周日，巴西人将在一位陷入困境的左翼现任总统和一位右翼挑战者之间做出选择。贸易、安全与民主均在博弈之中。
On Sunday, Brazilians will choose between a beleaguered left-wing incumbent and a right-wing challenger. Trade, security and democracy are on the table.
近来，多位右翼领导人在拉丁美洲相继掌权，他们乘着民众对现任政府不满、对安全形势担忧加剧以及生活成本不断上涨的浪潮上台。
number of right-wing leaders have recently swept into power in Latin America, riding a wave of dissatisfaction with incumbent governments and deepening worries about security and a rising cost of living.
直到现在，作为该地区最大国家的巴西一直是个例外。左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦于2023年开启其第三个非连续任期。他的前任兼对手雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗因试图发动政变阻止卢拉就职而被定罪，判处27年监禁，目前因健康原因正在服居家监禁。
Until now, Brazil, the region’s largest nation, had been the exception. The left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, began his third nonconsecutive term in 2023. His predecessor and rival, Jair Bolsonaro, had been convicted of trying to stage a coup to prevent Mr. Lula from taking office and was sentenced to 27 years, which he is currently serving under house arrest for health reasons.
如今，卢拉因民众普遍认为治安恶化和经济困境而背负重压，面临前总统之子、右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗的挑战。小博尔索纳罗在本月首轮投票中的强劲表现，使他在进入两强对决的次轮投票时占据优势。
Now Mr. Lula, weighed down by widespread perceptions of rising crime and economic woes, faces a challenge from the former president’s son, Flávio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator. Mr. Bolsonaro’s formidable performance in the first voting round this month gave him the edge going into a two-way contest.
选举结果将对巴西及其与美国的关系产生深远影响，尤其是对美关系。以下是几大核心议题。
The outcome will have a profound effect on Brazil and its relations with the United States in particular. Here are some of the major issues at stake.
安全 小博尔索纳罗已表示，将把巴西纳入特朗普政府的反贩毒集团联盟“美洲盾牌”，并与美国合作打击巴西帮派。
Security Mr. Bolsonaro has already said he would add Brazil to the Trump administration’s anti-cartel coalition, called the Shield of the Americas, and work with the United States to fight Brazilian gangs.
他在去年的社交媒体帖子中暗示欢迎美军干预巴西，尽管近期在采访中否认了这一点，称合作将仅限于情报领域。但正是小博尔索纳罗成功游说特朗普将两个巴西帮派指定为恐怖组织。
He suggested in social media posts last year that he would welcome U.S. military intervention in Brazil, though he denied that in recent interviews, saying the cooperation would be limited to intelligence. But it was Mr. Bolsonaro who successfully lobbied Mr. Trump to designate two Brazilian gangs as terrorist groups.
卢拉拒绝加入该联盟，警告称在安全事务上与美国过度纠缠可能威胁国家主权。
Mr. Lula has resisted joining the coalition, warning that intertwining too closely with the United States on security matters could threaten the nation’s sovereignty.
贸易 特朗普政府曾对巴西产品加征关税，试图以此施压、干扰对雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗的起诉，但这场施压行动并未奏效。许多关税最终被削减，巴西经济在很大程度上未受特朗普总统关税攻势的实质性损害。
Trade The Trump administration imposed tariffs on Brazilian products in an unsuccessful pressure campaign to disrupt the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. Many of those tariffs were eventually scaled back, and Brazil’s economy has remained largely unharmed by President Trump’s tariff campaign.
然而，卢拉若再次当选，将增加与美国发生更多经济冲突的风险，可能损害巴西经济。当然，博尔索纳罗也无法幸免于这些问题；特朗普向盟友和对手同时加征关税的做法早已为人所知。
Another term for Mr. Lula, however, would increase the risk of more economic conflicts with the United States that might hurt the Brazilian economy. Of course, Mr. Bolsonaro would not be immune to those problems; Mr. Trump has been known to levy tariffs against allies as well as adversaries.
