美国银行公司（Bank of America Corp.）的策略师表示，为人工智能基础设施融资的债务狂潮正让各国政府与科技巨头在资金竞争中对立起来。
The debt binge to finance artificial intelligence infrastructure is pitting governments against technology giants in a competition for capital.
由于地缘政治担忧、高企的油价以及更高的政策利率，收益率已经承受压力，这推高了发展中国家的借款成本。
That’s driving up borrowing costs for developing nations, with yields already under pressure due to geopolitical concerns, elevated oil prices and higher policy rates, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
美国银行负责东欧、中东和非洲的主权信用策略师梅尔维尔·帕贾（Merveille Paja）表示，新兴市场美元债券的平均收益率今年上半年已飙升近一个百分点，达到去年4月以来的最高水平。寻求对即将到期债务进行再融资的各国政府可能会发现这是一个挑战。
The average yield on emerging-market dollar bonds has soared almost a percentage point this half to the highest since April last year. Governments seeking to refinance maturing debt may find that a challenge, according to Merveille Paja, a sovereign credit strategist for Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at BofA.
根据彭博社（Bloomberg）汇编的数据，仅两家科技巨头——亚马逊公司（Amazon.com Inc.）和字母表公司（Alphabet Inc.）——今年上半年就已经发行了相当于约700亿美元的债务。相比之下，自7月1日以来，新兴市场主权借款人的欧洲债券发行量下降了一半，至45亿美元，而去年同期为910亿美元。
Just two tech giants — Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. — have already issued the equivalent of about $70 billion of debt so far this half, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By contrast, eurobond issuance by emerging-market sovereign borrowers is down by half to $45 billion since July 1, compared with $91 billion in the same period last year.
在投资级新兴市场国家中，发行量下降了56%，至29亿美元。10月份迄今尚未有任何销售。
Among investment-grade emerging-market countries, issuance has declined 56% to $29 billion. There haven’t been any sales so far in October.
帕贾在接受采访时表示：“超大规模数据中心运营商实际上正在挤出新兴市场的风险，对我们的资产类别而言确实是一个风险。”她说，随着全球金融状况收紧，收益率上升可能会伤害那些等待更好机会进行再融资的借款人。
“The risk that hyperscalers actually are crowding out emerging markets really is a risk for our asset class,” Paja said in an interview. With global financial conditions tightening, the rise in yields could hurt borrowers waiting for a better opportunity to refinance, she said.
根据彭博社汇编的数据，发展中国家借款人有大约277亿美元以美元和欧元计价的外债将在年底前到期。沙特阿拉伯的再融资需求最大，为52亿美元，土耳其为30亿美元。
Developing-nation borrowers have about $27.7 billion of dollar- and euro-denominated external debt coming due by year-end, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia with $5.2 billion and Turkey with $3 billion have the largest refinancing needs.
根据彭博社的计算，全球范围内，今年由人工智能驱动的债务发行量已经超过445亿美元。彭博行业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）预计，这一趋势将加剧，明年超大规模数据中心的借款额预计将攀升至高达500亿美元。据彭博社报道，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）正与银行和投资者谈判，以筹集40亿美元用于从英伟达公司（Nvidia Corp.）购买芯片。这可能包括300亿美元的投资级债券债务。
Globally, AI-driven debt issuance has already exceeded $445 billion this year, according to Bloomberg calculations. The trend is expected to intensify, with hyperscaler borrowing seen rising to as high as $500 billion next year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is in talks with banks and investors to raise $40 billion to buy chips from Nvidia Corp., Bloomberg reported. That could include $30 billion in investment-grade bonds debt.
债券投资者不得不在收益率更高、利润极高的人工智能相关公司的债务，与受到持续的美国与伊朗战争以及美国国债收益率上升沉重打击的新兴市场主权债务之间做出选择。根据彭博社的一项指数，今年6月，新兴市场主权债务提供的收益率仅比美国债务高出1.5个百分点，约为其五年平均溢价的一半。
Bond investors are having to pick between higher-yielding debt from the immensely profitable AI-linked companies or emerging-market sovereigns which have been hard hit by the ongoing US-Iran war and rising US Treasury yields. EM sovereign debt offered as little as 1.5 percentage points on top of US debt in June, roughly half of its five-year average premium, according to a Bloomberg index.
尽管如此，在利差最窄的国家与风险溢价更宽的国家之间，这种影响还是存在细微差别的。由于要与评级相似的超大规模数据中心运营商竞争，投资级新兴市场面临更高借款成本的风险最大。
Still, the impact has been nuanced between countries with the tightest spreads versus those with a wider risk premium. Investment-grade emerging markets are most at risk of higher borrowing costs as they compete against similarly rated hyperscalers.
先锋集团（Vanguard）全球新兴市场研究主管迈卡·詹姆斯（Micah James）表示：“利差交易最紧的主权发行人中已经出现了一些压力。投资者可以更容易地在评级最高的新兴市场主权债务和投资级科技发行人之间进行替代。”随着低利率时代走向终结，对资金的竞争、美国和欧洲不断扩大的公共赤字以及发展中国家不断增加的融资需求，促使投资者在挑选时更加挑剔。
“Some pressure has materialized among the tightest-trading investment-grade sovereign issuers,” said Micah James, global head of emerging-markets research at Vanguard. “Investors can more easily substitute between highly-rated EM sovereign debt and investment-grade technology issuers.”The competition for capital and ever larger public deficits in the US and Europe as well as increased financing needs of the developing world push investors to be more selective as the era of low rates comes to an end.
安联环球投资（Allianz SE）新兴市场债务首席投资组合经理埃奥根·麦克多纳（Eoghan McDonagh）认为，这甚至可能对高质量的新兴市场发行人有利。
That could even work in favor of high-quality emerging-market issuers, according to Eoghan McDonagh, lead portfolio manager for EM debt at Allianz SE.
麦克多纳说：“对我们而言，这并非在选择新兴市场债券还是超大规模数据中心运营商债券之间二选一的情况。我们监测两者之间的利差，以帮助判断估值何时具有吸引力。来自美国账户的需求一直很好，他们一直将新兴市场主权投资级名称用作分散其部分超大规模数据中心敞口的一种方式。”管理着卡米尼亚克（Carmignac）、并曾支持Mistral、SpaceX和Revolut进行筹资的卡米尼亚克公司董事长兼首席投资官爱德华·卡米尼亚克（Edouard Carmignac）表示，那些疲于应付疲软增长和高额债务的政府可能不得不支付更高代价来借入更多资金。
“For us, it is not an either/or situation of picking an EM or a hyperscaler bond,” McDonagh said. “We monitor the spread between the two, to help judge when valuations are attractive. There has been good demand from US accounts who have been using EM sovereign investment-grade names as a diversifier from some of their hyperscaler exposure.”But governments struggling with weak growth and high debt may have to pay up to borrow more, said Edouard Carmignac, chairman and chief investment officer of Carmignac, which has backed Mistral, SpaceX and Revolut in fundraising.
他说：“当资金再次变贵时，选择就变得至关重要。更加稀缺的资金偏爱最有前途的公司，尤其是那些利用增强智能的公司，同时却将那些饱受财政失控之苦的政府挤出市场。”
“When money becomes expensive again, choosing becomes essential,” he said. “Scarcer money favors the most promising companies, particularly those harnessing augmented intelligence, while crowding out governments suffering from fiscal incontinence.”