债务推动的人工智能投资热潮的突然醒悟，使投资者纷纷抛售股票，转而涌入政府债券，而政府债券如今似乎正重新夺回其作为避险资产和对冲股票及信贷市场波动的工具的地位。
A rude awakening over the debt-fuelled AI binge has sent investors rushing out of stocks and into government bonds, which now seem to be reclaiming their status as a safe haven and a hedge against equity and credit market wobbles.
今年大部分时间里，债券几乎没有提供保护作用，因为通胀压力将借贷成本推至数十年来的高点，导致投资者谨慎地将对冲基金和其他资产视为替代选择。
For much of the year, bonds have offered little protection as inflationary pressure pushed borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, leaving investors warily looking to hedge funds and other assets as alternatives.
但周三发生了一件奇怪的事情：尽管美国通胀报告高于预期，美国国债和其他政府债券却出现了强劲反弹，这使得美联储今年加息的可能性仍被保留。
But on Wednesday, something strange happened: Treasuries and other government bonds rallied sharply, despite a hotter-than-expected US inflation report, which left chances of a US rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year on the table.
投资者目前更大的担忧是，尤其是在通胀居高不下的情况下，大规模的人工智能支出是否能够及时回本，以及公司还能在当前资本成本下维持多久的融资能力。
The bigger concern for investors now is whether massive AI spending will pay off soon enough, especially with inflation running hot, and how much longer companies will be able to continue to raise funds at current costs of capital.
信贷市场也出现了紧张迹象，一些暴露于人工智能风险的公司违约保险成本已创下历史新高。
Credit markets are also showing strain, with the cost of insuring some AI-exposed companies against default hitting records.
“美国CPI的上行惊喜以及随后债券的反弹高度违背直觉，”TD证券高级利率策略师Prashant Newnaha表示。
"The upside surprise in US CPI and the subsequent rally in bonds is highly counter-intuitive," said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities.
“最清晰的解读是，人工智能的低迷正在重新定价增长预期，导致债券成为股票的对冲工具，”他说。
"The cleanest read through is that the slump in AI is repricing growth expectations down leading to bonds serving as a hedge for stocks," he said.
周四，基准美国10年期国债收益率下降8.4个基点至5.105%，触及三周以来的最低水平，并远离上周触及的24年高点。
On Thursday, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 8.4 basis points to 5.105%, hitting its lowest level in three weeks and easing away from the 24-year high it touched last week.
基准日本10年期国债收益率下降6.5个基点至2.93%，为自9月10日以来的最低水平。德国国债期货和法国OAT期货上涨0.7%。在旧金山联储行长玛丽·戴利表示可能仍需进一步加息但无需在10月27-28日的会议上采取行动后，对近期行动的押注也有所降温。
The benchmark 10-year JGB yield dropped 6.5 bps to 2.93%, the lowest since September 10. Futures for German bunds and French OATs were up 0.7% Wagers on a near-term move were also tempered after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further hikes would probably be needed but signalled no need to act at the October 27-28 meeting. The question left for investors, who remain unsettled by high volatility for rates, is whether an asset that's been dragged by soaring sovereign debt and hot inflation is capable of offering a cushion if equities start to take a bigger tumble.
投资者仍因利率波动剧烈而感到不安，他们面临的问题是：在主权债务飙升和通胀高企的背景下，某项资产是否能够在股市开始出现更大幅度下跌时提供缓冲。
Treasury yields posted their sharpest quarterly rise since 1994 in the July-September period.
7月至9月期间，国债收益率出现自1994年以来季度涨幅最大的上涨。
"Bond-equity correlation is definitely fracturing," said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney.
悉尼威尔逊资产管理公司（Wilson Asset Management）投资组合策略师Damien Boey表示：“股债相关性肯定正在破裂。”他补充道：“通常情况下，当债券收益率下降时，成长股表现较好，但昨天成长股表现不佳反而推动了对债券的避险需求，导致债券收益率下降。”本周早些时候，贝莱德投资研究所（BlackRock Investment Institute）因人工智能相关波动而将其对美国股票的评级下调至中性，并上调了对国债的评级，更倾向于短期票据。随着投资者对人工智能支出日益紧张，抛售行情已持续数日。
"Usually, growth stocks do well in particular when bond yields fall, but last night growth stocks doing badly drove a safe-haven bid for bonds and their yields lower." Earlier this week, BlackRock Investment Institute downgraded its view on US stocks to neutral, citing volatility around AI, and upgraded Treasuries, preferring short-term notes. The rout has been building for days as investors get increasingly nervous about AI spending. The selloff in global equities centred on AI stocks that have powered the markets to record highs in recent years.
全球股票的抛售集中在人工智能股票上，这些股票近年来推动市场创下历史新高。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI，.KS11）——作为人工智能繁荣的中心——下跌8%，将录得七连跌。
South Korea's KOSPI (.KS11), an epicentre of the AI boom, sank 8%, set for its seventh straight decline. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index (.SOX) dropped 4.3% on Wednesday, down for a sixth straight session, its longest losing streak since May 2025.
费城半导体指数（.SOX）周三下跌4.3%，已连续六个交易日下跌，这是自2025年5月以来的最长连跌纪录。
"Investors are separating AI companies with deep cash flows from those that need debt to build," said Kenneth Goh, UOB Kay Hian's director of private wealth management.
大华银行（UOB）旗下UOB Kay Hian私人财富管理部门主管Kenneth Goh表示：“投资者正在区分现金流雄厚的人工智能公司和需要债务来扩张的人工智能公司。”
"Private credit is where it could spread next," Goh said.
Goh还说：“私人信贷可能是下一个受影响的领域。向科技和创业公司提供贷款的上市贷款机构目前的交易价格已大幅低于其资产价值，而更为谨慎的贷款机构可能在任何违约出现之前就减缓人工智能的扩张步伐。”根据LSEG数据，本周的抛售在数据中心运营商CoreWeave（CRWV.O）尤为剧烈，该公司已发行220亿美元债券和260亿美元贷款。
"Listed lenders to tech and venture companies already trade at steep discounts to their asset values, and more cautious lenders can slow the AI build-out well before any defaults appear." Selling this week has been particularly intense in data centre operator CoreWeave (CRWV.O), which has issued $22 billion of bonds and $26 billion of loans, according to LSEG data.
“大部分支出来自企业通过借贷来获取计算资源，用于支持那些尚未盈利、无法支付相关费用的人工智能实验室，”Minotaur Capital的投资组合经理阿米娜·罗森伯格（Armina Rosenberg）说道。
"Much of the spending is by companies borrowing to rent computing power to AI labs that don't yet earn enough to cover the bill," said Armina Rosenberg, portfolio manager at Minotaur Capital.
“当 CoreWeave 的债券收益率为 15% 时，投资者们会质疑：这些产品的最终用户是否能在三到四年后仍有能力持续支付相关费用？”她补充道。
"When CoreWeave's bonds yield 15%, investors are asking whether the end customers will make enough money to keep paying in three or four years," she said.