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投资者为何看涨Anthropic——尽管存在一些重大风险Why investors are bullish on Anthropic — despite some big risks

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科技投资者对 Anthropic 的 S-1 公开募股文件表现出谨慎乐观,尽管对 AI 的未来前景和技术风险仍存持续担忧。Anthropic 披露,其营收增速从第二季度到第三季度出现大幅放缓,但投资者对该公司核心财务指标反应积极,其中包括截至 6 月 30 日止六个月内 10% 的经调整运营利润率。

Tech investors sound cautiously optimistic about Anthropic's S-1 public offering document , despite persistent concerns about the future of AI and dangers of the technology. Anthropic reported a substantial deceleration in revenue growth from the second to third quarter, yet investors reacted positively to the company's core financials, featuring an adjusted operating margin of 10% for the six months ended June 30.

“我不算被惊艳到,但我感到欣慰的惊喜——至少是适度的欣慰惊喜,”Freedom Capital Markets 技术研究主管 Paul Meeks 告诉 CNBC。即使计入会侵蚀利润率的股份薪酬,Anthropic 的净亏损也“非常小”,DA Davidson 技术研究主管 Gil Luria 表示。“这非常重要,”他补充道。“反 AI 阵营将 [Anthropic] 描述为每一次……AI 查询都在毁灭价值的企业,这根本不是事实。”

"I was not wowed by that, but I was pleasantly surprised – or at least modestly pleasantly surprised," Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC. Even including stock-based compensation, which takes a bite out of margins, Anthropic's net losses are "very small," Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, said. "That's very important," he added. "The anti-AI movement has described [Anthropic] as a business that destroys value with every … AI query, and that's just not true," he said.

Anthropic 今年上半年净亏损 807 亿美元,其中包括因可转换债务非现金会计规则导致的 724 亿美元亏损。公司将该亏损归因于“可转换票据、衍生负债及未来股权简易协议的公允价值变动”。该公司尚未实现全年盈利,不过这对早期科技企业而言属常态。

Anthropic's net loss for the first half of this year was $80.7 billion , including a $72.4 billion loss due to non-cash accounting rules around convertible debt. The firm cited a "change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and simple agreements for future equity" for the loss. The company has not yet had a year in the black, though that's common for early-stage tech firms.

Anthropic 计划在开放权重模型竞争加剧、AI 商品化步伐加快引发担忧之际上市。公司在文件中列出了一长串风险因素,并警告称:“我们未来可能无法实现或维持盈利。”一个主要未知数是 Anthropic 的“运行率营收”,该公司在 S-1 中将其留空。

Anthropic aims to go public amid rising worries about the rapid pace of AI's commodification amid competition from open weight models. The company outlined a long list of risks in its filing and warned, "We may not achieve or sustain profitability in the future." One major unknown is Anthropic's "run-rate revenue," which it left blank in the S-1.

据8月报道,Anthropic的运行率收入约为650亿美元,尽管该公司在文件中表示,该数字“并非收入的替代指标”,也“并非未来收入的预测”。不过,Luria指出,该公司手头拥有1124亿美元现金,外加193亿美元各类证券,这是一个积极信号。NVDA 5D mountain NVDA 5 day 科技板块周一上午普遍上涨,截至美东时间中午12点,Nvidia、Broadcom、Micron和AMD均上涨逾2%。

Run-rate revenues for Anthropic were reported in August around $65 billion, though the company said in the filing that the figure "is not a substitute for revenue" and "is not a forecast of future revenue." Luria, however, noted the company's cash on hand totaling $112.4 billion plus $19.3 billion held in various types of securities as a positive. NVDA 5D mountain NVDA 5 day The tech sector was largely in the green on Monday morning, with Nvidia , Broadcom , Micron and AMD all up more than 2% as of 12 p.m. ET.

Anthropic的公开发行文件还提示了一个风险:该公司是一家公益公司。这意味着,最大化利润和股东价值——根据某些规范性经济学派别的观点,这是公司的唯一关注点——并非该公司的唯一优先事项。“作为一家公益公司,我们必须在股东的金钱利益、受我们行为实质性影响者的最佳利益,以及我们修订后的公司章程中确定的特定公益目的之间取得平衡:为人类的长远利益负责任地开发和维护先进AI,”S-1文件称。

The risks Anthropic's public offering document also flags the fact that the company is structured as a public benefits corporation. This means that maximizing profits and shareholder value – which is the sole concern of corporations according to some prescriptive schools of economic thought – is not the company's only priority. "As a public benefit corporation, we are required to balance the pecuniary interests of our stockholders, the best interests of those materially affected by our conduct, and the specific public benefit purpose identified in our amended and restated certificate of incorporation: the responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity," the S-1 says.

考虑到其技术的力量,以及该技术将以何种尚未可知的方式发展和实施,投资者应做好准备,未来可能面临低于预期的回报和非典型的企业行为。

Investors should be prepared for the possibility of lower-than-expected returns and atypical corporate behaviors from Anthropic over the longer term, given the powers of its technology and the as-yet unknown ways in which it will develop and be implemented.

“他们在描述什么是公益公司,也就是说,‘我们不是为了最大化股东价值而存在的,’”Luria说。“这很不寻常。”

"They're describing what it means to be a public benefits corporation, which is to say, 'We're not here to maximize shareholder value,' " Luria said. "That's unusual."

受Anthropic提交文件提振,AI股票获得上涨动力,这为11月中下旬的投资者路演和公开发行奠定了基础。Luria特别指出,超大规模云服务商Amazon和Alphabet,以及芯片制造商Broadcom,将是Anthropic IPO的关键受益者。

AI stocks are getting a bump from Anthropic's filing, which sets the stage for an investor roadshow and public offering in mid-to-late November. Luria singled out hyperscalers Amazon and Alphabet along with chipmaker Broadcom as key beneficiaries of Anthropic's IPO.

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