纽约，11月2日——美国人工智能与科技股大幅下跌，正在考验投资者转向其他股票领域的热情，而正是这种轮动在过去几周支撑了更广泛的指数。
YORK, Nov 2 - A steep decline in the prices of US AI and technology stocks is testing investors' enthusiasm to shift into other equity areas, a rotation that has propped up broader indexes in recent weeks.
Alphabet、亚马逊和英特尔令人失望的业绩给AI交易带来最新打击。投资者担心为巨额投资支出所需的庞大融资。他们也开始质疑回报是否足够强劲以证明这些支出合理。
Disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel dealt the latest blow to the AI trade. Investors worry about the hefty financing needed to fund massive investment spending. They are also starting to question whether returns will be robust enough to justify that spending.
10月份，大盘的表现远好于科技和AI相关股票，但大盘可能无法承受AI庞大交易更严重的回调。仅科技板块就占标普500指数38%的权重。
The broader market in October held up far better than tech- and AI-exposed equities did, but it may not be able to endure a more severe pullback in the massive AI trade. The tech sector alone accounts for a 38% weight in the S&P 500.
投资者对抛售将蔓延的迹象保持警惕。主要的警报将是AI超大规模企业大幅缩减支出计划的迹象。它们在数据中心和其他基础设施上的投资一直是整体经济增长的关键驱动力。
Investors are wary of signs that the selling will spread. A main alarm would be indications that the AI hyperscalers pull back significantly on spending plans. Their investment in data centers and other infrastructure has been a key driver for overall economic growth.
“你可以有一个月出现领导地位的重大转变，科技股疲软，其他一切相对强劲，”Nationwide首席市场策略师马克·哈克特说。然而，“如果再来一个月（大幅）下跌……它的规模如此之大，从数学上讲很难，但我认为更重要的是，从心理上讲很难。”周五的走势说明了这种担忧。科技板块当日暴跌4.2%，其中包括英特尔近29%的暴跌，拖累标普500指数下跌1.8%。
"You can have a month of a significant shift in leadership and tech weakness and relative strength in everything else," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for Nationwide. However, "if you have another month of (a steep) drop ... it's so big that mathematically it's difficult, but I think even more importantly, psychologically it's difficult." Friday's action illustrated such worries. A whopping 4.2% drop on the day for the tech sector, which included a nearly 29% tumble for Intel, drove a 1.8% decline for the S&P 500.
10月份，标普500科技板块下滑6.8%，为2025年3月以来最大月度跌幅。然而，标普500指数11个板块中有9个在10月份上涨——使该基准指数月末跌幅不到1%。
For October, the S&P 500 tech sector slid 6.8%, its biggest monthly drop since March 2025. Yet nine of the S&P 500's 11 sectors gained in October — allowing the benchmark index to end with a monthly decline of less than 1%.
人工智能与其余板块之间的轮动 标普500指数在2026年迄今已上涨超过10%。然而，板块轮动过去一年来一直是市场的主题。市场领导地位往往在重量级科技股与人工智能股票、以及更广泛的各个行业之间摇摆不定。
ROTATIONS BETWEEN AI AND EVERYTHING ELSE The S&P 500 is up more than 10% so far in 2026. Yet rotations have been a theme for the past year. Leadership has often vacillated between heavyweight tech and AI stocks on one hand, and a broader group of sectors on the other.
例如，9月的趋势与10月截然相反，科技股和人工智能股票在那个月占据主导地位。
September, for example, showed opposite trends to October, with dominance that month from tech and AI stocks.
爱德华琼斯公司的哈克特表示：“今年在指数层面的表现难以置信地稳定。但在水面之下却存在着如此巨大的波动。”10月的交易显示出了市场扩宽的迹象。尽管人工智能相关股票大幅下跌，但标普500指数成分股中仍有超过70%在当月实现上涨。代表中小盘股的指数在10月也有所上升。
"This year has been unbelievably stable at the index level," Hackett said. "But there's so much volatility beneath the surface." October trading indicated a sign of broadening. Despite sharp declines in AI names, more than 70% of S&P 500 constituents were up on the month. Indexes representing small- and mid-cap stocks also rose in October.
爱德华琼斯公司的高级全球投资策略师安杰洛·库尔卡法斯表示：“企业和消费者的基本面依然健康。在此背景下，投资者希望保持股票敞口。但现在他们希望降低人工智能集中度风险，并正在增持能提供差异化回报来源的领域。”
"Both corporate and consumer fundamentals remain healthy," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. "In this backdrop, investors want to maintain equity exposure. But now they want to reduce AI concentration risk and are adding to areas that offer differentiated sources of return."
人工智能支出成为更广泛影响的焦点 如果人工智能主题出现更严重的动摇，这种保持股票敞口的愿望在短期内可能会受到挑战。
AI SPENDING IN FOCUS FOR BROADER FALLOUT That desire to maintain equity exposure could be challenged in the near term, if the AI theme falters more severely.
人工智能投资支出不仅推动了半导体及参与建设数据中心企业的利润，也是整个美国经济增长的核心。
AI investment spending has not only driven profits for semiconductors and companies involved in building data centers, it has also been central to overall US economic growth.
库尔卡法斯表示，如果大型科技公司“开始削减资本支出——这些支出支撑了经济增长，并提振了经济许多不同领域的盈利——这可能会在引发更广泛的风险厌恶情绪方面产生更大的影响”。
If big tech companies "start pulling back on capex, which has supported economic growth, it has boosted earnings across many different areas of the economy — that can be something that may be more impactful in terms of driving a broader risk-off sentiment," Kourkafas said.
牛津经济研究院估计，近期美国经济增长中约有三分之一源自人工智能。这包括支持人工智能基础设施扩展的直接投资的净影响，以及股市上涨所带来的财富效应（提升了消费者支出）所产生的一部分贡献。
Oxford Economics estimates that about one-third of recent US economic growth stems from AI. That includes the net impact of direct investment to support expansion of AI infrastructure as well as some contribution from the wealth effect from stock market gains that has lifted consumer spending.
“消费者状况良好，但消费者并非经济表现良好的原因。经济表现良好是因为人工智能（AI）。”退休和财富服务提供商Empower的首席投资策略师玛塔·诺顿表示。“所以如果你开始以真正有意义的方式从AI下面抽走地毯，我认为这会改变市场的动态。”与此同时，市场走势可能开始引发更广泛的担忧。标普500指数周五收盘跌破其100日移动平均线——一条中期趋势线——这是自4月以来的首次。
"The consumer is fine, but the consumer isn't the reason the economy looks good. The economy looks good because of AI," said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services provider Empower. "So you start pulling the rug out from under AI in an actual meaningful way, I think that changes the dynamics for the markets." Meanwhile, the market action could start to cause broader worry. The S&P 500 on Friday closed below its 100-day moving average — a medium-term trendline — for the first time since April.
虽然该指数在过去两年里曾多次在这条趋势线上获得支撑反弹，但“每当它以任何实质性方式跌破……随后几周都会出现大幅进一步下跌，”米勒塔巴克首席市场策略师马修·马利表示。
While the index has bounced off that trendline several times in the past two years, "when it has broken below ... in any material way, it was followed by a much further drop over the following weeks," said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak.
“如果主要股指开始以更具说服力的方式下跌，投资者极有可能停止轮动进其他板块……转而轮动进现金，”马利在周五的一份报告中表示。
"If the major averages begin to drop in a more compelling manner, it is very likely that investors will stop rotating into other sectors ... and start rotating into cash," Maley said in a note on Friday.