市场对人工智能交易的投入已如此之深，以至于如果巨额支出无法获得回报，几乎没有任何容错空间，Citadel Securities 指出。
Markets have become so invested in the artificial intelligence trade that there is very little room for error if the massive spending doesn’t pay off, according to Citadel Securities.
Citadel 的 EMEA 固定收益销售主管 Nohshad Shah 在一份报告中写道，科技股的抛售表明，投资者对巨额 AI 支出最终能否产生足够利润变得更加苛求。
The selloff in technology stocks suggests investors are becoming more demanding about whether massive AI spending will ultimately generate sufficient profits, Nohshad Shah, Citadel’s head of EMEA fixed-income sales, wrote in a note.
Shah 写道：“随着经济和股市的很大一部分现在都杠杆化地押注于 AI 交易，在其他风险也威胁要发作之际，几乎没有任何容错余地。”
“With so much of the economy and stock market now levered to the AI trade, there is precious little margin for error just as the other risks threaten to bite,” Shah wrote.
围绕 AI 交易的利弊，知名投资者之间的争论日益激烈，Citadel 创始人 Ken Griffin 警告存在泡沫，而 Blackstone Inc. 总裁 Jon Gray 则表示无需担忧，因为需求“近乎抛物线式增长”。在一次罕见的采访中，Citadel 联席首席投资官 Pablo Salame 表示，支撑 AI 革命的非凡资本需求，正与不愿承担所有这些风险的谨慎放贷人发生冲突。
The debate around the merits and dangers of the AI trade has been growing among prominent investors, with Citadel’s Ken Griffin warning of a bubble while Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray saying there’s no cause for concern as demand is “almost parabolic.”In a rare interview, Citadel co-Chief Investment Officer Pablo Salame said the extraordinary capital demand underpinning the AI revolution is clashing with wary lenders unwilling to take on all that risk.
在 AI 押注急剧平仓的冲击下，科技股上周暴跌，而信用市场的避险信号升至一年多来的最高水平，原因是人们担心不断上升的借贷成本正与多重全球风险碰撞，使融资工作变得更加复杂。
A sharp unwinding of AI bets sent technology stocks tumbling last week while risk-off signals in credit markets climbed to their highest in more than a year on concerns that rising borrowing costs are colliding with a multitude of global risks to complicate fund-raising efforts.
在此背景下，Anthropic PBC 周一申请首次公开募股（IPO），成为首家主要专注于开发 AI 模型并寻求上市的公司。
Against this backdrop, Anthropic PBC filed for an initial public offering Monday, becoming the first company primarily focused on developing AI models to go public.
Shah 表示，关税、财政刺激和高企的能源价格使 AI 投资的融资和运营成本更加高昂，而公众对数据中心建设的反对可能会拖慢项目进度并推高成本。
Tariffs, fiscal stimulus and elevated energy prices have made AI investments more expensive to finance and operate, while public opposition to data-center construction could slow projects and raise costs, Shah said.
他指出，美国迄今为止之所以能够承受这些压力，是因为盈利和信心保持强劲。但 AI 投资和融资的持续回撤，可能会威胁到曾帮助经济抵御高成本冲击的增长和家庭财富。
The US has so far been able to absorb those pressures because earnings and confidence remained strong. But a sustained retreat in AI investment and financing could threaten the growth and household wealth that have helped cushion the economy from higher costs, he said.
Shah 重申了 Griffin 上周的观点，后者表示，美国企业正在纠结于在该技术上投入多少资金，以及能从中提取多少价值。
Shah echoed comments from Griffin last week, who said that American companies are grappling with how much they spend on the technology and how much value they’ll be able to extract from it.
“资本支出本身已成为双向风险，”Shah 写道。“削减开支引发了对投资周期持久性的质疑……而进一步增加开支则引发了关于融资、执行以及最终回报的质疑。”
“Capex itself has become a two-sided risk,” Shah wrote. “Spending cuts raise questions about the durability of the investment cycle…whilst further increases raise questions about financing, execution, and the eventual returns.”