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彭博社

AI债务狂潮重创科技债,交易员争相重新定价风险AI Debt Spree Hammers Tech Debt as Traders Rush to Reprice Risk

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对人工智能(AI)融资的狂热正在冲击美国超过10万亿美元的企业市场,引发投资者对部分大型科技公司风险的重新评估,并导致信用保险价格飙升、市场波动加剧以及业绩下滑。

The rush to finance AI is rattling investors in the more than $10 trillion US corporate market, sparking a repricing of risks around some of the biggest technology companies that’s showing up in spiking prices for credit insurance, heightened volatility and weakening preformance.

根据彭博社整理的数据,甲骨文公司(Oracle Corp.)、博通公司(Broadcom Inc.)和SpaceX等巨头今年已融资近5000亿美元的新债务,用于支付支撑人工智能的基础设施费用。预计未来几个月甚至几年内,这一数字还将大幅上升。据彭博社估算,仅博通公司未来几年就可能筹集约6000亿美元,以资助其计算能力的扩张。

Heavyweights including Oracle Corp., Broadcom Inc. and SpaceX are among the borrowers that priced nearly half a trillion dollars of new debt this year to pay for the infrastructure powering artificial intelligence, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The tally is widely expected to rise by orders of magnitude in the months and years ahead. Broadcom alone may raise about $600 billion to finance computing power in the coming years, according to Bloomberg calculations.

如此迅猛且庞大的融资规模,叠加该技术领域的不确定性以及利率上升,正给整个行业带来日益增长的压力。近几个月来,科技板块已成为信用市场中表现最差的行业之一,投资者承受着亏损压力,而科技公司在债券和信用衍生品市场的日均交易量也大幅飙升。

The pace and sheer scale of the borrowings, combined with unknowns around the technology and rising interest rates, is put growing pressure on the sector. Tech has been among the worst-performing sectors across credit in recent months, leaving investors nursing losses, while average daily trading volumes for tech names in the bond and credit derivatives markets have soared.

近日,有关SpaceX和博通公司可能进行新一轮融资的消息(规模或超1000亿美元),导致与超大规模云服务商和芯片制造商相关的信用衍生品价格攀升,反映出交易员认为未来五年内这些企业违约的风险正在增加。目前,甲骨文的违约风险已超过20%,SpaceX约为16%;即便是全球市值最高的公司英伟达(Nvidia Corp.),其未来五年内的违约风险也被评估为超过7%。

In recent days, news of a wave of potential fresh financings from SpaceX and Broadcom, possibly topping $100 billion, sent credit derivatives linked to hyperscalers and chipmakers climbing to prices that suggest traders see a growing risk of a default over the next five years. For Oracle, it’s now above 20%, for SpaceX it’s about 16% — and even Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, is given a more than 7% risk of default in that time.

“每一次新的融资公告都让人感觉像是又有一个新玩家加入了投资者资产负债表的竞价,而这种情况正在引发一种一年前还难以想象的利差波动,”Allspring Global Investments的高级固定收益交易员Mark Clegg表示。“有些时候,感觉市场每隔几小时就召开一次紧急会议,重新评估人工智能建设规模的定价。”过去,数十亿美元规模的所谓“巨型交易”极为罕见,牵头银行通常会在交易启动前花上数月时间进行预热,而且大多数巨额交易都用于并购。

“Every new financing announcement feels like another entrant in an auction for investor balance sheet, and that’s creating a level of spread volatility that would have seemed hard to imagine a year ago,” said Mark Clegg, senior fixed-income trader at Allspring Global Investments. “Some days it feels like the market is holding an emergency meeting every few hours to reprice the size of the AI buildout.”So-called mega transactions in the tens of billions of dollars used to be few and far between and syndicate banks would spend months telegraphing the deals ahead of launch, plus most of the huge deals were earmarked for mergers and acquisitions.

而今年,美国已有九笔规模达到250亿美元或以上的高评级交易,创下历史纪录,其中大部分属于科技领域。

This year, there have been nine US high-grade deals that are $25 billion or above in size, the most ever, most of them in tech.

与此同时,美国高收益市场正迎来其历史上最繁忙的年份之一。T. Rowe Price的固定收益投资组合经理Steven Kohlenstein表示,尽管债务市场相对较好地消化了创纪录的发行量,但投资者开始要求更高的回报来向该领域提供贷款,尤其是随着融资需求从所谓的“超大规模企业”扩展到芯片制造、数据中心和其他融资结构。

The US high-yield market, meanwhile, is poised for one of its busiest year on record. And while debt markets have absorbed the record supply relatively well, investors are starting to demand higher compensation to lend to the sector, particularly as financing needs expand beyond the so-called hyperscalers into chip financing, data centers, and other structures, according to Steven Kohlenstein, fixed-income portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price.

