参议院竞选则为“稳固属于共和党”（Solid Republican）。阿肯色州民主党参议院候选人哈莉·肖夫纳（Hallie Shoffner）强调了她的农业背景，并坚信两党都忽视了该州人民的需求。
Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District is considered "Likely Republican," according to the Cook Political Report, and its Senate race is "Solid Republican." Hallie Shoffner, the Democratic Senate nominee in Arkansas, has emphasized her farming background and belief that both parties have ignored the people's needs in the state.
在阿卡德尔菲亚的一家户外咖啡馆里，香草·汉娜（Vanilla Hannah）表示，她是来支持肖夫纳的，并讨论她自己竞选连任地方太平绅士（justice of the peace）的事情。她说，阿肯色州今年有可能选出民主党人，因为这批候选人似乎愿意与民众合作以满足他们的需求——而且民众的需求很多。
Arkansas First At an outdoor coffee shop in Arkadelphia, Vanilla Hannah said she was there to support Shoffner and talk about her own reelection bid to be a local justice of the peace. She said it's possible that Arkansas could elect Democrats this year because the crop of candidates seems willing to work with people to meet their needs — and there are a lot of them.
“当涉及到基本需求或其他事情时，你名字后面的‘D’（民主党）或‘R’（共和党）根本没有任何意义，因为我们都在承受痛苦，都有相同的问题，每个人都准备好迎接改变了，”她说。“参加选举不仅仅是具体围绕民主党政策、共和党政策、自由意志党政策或其他什么政策竞选。这只是你信仰什么，而且现在似乎越来越多的人有了共同的信仰。”随后，肖夫纳访问了附近贝尔内的一家小型家庭农场，哈特利（Hatley）家族的几位成员在那里熬煮高粱制作糖浆，并谈论了他们支持她竞选的原因。
"When it comes down to basic needs or whatever, the 'D' or the 'R' after your name don't mean a thing, because we're all suffering and all having the same issues and everybody's ready for a change," she said. "And running for an election is not just running specifically on the Democratic policies or the Republican or the libertarians or whatever. It's just what you believe in, and it seems like more and more people are having a common belief now." Later, Shoffner visited a small family farm in nearby Bierne where several members of the Hatley family cooked sorghum to make syrup and talked about why they were supporting her campaign.
肖夫纳是一名历经多代的农民，她决定在2025年关闭其家族的农场业务，理由是投入成本上升以及特朗普政府的关税和贸易政策带来了财务逆风。这反过来激发了她参加参议院竞选，并影响了她竞选活动的许多重点。
Shoffner is a multigenerational farmer who decided to shut down her family's operation in 2025, citing financial headwinds from rising input costs and Trump administration tariff and trade policies. That in turn inspired her Senate run and influenced much of her campaign's focus.
肖夫纳坐进一辆全地形多功能车的驾驶盘后，驾车驶过这处房产，并讲述了她的人生故事：这段经历曾让她离开农场、从事非营利工作，又在父亲生病时回到了家乡。她不相信自己获胜几率很低的这种说法。
Sliding behind the wheel of a side-by-side utility vehicle, Shoffner takes off across the property and recounts her life story that led her away from the farm, into nonprofit work and back home when her dad got sick. She doesn't buy the argument that her chances are low to win.
“这场竞选与民主党人、共和党人、无党派人士或任何党派标签无关，”她说。“这不是什么奇怪的政治结盟，这是价值观的结盟。这是基于常识、基于同情心、基于实实在在的付出，重新调整阿肯色州的代表权。”她说，全国共和党人——以及民主党人——犯了一个错误，忽视了阿肯色州居民的需求，尤其是在农业和贸易政策方面。
"This race isn't about Democrats or Republicans or independents or any of that," she said. "This isn't some kind of weird political alignment, this is a values alignment. This is reorienting representation in Arkansas based on common sense, based on compassion and based on showing up." She said national Republicans — and Democrats — have made the mistake of ignoring the needs of Arkansas residents, especially with agriculture and trade policies.