特朗普政府已表示有意进口巴西石油，以应对伊朗战争相关的供应中断，并进口巴西稀土矿产，以减少美国对中国此类资源的依赖。在贸易问题上，博尔索纳罗预计将比卢拉更紧密地与美国结盟，但两位领导人都不敢得罪作为主要贸易伙伴的中国。
The Trump administration has signaled an interest in importing Brazilian oil to counter disruptions related to the Iran war and the country’s rare-earth minerals to reduce U.S. dependence on China for those resources. Mr. Bolsonaro is expected to align Brazil more closely with the United States than Mr. Lula has on trade issues, but neither leader can afford to anger China, a major trading partner.
大选结果还可能影响巴西作为一个集团、与该地区其他国家共同同美国谈判贸易的能力。
The election could also affect Brazil’s ability to negotiate trade with the United States as a bloc with other countries in the region.
“巴西与邻国的关系极具挑战性，”热图利奥·瓦加斯基金会（一家研究机构）国际关系助理教授卡罗利娜·莫莱克说。她补充道，这在邻国阿根廷身上表现得尤为明显，后者的右翼总统是特朗普的亲密盟友。她说，博尔索纳罗可能更容易与拉美地区的右翼同僚开展合作。
“Brazil’s relations with its neighbors have been extremely challenging,” said Carolina Moehlecke, an assistant professor of international relations at Getúlio Vargas Foundation, a research institution. This was especially true of its neighbor, Argentina, she added, whose right-wing president is a close ally of Mr. Trump. Mr. Bolsonaro, she said, might have an easier time cooperating with fellow right-wing leaders in Latin America.
国内政策 如果博尔索纳罗赢得选票，环保人士担心将回到其父亲的政策，即允许亚马逊雨林快速遭到毁林——这一趋势在卢拉总统任内已基本扭转。小博尔索纳罗不认为气候变化是由人类活动引起的，并主张向采矿和耕作开放受保护土地。
Domestic Policy If Mr. Bolsonaro carries the vote, conservationists fear a return to his father’s policies of allowing rapid deforestation in the Amazon rainforest a trend that was largely reversed under President Lula. The younger Mr. Bolsonaro does not believe that climate change is caused by humans and has defended opening up protected lands to mining and farming.
他还承诺遏制国家不断上升的债务。莫莱克表示，如果他试图通过削减公共开支来实现这一目标，可能会在政治上引发敏感反应，尤其是在涉及巴西广受欢迎的社会福利政策时。在周日大选前夕，卢拉曾承诺增加福利发放。
He has also pledged to stem the nation’s rising debt. If he attempts to accomplish that through cuts to public spending, that could prove politically sensitive, Ms. Moehlecke said, especially when it comes to social welfare policies with broad popularity in Brazil. In the lead-up to Sunday’s elections, Mr. Lula had promised to increase welfare payments.
民主 卢拉将此次选举定性为对国家民主的考验，并将博索纳罗家族描绘为对民主制度的威胁。莫莱克表示，博索纳罗很可能会将国家引向更专制的方向，尽管他的言辞通常比其父亲温和。
Democracy Mr. Lula has framed the election as a test of the nation’s democracy and portrays the Bolsonaros as a threat to democratic institutions. Ms. Moehlecke said it was likely Mr. Bolsonaro would take the country in a more authoritarian direction, though his rhetoric is generally tamer than his father’s.
但如果博索纳罗获胜，其政党在立法机构取得的进展可能使他能够兑现一些最具两极分化的承诺：为其父亲争取大赦、赦免上届大选后冲击巴西权力中枢大楼的暴乱者，以及让参议院更愿意尝试弹劾定罪其父亲的法官。
But if Mr. Bolsonaro wins, his party’s gains in the legislature could allow him to deliver on some of his most polarizing promises: amnesty for his father, pardons for rioters who stormed Brazil’s halls of power after the last election, and a Senate more willing to try to remove justices who convicted his father.
如果卢拉获胜，他极有可能面临对其权力的重大制约。包括博索纳罗家族其他四名成员在内的右翼候选人，在国家立法选举中取得了显著进展。
If Mr. Lula wins, he most likely will face significant checks against his power. Right-wing candidates, including four other members of the Bolsonaro family, have made significant strides in the nation’s legislative races.