越来越多的投资者试图防范人工智能行业可能出现的衰退风险，这导致与大型云计算服务商相关的信用违约互换成本不断攀升。
More investors are looking to hedge against a potential downturn in the AI boom, driving up the cost of credit default swaps tied to hyperscalers.
随着人们对开发人工智能所需巨额资金规模以及相关收入能否及时产生以支撑这一投入的担忧日益加剧，投资者纷纷抢购这类保险合约。
Investors are piling into the insurance contracts as anxiety grows over the huge amount of capital it will take to scale up artificial intelligence and how quickly the revenue will materialize to support it.
那些负债水平极高的云计算服务商所面临的保险成本涨幅最为显著。例如，云服务提供商CoreWeave的债务规模在过去一年里增长了两倍；而甲骨文公司的债务总额高达1600亿美元，信用评级也仅勉强维持在“垃圾级”边缘。
The cost of protection on hyperscalers that have taken on the most massive levels of debt is going up the most, including cloud provider CoreWeave, whose debt load has tripled over the past year, and Oracle, whose $160 billion debt load is teetering just above junk-rated status.
目前，为CoreWeave价值100万美元的债券购买违约保险的费用，已从一年前的每年不到4万美元上涨至如今的10万美元。本周，CoreWeave的债券价格大幅下跌，导致其债券收益率升至15%以上。该公司首席执行官在给员工的备忘录中称，市场表现“不合常理”。至于甲骨文公司，其违约保险成本在一周内上涨了12%，如今为100万美元的保单所需费用已达2.8万美元。投资者对该公司的担忧部分源于其在新墨西哥州建设的数据中心项目遭遇了诸多阻碍。
The cost to insure $1 million of CoreWeave’s bonds against the risk of a default has risen from under $40,000 a year ago for five years to $100,000 today. This week, CoreWeave bonds’ prices fell sharply, causing yields on the debt to top 15%. Its CEO sent a memo to employees saying the market was acting “irrationally.”The cost of hedging against an Oracle default has risen 12% in a week, with a $1 million policy now costing $28,000. Part of investors’ concern about the company is tied to a data-center project in New Mexico that Oracle is building that’s run into setbacks.
上个月，甲骨文公司告知包括Blue Owl在内的多家贷款机构：如果该数据中心无法按计划在2028年投入运营，公司将推迟支付相关租赁费用及其他财务义务。目前该项目已遭遇监管层面的阻碍以及当地居民的反对。即便如此，甲骨文仍需承担部分过渡性开支以及场地租金。
The company last month informed one of the lenders, including Blue Owl, that it would defer lease payments and other financial obligations tied to the deal if the datacenter fails to come online as planned in 2028. It has already faced regulatory snags and opposition on the ground. Oracle still has to pay some interim costs, as well as the rent for the space.
“存在衍生品市场。如果你想押注微软可能违约、不支付租金，你可以进入衍生品市场进行押注，”蓝猫头鹰首席执行官道格·奥斯特罗弗在最近一期《复利》节目中表示。“我们不这么做。但这对我们来说是可选的。”新的债务交易也面临困难。本周，伏尔塔基础设施的一笔交易受挫，因为投资者对数据中心债务已感饱和，要求更高收益。
“There’s a derivative market. If you want to make a bet that Microsoft could default and not pay their lease, you can go in the derivative market and do that,” Blue Owl CEO Doug Ostrover said on a recent episode of Compound Interest. “We don’t. But it’s available to us.”New debt deals are struggling, too. This week a deal for Volta Infrastructure faltered as investors feeling full-up on data center debt demanded higher yields.
信用违约互换是一种金融工程工具，允许投资者保护自己免受潜在违约影响，类似于支付保险保费。如果出现问题，互换将向买方提供赔偿。
Credit default swaps are a financial engineering tool that allows investors to protect themselves against potential defaults, similar to paying a premium on an insurance policy. Should something go awry, the swap would compensate the buyer.
过去一年，公司为快速构建支撑人工智能热潮所需的基础设施和算力，发行了创纪录数量的债务。随着利率上升，投资者对愿意贷款的对象变得更加挑剔，近几个月来这种发行已放缓。
Record amounts of debt have been issued over the last year as companies look to rapidly build the infrastructure and compute capacity needed to power the AI boom. That issuance has slowed in recent months, as interest rates are rising and as investors get more selective about who they’re willing to lend to.