随着 Anthropic 争取上市，AI 交易正显现裂痕，且并非仅限于边缘参与者。
As Anthropic rushes to takes its shares public, the AI trade is showing cracks, and they are not confined to fringe players.
我们近期曾撰文提及 CoreWeave，该公司股价于 10 月 14 日下跌 15.5%，其 2032 年到期债券收益率触及 15%，10 月信用违约互换价差近乎翻倍。IREN 年内跌幅超过 20%。上周四，传染效应波及芯片制造商，这合情合理，因为 CRWV 和 IREN 的大部分支出都流向了那里。AMD 下跌 8.1%，Meta 的融资计划以及 Lam Research 的供应预警加剧了数据中心对 AI 支出步伐的担忧。那么为何要看涨？
We recently wrote about CoreWeave, which fell 15.5% on Oct. 14 as yields on its 2032 notes touched 15%, and its default-swap spreads nearly doubled in October. IREN is down more than 20% this year. Last Thursday, the contagion reached chipmakers, which makes sense since much of CRWV and IREN's spending is going there. AMD dropped 8.1% as Meta's financing plans and a supply warning from Lam Research exacerbated data-center fears about the pace of AI spending. So why be bullish?
因为当你筛选那些经证实能长期产生超额收益的因素时，候选名单会迅速缩减。我的筛选标准：股价高于 200 日移动平均线；营收增速至少与标普 500 指数持平（年化 5% 以上）；每股收益（EPS）增速至少持平（年化 7% 以上）；评级上调；市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG）低于 3；净资产收益率（ROE）和投入资本回报率（ROIC）均至少 12%。
Because when you screen for factors that demonstrably generate outperformance over time, the list narrows quickly. My screen: price above the 200-day moving average; revenue growing at least as fast as the S&P 500 (5%+ per annum); EPS growing at least as fast (7%+); rating upgrades; a PEG below 3; and ROE and ROIC of at least 12%.
在未来两周将发布财报的公司中，AMD 实际上是唯一符合条件的标的。是的，你可以（也可以说应该，正如我们主力股文章所述）让投资组合的科技敞口略低于宽基指数，但我们不能完全忽视市场上最大且最具变革性的板块。
Of the names reporting in the next two weeks, AMD is effectively the only one that makes the list. Yes, you can (and arguably should, as our staples article described) position your portfolio with slightly less tech exposure than the broad indices provide, but we can't ignore the market's biggest and most transformative sector entirely.
特别是因为此处的增长不仅符合我的标准，更是大幅超越。市场共识预期第三季度 EPS 为 1.94 美元，营收为 130.6 亿美元，而去年同期分别为 1.20 美元和 92.5 亿美元。同比增幅分别接近 62% 和 41%。近期回调源于板块性抛售，而非 AMD 自身财报表现，但这表明，如果该领域部分标的受挫，即便是龙头企业也难独善其身。10 月 6 日，Lisa Su 表示，因 AI 订单持续超出产能，AMD 将在 2027 年大幅增加供应。
Especially because the growth in this case doesn't just meet my criteria; it blows past them. Consensus for Q3 calls for EPS of $1.94 on revenue of $13.06 billion, versus $1.20 and $9.25 billion a year ago. That's YoY growth of nearly 62% and 41%, respectively. The recent drawdown came from a sector selloff, not anything AMD reported, but it shows that if some names in the space get hit, even the larger players are likely to feel it. On Oct. 6, Lisa Su said AMD would substantially increase supply in 2027 because AI orders keep outrunning capacity.
那么，如何在已知行之有效的因子与 AI 交易出现裂痕的背景之间取得平衡？期权。
So how do you balance factors we know work for a fast-growing company against a backdrop of cracks in the AI trade? Options.
交易 直接持有股票意味着承受约9%至11%的与财报相关的隐含波动（当天）。财报大约一周后公布，过去四个季度中，类似时间窗口内的最小波动超过9%，最大波动则在公司公布2026财年第一季度业绩后达到38%！当然，这种波动意味着期权并不便宜，高昂的期权费也是不直接买入看涨期权的原因之一。
The trade Owning the stock outright means absorbing a roughly 9% to 11% implied earnings-related move (day of). Earnings are about a week out, and over the past four quarters the smallest move over a similar window was more than 9%, and the largest move, after the company reported its Q1 26 results, was 38%! Of course, that kind of volatility means options aren't cheap, and that rich premium is also a reason not to simply buy calls.
看涨期权价差风险反转既能完成这两项工作：当价差扩大时降低风险，而卖出的期权则抵消了我们原本要支付的高波动率。下方图表显示，通过牺牲约1700美元的上行空间，在出现严重下行走势时获得5000美元的超额收益，考虑到这笔交易近期波动剧烈，这是一种以显著降低的风险继续持有的方式。具体来说，就是少5000美元。
A call spread risk reversal does both jobs: it reduces risk if the cracks widen, and the short options offset the elevated volatility we would otherwise pay for. The bottom chart shows that, by sacrificing about $1,700 of upside for $5,000 in outperformance during a severe downside move, and given how jittery this trade has been lately, this is a way to stay in it with considerably less risk. $5,000 less, specifically.
当然，卖出该头寸会占用部分资金，但比直接买入股票要少。同时卖出看跌期权和看涨期权，可使买入看涨期权的成本降低66%。披露：Tidal拥有/持有文中提及的所有证券。
Of course, selling that out will tie up some cash, but less so than simply buying the stock. And selling both the out and the call reduces long call purchase by 66% Disclosures: Tidal owns/holds all the securities mentioned in the article.
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此内容仅供参考，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议，也不构成购买任何证券或其他金融资产的推荐。内容性质一般，不反映任何个人的独特个人情况。上述内容可能不适合您的特定情况。在做出任何财务决定之前，您应强烈考虑寻求您自己的财务或投资顾问的建议。
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