“我来自一个在我有生之年就消亡的地方、一个社区，”她说。“我是最后一个留下来的人，我感到被抛在了身后。我觉得没人真正跟我说话，也没人谈论我。我觉得人们在替我做决定，却不让我参与，最终他们在重写规则。”如今，随着柴油价格创纪录高位、伊朗战争和关税政策，肖夫纳表示，她认为各派阿肯色州选民都想要一些改变。她也很高兴这场竞选没有迎来全国民主党团体大量外部空中支持（指电视广告投放等）的涌入。
"I come from a place, a community, that died in my lifetime," she said. "I was the last one left and I felt left behind. I felt like no one was really talking to me or talking about me. I felt like folks were making decisions about me, but without me, and ultimately they were rewriting the rules." Now, with record diesel prices, the war in Iran and tariffs, Shoffner said she believes that Arkansas voters of all stripes want something different. She's also glad that the race hasn't seen an influx of outside air support from national Democratic groups.
“我不需要他们，真的不需要，”她说。“这是一个‘阿肯色优先’的竞选，我是阿肯色人，我想直接跟阿肯色人对话，我想让他们知道，当我去华盛顿时，我名字旁边唯一有意义的字母将是‘A’和‘R’（阿肯色州邮政缩写 AR）。”阿肯色州第2国会选区民主党提名人克里斯·琼斯表示，选民对特朗普政府未兑现的承诺感到沮丧。“民众很痛苦”另一方面，克里斯·琼斯获得了民主党国会竞选委员会的支持，被列为数十个“由红转蓝”翻盘目标选区之一。
"I don't need them, I really don't," she said. "This is an Arkansas First campaign, and I'm an Arkansan, and I want to talk directly to Arkansans, and I want them to know that when I go to D.C., the only letters that will mean anything next to my name are the "A" and the "R." Chris Jones, the Democratic nominee for Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, says voters are frustrated with promises made by the Trump administration that haven't been kept. 'Folks are hurting' On the flip side, Chris Jones has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as one of dozens of "Red to Blue" flip targets.
在小石城一家啤酒厂举办的户外爵士乐之夜上，琼斯在造访投票点和一场高中橄榄球返校赛的间隙穿梭人群，而这场竞选已见证了共和党方面数百万美元的外部开支。
At an outdoor jazz night held at a brewery in Little Rock, Jones worked the crowd between visits to polling sites and a high school football homecoming game on a campaign that has seen millions of dollars in outside spending by Republicans. "They understand that people are in pain," he said. "Folks are hurting.
“他们理解人们在痛苦之中，”他说，“人们正在受到伤害。他们买不起汽油。他们买不起杂货。而我们的竞选一直关乎所有人的承受能力和问责制。因此，价格实在太高了。”琼斯还在2022年竞选过州长，对手是共和党州长萨拉·赫卡比·桑德斯，但最终落败，因此他作为一名能够对众议员弗伦奇·希尔构成实质性挑战的候选人，一开始就拥有较高的知名度。
They can't afford gas. They can't afford groceries. And our campaign has always been about affordability and accountability for all. So prices are way too high." Jones also ran for governor against Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders in 2022 and lost, so he started off with higher name recognition as a serious challenger to Rep. French Hill.
他知道这是一项艰巨的任务，即便在一个对民主党更为有利的全国大环境下也是如此。
He knows it's a tall task, even in a national environment more favorable to Democrats.
希尔是一位长期在任的现任议员，在2021年由人口普查主导的选区重划之后，他的选区变得更加保守。
Hill is a longtime incumbent whose district only became more conservative after the last Census-led redistricting in 2021.
但他也知道，民主党人、共和党人和独立选民同样都愿意寻找现任领导层之外的选择。
But he also knows that Democrats, Republicans and independent voters alike are open to looking for something other than the current leadership.
“最令人着迷的是：这里的许多人投票支持总统和本届政府，是因为他们想要更低的物价、他们想要结束对外战争、他们想要结束腐败，特别是处理涉案爱泼斯坦的文件，”他说，“这些都没有发生，所以他们感到非常沮丧。”像许多在下周面临潜在胶着选情的州一样，阿肯色州有着较长的单一政党执政历史，这导致人们对现状和现任官员产生了愤怒与挫败感，这种情绪超出了典型的党派标签或投票历史。
"Here's what's so fascinating: a lot of folks here voted for the president and this administration because they wanted lower prices, they wanted to end foreign wars, and they wanted to end corruption, particularly with the Epstein files," he said. "None of that has happened, so they're super frustrated." Like many states that have seen the potential for close races next week, Arkansas has a longer history of single-party control that has led to anger and frustration at the status quo and incumbency in a way that extends beyond typical partisan labels or voting history.