Kohlenstein表示:“一个担忧是,对相对少数公司以及最终同一人工智能投资周期的敞口正在日益集中,即使这种风险被分散到了不同的发行人、行业和融资结构中。这可能导致相关风险的出现,而这些风险可能并未完全反映在当前的估值中。”目前,问题并不在于信用质量的实际恶化,而在于市场趋于饱和。这些大型借款人大多盈利良好,现金流稳定,且业绩增长势头强劲。而且,它们表现疲软的情况尚未波及更广泛的市场,整体市场仍保持得相对稳健。

“One concern is the growing concentration of exposure to a relatively small group of companies and ultimately the same underlying AI investment cycle, even as that risk gets distributed across different issuers, sectors, and financing structures,” said Kohlenstein. “That creates the potential for correlated risks that may not be fully reflected in current valuations.”For now the issue is less about actual deterioration in credit quality than about market saturation. Most of these big borrowers are profitable, with steady cash flow and earnings momentum. And their weaker performance hasn’t spilled over into the broader market, which has held up relatively well.

这些借款人也在尽可能利用各种需求渠道,通过全球市场借款并探索多种债务结构,以缓解风险。即便如此,在如此短的时间内积累的大量债务,至少也赋予了投资者一定的议价能力,使其能够要求更高的补偿来承担这些债务。此外,人工智能的推广进程、潜在回报以及该技术相关的风险都存在不确定性,这些因素都可能彻底改变估值。

These borrowers are also tapping as many corners of demand as they can, borrowing in global markets and exploring various debt structures to help mitigate risks. But even so, the crush of debt in such a relatively short span of time gives investors at least some bargaining power to demand more compensation for taking on the debt. And there are unknowns about the AI rollout, the potential payoff and the risks around the technology, all of which could upend valuations.

据彭博社周三报道,在近期曝光的预计借款中,博通公司(Broadcom)在为其Anthropic PBC的人工智能项目筹集600亿美元债务融资仅几天后,便开始规划其下一笔重磅交易。根据ICE数据服务公司(ICE Data Services)的数据,周四博通公司五年期信用违约互换(CDS)扩大了3个基点,达到创纪录的136个基点。

Among expected borrowings that have recently come to light, Broadcom is sketching out plans for its next blockbuster deal just days after it launched a $60 billion debt financing to help fund Anthropic PBC’s artificial intelligence buildout, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. Broadcom’s five-year CDS widened by 3 basis points to a record 136 basis points on Thursday, according to ICE Data Services.

《华尔街日报》周三报道称,被广泛视为衡量人工智能信用风险关键指标的甲骨文公司(Oracle),正在与阿波罗集团(Apollo)和高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)进行谈判,以筹集资金用于大规模采购芯片。据部分市场参与者称,这一交易可能采用一种结构:外部投资者为一个专门用于采购芯片并将其租赁给甲骨文的特殊目的工具提供资金,而非由甲骨文直接用无担保债务预先支付巨额芯片采购费用。

Oracle, widely considered a key barometer for gauging AI-credit risk, is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to arrange money for a big purchase of chips, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. That could potentially involve a structure where outside investors fund a separate special purpose vehicle that purchases chips and leases them to Oracle instead of Oracle funding a large chip purchase upfront with unsecured debt, according to some market participants.

这种结构可能会降低甲骨文短期内其他借款需求,并减轻其信用评级所承受的压力。然而,不确定性仍令投资者感到不安。周四,为防范甲骨文债务违约而提供的担保成本上升了约10.5个基点,达到创纪录的261个基点。

The structure would likely reduce Oracle’s other near term borrowing needs and ease pressure on its credit rating. Still, the uncertainty is unnerving investors. The cost of guaranteeing Oracle debt against default about 10.5 basis points Thursday to a record close of 261 basis points.

与此同时,据报道,SpaceX公司正在与银行和投资者进行谈判,计划筹集400亿美元用于从英伟达公司(Nvidia Corp.)购买芯片。受此消息影响,衡量该公司信用风险的指标已连续第二天触及历史高位。

Meanwhile, a measure of SpaceX’s credit risk is trading at a record for a second straight day after reports the company is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy chips from Nvidia Corp.

从许多方面来看,这些价格调整反映了一个处于十字路口上的市场。企业需要大量且不断增长的资金,以支付持续扩大技术规模所需的计算能力。但Wavelength Capital Management的首席投资官Andrew Dassori表示,随着竞争和潜在监管的加剧,收入增长可能会变得不再那么惊人。由此可能引发的市场波动,为交易员创造了机会。

In many ways, the repricings reflect a market that is at a crossroads. Companies have immense and growing funding needs to pay for the computing capacity required to keep scaling up the technology. But revenue growth is at risk of becoming less extraordinary as competition and potentially regulation grow, according to Andrew Dassori, chief investment officer at Wavelength Capital Management. The potential market swings that result can create opportunities for traders, he said.

Dassori说:“市场正在适应这些状况,从利差的变动以及波动性的角度来看,这一点已经显而易见。”

“Markets are adapting to these conditions and you see this in how spreads move and through the lens of volatility,” said Dassori.