
欧盟一位高层官员表示,与澳大利亚达成的自由贸易协定旨在维护澳大利亚和欧洲的利益,以应对“强权回归”震惊世界的局面,与此同时,联盟党呼吁阿尔巴尼斯政府重新谈判。
斯特凡娜·塞茹尔内已从法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的核心政治圈子转型为布鲁塞尔最具影响力的政策制定者之一。作为欧盟委员会负责繁荣与产业战略的执行副主席,他主导着关乎组成欧洲30万亿美元单一市场的4.5亿消费者和生产者的决策。这包括在面对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的全球关税攻势时,支持大胆的自由贸易议程。
The free-trade deal with the EU is about safeguarding Australian and European interests in a world shocked by the “return of big powers”, one of the bloc’s top-ranking officials has said, as the Coalition calls on the Albanese government to renegotiate.
“我真心相信由共享价值观者组成的俱乐部,这些价值观包括民主、和平解决冲突和国际法治,”塞茹尔内在接受NewsWire独家专访时表示。“这些自由贸易协定具有战略意义,是多元化和增强战略自主的工具。”
Stephane Sejourne has transitioned from French President Emmanuel Macron’s inner political circle into one of the most powerful policy shapers in Brussels.
自由贸易推动已在文本层面敲定六项协定,其中包括与印度和南美贸易集团南方共同市场(MERCOSUR)的协定。仅与印度和南方共同市场的协定就覆盖近22亿人口和全球四分之一以上的经济活动。
塞茹尔内表示,与堪培拉达成的协定——每年为澳大利亚带来约100亿美元价值——是“明确的双赢”。
“它利于商业,但也确实向世界其他地区发出了强烈的政治信号,”他说,并补充道,“我们太容易忘记此类协定的战略维度。”“我们有时会迷失在数字和行业中——谁在赢,谁在输。”
As the European Commission’s executive vice-president for prosperity and industrial strategy, he steers decisions for the 450 million consumers and producers that make up Europe’s $30 trillion single market.
“但实际上,这是一项战略性政治协定,关乎澳大利亚在世界上的角色和欧洲在世界上的角色。”
联盟党内部部分人士反对该协定,该协定取消了澳大利亚商品进入欧盟98%的关税。
That includes supporting a bold free-trade agenda in the face of US President Donald Trump’s global tariff assault.
但国家党认为,该协议辜负了牛肉和羊肉生产者,同时如果澳大利亚在气候行动承诺上达标不足,还将面临处罚。贸易部长唐·法雷尔上周承认,谈判代表无法满足红肉生产者的所有诉求,但他表示,他的“职责是代表国家利益,而不仅仅是澳大利亚经济的某一个板块”。大多数其他行业都呼吁联盟党支持该协议,蔬菜种植者的最高行业组织也不例外。
“I really believe in the club of those who share values, including democracy, peaceful resolution of conflict and the international rule of law,” Mr Sejourne told NewsWire in an exclusive interview.
“澳大利亚蔬菜种植者现在需要争取一切可能的市场机会,而欧盟自贸协定就是那些难得的、甚至可能不会再重演的机会之一,”澳大利亚蔬菜种植者协会(AUSVEG)首席执行官迈克尔·库特表示。“正如在移民辩论中一样,一场旨在阻止这项自贸协定的民粹主义盲动,有可能给澳大利亚蔬菜种植者和我们的国家粮食安全造成严重的附带损害。”
“These free trade agreements are strategic and an instrument for diversification and for greater strategic autonomy.”
“澳大利亚的主权选择”推动欧盟自由贸易攻势的经济理由很简单:欧洲依赖美国作为出口目的地,同时又严重依赖中国获取投入品,包括关键矿产。随着这两个国家都无视国际贸易规则,欧盟处于暴露状态,渴望寻找新朋友。但塞茹尔内的担忧超越了经济层面,延伸至对美国的国防依赖。“欧洲需要照顾好自己的安全,因为归根结底,俄罗斯的边界不仅与乌克兰接壤,还与欧洲其他地区接壤,”他说。
The free-trade push has closed, at least on paper, six deals, including with India and the South American trading bloc MERCOSUR.
特朗普决定在美油价创纪录高位之际,仅从俄罗斯进口10天份量的柴油,这被广泛视为对多年来因俄入侵乌克兰而实施的集体制裁的背叛。市场分析师称,这一决定不会对价格产生影响。随后,美国被指扣留对乌情报、削弱其使用SpaceX旗下军用级卫星网络的权限,而特朗普则呼吁“乌克兰换个总统”。
塞茹尔纳表示,特朗普政府时期美国对乌克兰的支持一直不稳定,但他暗示,最近的动荡是由白宫面临的国内政治压力加剧所致。他说:“在我们形成判断之前,我认为我们需要等到美国中期选举之后,看看支持的稳定性如何。”无论如何,他补充说,欧洲需要“更多战略盟友”。当被问及澳大利亚是否应该效仿时,他拒绝表态。
The agreements with India and MERCOSUR alone cover almost 2.2 billion people and more than a quarter of world economic activity.