“我们容易忘记的一件事，是因为这届政府推出的事情太多了：就在15年前，阿肯色州的整个联邦代表团还是民主党人，”他说。“所以那并不是很久以前的事。他们之所以当选，是因为当时存在的状况，人们感受到的经济焦虑和痛苦——以及人们觉得他们希望华盛顿发生的事情并没有发生。我们现在正处于同样的境地。”
"One of the things that we forget, because there's so much that comes out of this administration: It wasn't but 15 years ago that the entire federal delegation of Arkansas was Democrat," he said. "So it's not that long ago. The reason they got in office was because of the conditions that existed, the economic anxiety and pain that people feel — and folks feeling like what they wanted to happen out of Washington was not happening.
除了民主党众议院竞选委员会的支持外，琼斯还获得了前民主党全国委员会主席哈里森、前交通部长布蒂吉格和得克萨斯州众议员克罗克特的造势助选。伊利诺伊州州长普里茨克和肯塔基州州长贝希尔都为他的竞选背书。他还听到一些平时不支持民主党的人表示将支持他的竞选。
We're in that same place now." In addition to the DCCC support, Jones has had campaign visits from former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear have both endorsed his run. And he's heard from people who don't normally support Democrats saying they'll back his campaign.
“民众确实在受苦，到了这样一个地步：他们说，‘我的生活太糟糕了，我已经不在乎党派了’，”他说。
"Folks are literally hurting, and it's to the point where they're saying, 'my life is so bad that I don't care about party anymore'," he said.
黑人选民投票率激增 另一个有利于民主党本选举周期的因素是，在最高法院做出削弱《投票权法案》部分条款的裁决后，黑人投票率出现激增。
Black voter turnout surges Another factor working in Democrats' favor this election cycle is a surge in Black turnout following a Supreme Court decision that weakened part of the Voting Rights Act.
南方多个州争相重绘众议院选区地图以获取党派优势，许多新选区的划分方式都削弱了黑人的投票权力。阿肯色州议员没有重绘地图——该州的联邦众议员全是共和党人——但在2020年人口普查后，他们以一种让希尔选区更倾向共和党的方式分割了小石城。
Multiple states across the South rushed to redraw House maps to gain a partisan advantage, with many of the new districts crafted in a way that minimized Black voting power. Arkansas lawmakers did not redraw their maps — the state has an entirely Republican congressional delegation — but after the 2020 Census did split Little Rock up in a manner that made Hill's district more Republican.
在该裁决后的初选以及本月中期选举前的提前投票中，南卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州和路易斯安那州等州出现了持续的黑人投票率上升，这可能会影响该地区关键竞选的结果。
In primaries following the ruling, and early voting this month ahead of the midterms, there has been sustained higher Black turnout in states like South Carolina, Georgia and Louisiana in ways that could affect the outcome in key races across the region.
“我认为部分原因在于人们意识到他们的投票权面临迫在眉睫的威胁，”琼斯说。“全国各地的人们都意识到，如果我们现在不站出来，黑人意识到如果我们现在不发声，那么我们将来这样做的能力可能就不复存在了。”
"I think part of it is that folks realized that there was an imminent threat to their right to vote," Jones said. "And people realized across the country that if we don't show up now, and Black folks realize if we don't speak up now, then our ability to do it later might not be there."
马库斯·哈特利是那些在肖夫纳家庭农场与他会面的人之一，他说，投票率的上升看起来像是一次“纠偏”。
Marcus Hatley, one of the people who met with Shoffner at his family farm, said the increased turnout seemed like a "course correction."
“人们对事情发生的方式感到不满，有些人正在倒戈，朝不同的方向投票，”他说。“这在很大程度上与某些州取消有色人种在其选区拥有平等代表权的能力有关。所以在我看来，似乎将会出现一次纠偏。我可能会错，但我相信会有变化。”2026年中期选举
"People are dissatisfied with the way that that happened, and some are crossing sides and voting in a different direction," he said. "And a lot of it has to do with removing, in some of those states, the ability for people of color to have equal representation in their districts. So it looks like to me there's going to be a course correction. I could be wrong, but I believe there's going to be a change." 2026 midterms