CNBC主持人吉姆·克拉默周一警告称，一波大规模首次公开募股（IPO）和融资浪潮可能威胁牛市。
CNBC's Jim Cramer warned Monday that a wave of massive initial public offerings and capital raises could threaten the bull market.
Claude背后的公司Anthropic周一提交了IPO招股说明书，让华尔街最受期待的公开上市之一更进一步。投资者长期期待AI龙头Anthropic和OpenAI上市，但克拉默表示，它们潜在的巨额融资需求可能会给本已拥挤的市场带来压力。今年以来IPO已募集1480亿美元，他担心新股涌入可能超过投资者需求，从而使反弹行情脱轨。
Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed its IPO prospectus Monday, moving one of Wall Street's most anticipated public debuts a step closer. Investors have long awaited public offerings from AI leaders Anthropic and OpenAI, but Cramer said that their potentially massive fundraising needs could strain an already crowded market. With $148 billion raised through IPOs so far this year, he fears the influx of new shares could outstrip investor demand and derail the rally.
“政治能削弱牛市，高利率能扼杀牛市，但如果你想彻底终结它，就用IPO这把长矛，一次又一次地刺它，”《疯钱》节目主持人说。“它只会越来越弱，直到弱到连一个糟糕的财报、一次加息、一场保证金银行挤兑就能轻易将其屠杀。”克拉默强调，他的担忧并非针对AI本身的生存能力。与2000年互联网泡沫破裂时那些投机性网络初创公司不同，如今许多领先科技公司拥有成熟业务，其产品有真实需求。
"Politics can weaken the bull, higher rates can choke it, but if you want to slay the darn thing, use the IPO lance and stab it again and again," the "Mad Money" host said. "It just gets weaker and weaker until it is weak enough to be slaughtered with the ease of a bad quarter, a rate hike and a run on the margin bank." Cramer emphasized that his concerns aren't about the viability of AI itself. Unlike the speculative internet startups that collapsed during the dot-com bust in 2000, many of today's leading technology companies have established businesses and genuine demand for their products. "This time around the companies are real.
“这一次公司是真实的。它们往往赚大钱。我们在这一刻之前信任它们，在这一刻之后也会信任，”他说。
They tend to make big money. We trusted them before this moment. We will trust them after," he said.
但克拉默看到两个时期有一个令人担忧的相似之处：筹集的巨额资金。在互联网繁荣时期，大量股票发行最终耗尽了投资者的购买力，导致市场崩盘。供给超过了投资者需求。
But Cramer sees one troubling similarity between the two periods: the enormous amount of capital being raised. During the dot-com boom, a flood of stock offerings eventually exhausted investors' buying power, contributing to the market's collapse. Supply outpaced investor demand.
他担心，随着包括 Meta、Alphabet、SpaceX 和 Oracle 在内的公司纷纷进入资本市场融资，可能会出现类似的局面。克拉默警告称，这些大规模融资行动可能会吸走本可能流入标普 500 指数及其他股票的投资者资金，即便企业基本面依然强劲，也会给大盘带来压力。克拉默的慈善信托基金——即 CNBC 投资俱乐部所管理的投资组合——持有 Meta 和 Alphabet 的股份。“我认为债券市场和股票市场的资金都快枯竭了，”他说。
He fears a similar dynamic could emerge as companies including Meta, Alphabet, SpaceX and Oracle tap capital markets. Cramer warned that these massive fundraising efforts could absorb investor dollars that might otherwise flow into the S&P 500 and other stocks, putting pressure on the broader market even as corporate fundamentals remain strong. Cramer's Charitable Trust, the portfolio run by CNBC's Investing Club, owns shares of Meta and Alphabet. "I think both the debt and the equity markets are running out of money," he said. That means the market could run out of the money companies need to finance their ambitions before investors see the payoff. "I am not calling a top," he said. "I am just saying that I do not like what I see."
这意味着，在投资者看到回报之前，市场可能就已耗尽企业为实现雄心所需的资金。“我不是在判断见顶，”他说，“我只是说我不喜欢我看到的情况。”
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