“让我非常清楚地说:这是澳大利亚的主权选择,”他说。“我可以给你一条清晰的界线,说明欧洲在国防方面的主权选择是什么,但我绝对不会对澳大利亚的选择发表看法。”不过,他确实表示,澳大利亚和欧洲在太平洋地区有“共同利益”,因为那里有法国海外领土。“很明显,我们确实需要与澳大利亚共同努力,以确保太平洋地区的和平未来,并以共同价值观为基础,”塞茹尔纳说。
Mr Sejourne said the deal with Canberra – worth some $10bn a year to Australia – is “a clear win-win”.
“后果” 近年来,俄罗斯对澳大利亚的后院表现出了更大的兴趣,试图在印度尼西亚部署具备核能力的轰炸机,并与中国进行军事演习。北京和莫斯科不断深化的国防关系只会加剧地区紧张局势,促使包括乌克兰政府在内的观察人士警告,欧洲发生的事情对太平洋地区有直接后果。中国还为俄罗斯提供了经济生命线,并仍然是其最大贸易伙伴,双边贸易额约为3400亿美元。
“It’s good for business but it really sends a strong political signal to the rest of the world,” he said, adding that “too often we forget the strategic dimension of such agreements”.
这比俄罗斯第二大贸易伙伴印度多出近2500亿美元。但俄罗斯仅占中国贸易总额的约3%,而欧盟占比高达14%,贸易额达1.2万亿美元。《新闻通讯社》向塞茹尔纳提出,欧洲可以通过向中国施压,对俄罗斯经济施加更大压力。
他并未证实正在考虑这一战略,但表示:“正如中国与俄罗斯发展关系具有战略意义一样,欧洲向中国表明其关系选择会产生后果,特别是在乌克兰战争问题上,这也具有战略意义。”
“We sometimes get lost in the figures, in the sectors – who’s winning, who’s losing.“ “But actually, this is a strategic political agreement that’s about the role of Australia in the world and the role of Europe in the world.” Elements of the Coalition oppose the deal, which scraps 98 per cent of tariffs on Australian goods entering the EU. But the Nationals argue the agreement fails beef and lamb producers while exposing Australia to penalties if it falls short of climate action commitments. Trade Minister Don Farrell last week accepted negotiators could not secure everything red meat producers wanted, but that his “job is to represent the national interest, not just one section of the Australian economy”. Most other sectors have called on the Coalition to back the deal, including the peak body for vegetable growers. “Australian vegetable growers need every market opportunity they can get right now, and the European FTA is one of those rare, and possibly never-to-be-repeated, opportunities,” AUSVEG chief executive Michael Coote said. “Just like with the immigration debate, a populist stampede to stop this free-trade agreement risks severe collateral damage to Australian vegetable growers and our national food security.” ‘Sovereign choice for Australia’ The economic rationale driving the EU’s free-trade push is simple: Europe is dependent on the US as an export destination while heavily reliant on China for inputs, including critical minerals. With both countries flouting international trade rules, the EU is exposed and wants new friends. But Mr Sejourne’s concerns went beyond economics to defence dependency on the US. “Europe needs to look after its own security because, at the end of the day, the borders of Russia are not just with Ukraine but the rest of Europe,” he said. Mr Trump’s decision to import just 10 days’ worth of diesel from Russia amid record-high fuel prices in the US was broadly seen as a betrayal of years of collective sanctions against Moscow for invading Ukraine. Market analysts say it will not make a difference to prices. That decision was followed by allegations the US withheld intelligence from Ukraine, impaired its access to a SpaceX-owned, military-grade satellite network, and by Mr Trump’s call for “Ukraine to get a new president”. Mr Sejourne said US support for Ukraine had been inconsistent under the Trump administration, but suggested the latest rockiness was spurred by domestic political pressure mounting on the White House. “Before we form judgement, I think we need to wait until after the US midterm elections to see how stable the support is,” he said. Regardless, he added that Europe needs “more strategic allies”. Asked if Australia should follow suit, he refused to say. “Let me be very clear: this is a sovereign choice for Australia,” he said. “I can give you a clear line on what Europe’s sovereign choices are in terms of defence, but I am absolutely not going to give a view on Australia’s.” However, he did say Australia and Europe have a “common interest in the Pacific” as it is home to French overseas territories. “It’s clear that we do need to work jointly with Australia to ensure a peaceful future for the Pacific region and on the basis of shared values,” Mr Sejourne said. ‘Consequences’ Russia has taken a greater interest in Australia’s backyard in recent years, trying to park nuclear-capable bombers in Indonesia and carrying out war games with China. The deepening defence relationship between Beijing and Moscow has only fuelled tensions in the region, prompting observers, including the Ukrainian government, to warn that what happens in Europe has direct consequences for the Pacific. China also offers Russia an economic lifeline and remains its biggest trading partner, with two-way trade at approximately $340bn. It is almost $250bn more than Russia’s second-biggest trading partner, India. But Russia only represents around 3 per cent of China’s total trade, whereas the EU accounts for up to 14 per cent at $1.2 trillion. NewsWire put to Mr Sejourne that Europe could do more to pressure the Russian economy by pressuring China. He did not confirm that strategy was being considered, but said that just as it is “strategic for China to have a relationship with Russia, it’s also strategic for Europe to show China that its choice of relationships have consequences, particularly as regards the war in Ukraine”.