华尔街近期对股票的风险厌恶情绪可能为剧烈反弹创造了契机，尤其是科技股，如果Anthropic PBC计划中的首次公开募股（IPO）重燃人们对人工智能的热情。
Street’s recent risk aversion toward stocks may have created an opening for a sharp rebound, particularly in technology shares, if Anthropic PBC’s planned initial public offering reignites enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
据德意志银行称，投资者已将其股票敞口降至大体符合历史常态的水平。主动型投资者将其美国股票敞口削减至一个多月来的最低水平，而采用计算机驱动交易策略的基金也已缩减仓位。这为信心回归时的重新买入留出了空间。
Investors have reduced their equities exposure to levels broadly in line with historical norms, according to Deutsche Bank. Discretionary investors have cut their exposure to US equities to the lowest in more than a month, while funds that use computer-driven trading strategies have also scaled back. That leaves room for renewed buying if confidence returns.
对冲基金走得更远，越来越多地押注股市下跌。高盛集团表示，其对冲基金客户本月每买入1美元股票，就卖空了约5美元股票。根据该公司记录，对冲基金利用借贷资金做空股票的规模现已接近五年来的最高水平。
Hedge funds have gone further, increasingly betting that stocks will fall. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says its hedge fund clients have sold short roughly $5 worth of stocks for every $1 in purchases this month. Hedge funds’ use of borrowed money to bet against stocks is now near its highest level in five years, according to the firm’s records.
如果股市起飞，这些押注可能助推反弹，迫使押注下跌的投资者买入股票以平仓。
Those bets could help fuel a rally if stocks take off, forcing investors who wagered on declines to buy shares to close out their positions.
科技股受创尤重，根据高盛记录，截至10月16日，科技股经历了十多年来最严重的两周净卖出。德意志银行称，自10月初以来，投资者大幅削减科技股持仓，将其降至六个月低点，接近伊朗战争期间的水平。
Technology stocks have been hit especially hard, seeing their heaviest two weeks of net selling in more than a decade of Goldman records through Oct. 16. Deutsche Bank says investors have sharply reduced their technology holdings since early October, bringing them to a six-month low near levels seen during the Iran war.
随着投资者情绪在充满挑战的宏观背景下恶化，纳斯达克100指数自10月6日以来已下跌4.5%。随着伊朗战争持续，布伦特原油上涨，加剧了对通胀升高和利率维持高位的担忧。同时，对人工智能投资热潮可持续性的担忧也在加剧。云计算服务商CoreWeave的言论凸显了随着利率上升，以债务融资建设人工智能基础设施的风险。
The Nasdaq 100 Index has fallen 4.5% since Oct. 6 as investor sentiment deteriorated amid a challenging macro backdrop. Brent crude climbed as the war in Iran continued, fueling worries over higher inflation and elevated interest rates. At the same time, concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment boom have intensified. Comments from cloud-computing provider CoreWeave highlighted the risks of financing AI infrastructure with debt, particularly as interest rates rise.
这种回撤可能会使科技股对情绪变化特别敏感。Anthropic 若能成功首次公开募股（IPO），可能会重燃对 AI 的热情，并鼓励投资者重返该板块。
That retreat could make technology shares particularly sensitive to a change in sentiment. A successful Anthropic IPO could renew excitement about AI and encourage investors to return to the sector.
“投资者一直在重新配置投资组合，因为科技和半导体的领涨地位受到挑战，且我们已接近投资者只需确信 AI 故事仍在正轨上的水平，” Integrity Asset Management 投资组合经理 Joe Gilbert 表示。“Anthropic 的 IPO 将在我们度过财报季后成为市场的关键考验。这类似于 SpaceX 的 IPO，投资者将寻求接触一只独一无二的独角兽股票——至少在 OpenAI 上市之前——我们认为需求将会强劲。”
“Investors have been repositioning portfolios as tech and semi leadership has been challenged and we have approached levels where investors just need reassurance that the AI story is still on track,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management. “The Anthropic IPO will be a critical test for markets once we get past earnings. Similar to the SpaceX IPO, investors will be looking for exposure to a unicorn stock that is one of one — at least until OpenAI comes public — and we believe the demand will be strong.”
散户投资者也可能有助于推动反弹。从 8 月下旬到 10 月初，散户投资者买入看涨期权的比率异常高于买入看跌期权的比率。过去两周这种活动有所放缓，尽管仍高于平均水平，表明投资者可能有更强的买入意愿。
Individual investors could also help drive a rebound. From late August to early October, retail investors were buying options betting on stock gains at an unusually high rate compared with those betting on declines. That activity has slowed over the past two weeks, although it remains above average, suggesting investors may have more appetite for buying.
“我们认为这显示散户投资者增加 AI 交易仓位的空间更大，” 投资公司 Carrick Lane 合伙人 John Marshall 写道。
“We believe this shows more room for retail investors to add to the AI trade,” John Marshall, a partner at investment firm Carrick Lane, wrote.
SpaceX 的股市首秀提供了一个主要 IPO 如何吸引散户投资者的例证。6 月 12 日周五，即该公司上市当天，散户投资者买入美国股票的净额达到 Citadel Securities 平台单日有记录以来的最大值。该公司处理美国上市股票散户交易量的约 35%。股票和期权交易均激增。
SpaceX’s stock market debut offers an example of how a major IPO can attract individual investors. On Friday, June 12, the day the company went public, those investors bought more US stocks than they sold by the largest amount recorded in a single day on Citadel Securities’ platform. The firm handles about 35% of US-listed stock trading by individual investors. Trading in both stocks and options surged.
“散户参与度呈天文数字般巨大，” Citadel Securities 股票及股票衍生品策略主管 Scott Rubner 表示。
“There was astronomically large retail participation,” said Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities.
尽管如此，并非所有投资者都在撤退，长线基金的“干粉”可能正在耗尽。巴克莱数据显示，虽然对冲基金已减少对股价上涨的押注，但传统投资基金持续买入美国股票。
Still, not all investors have been pulling back and dry powder my be running short at long-only funds. Barclays data show that while hedge funds have reduced their bets on rising stock prices, traditional investment funds have continued buying US equities.
据巴克莱的斯特凡诺·帕斯卡尔称，今年以来投资者向美国股票基金注资约3400亿美元，是通常在此时投入的约1000亿美元的三倍多。主动选股基金的现金持仓现已降至资产的1%以下，表明它们已投入了大部分可用资金。
Investors have poured about $340 billion into US stock funds this year, more than three times the roughly $100 billion typically invested by this point, according to Barclays’ Stefano Pascale. Funds that actively pick stocks now hold less than 1% of their assets in cash, suggesting they have already invested much of the money available to them.
即使对人工智能的热情回升，这也可能限制这些投资者进一步买入的规模。
That could limit how much additional buying comes from those investors, even if enthusiasm for AI returns.