根据一些投资者和分析师的说法，Anthropic PBC第三季度的业绩可能会加强其预期首次公开募股的论据，尽管这些业绩不太可能消除人们对全球AI贸易的疑虑。
Anthropic PBC’s third-quarter results may strengthen the case for its expected initial public offering, though they are unlikely to dispel doubts over the global AI trade, according to some investors and analysts.
作者：Abhishek Vishnoi 根据知情人士透露，该公司本季度收入达168亿美元，实现了正向自由现金流，调整后毛利率为85%，这表明其人工智能投资开始见效。该公司预计将在今年年底前完成首次公开募股。
By Abhishek Vishnoi The company generated $16.8 billion in quarterly revenue and positive free cash flow, with an adjusted gross margin of 85%, according to people familiar with the matter, providing evidence that its artificial intelligence investments are starting to pay off. The firm is expected to make its debut no later than the end of the year.
这些业绩发布之际，全球AI股票正面临着国债收益率上升、油价推动的通胀以及围绕CoreWeave Inc.等公司的融资担忧等压力。虽然Anthropic的收入凸显了AI的底层需求，但市场参与者表示，这可能不足以重振投资者对更广泛AI板块的热情，因为芯片制造商和基础设施供应商正因变现放缓的迹象而承压。以下是一些市场参与者对Anthropic业绩的看法。
The results come as global AI stocks struggle with rising bond yields, oil-driven inflation and funding concerns surrounding companies such as CoreWeave Inc. While Anthropic’s revenue underscores underlying AI demand, market participants say it may not be enough to revive investor enthusiasm in the broader trade, with signs of slowing monetization weighing on chipmakers and infrastructure suppliers. Here’s what some market participants are saying about Anthropic’s results.
Vantage Global Prime 高级市场分析师 Hebe Chen 表示：“Anthropic 的最新数据提供了首批确凿证据之一，表明 AI 热潮正将爆炸性增长转化为芯片制造商之外的真实盈利能力。”
Hebe Chen, a senior market analyst at Vantage Global Prime“Anthropic’s latest numbers offer one of the first tangible confirmations that the AI boom is turning explosive growth into real profitability beyond the chipmakers”
“市场并未因 Anthropic 的亮眼数据而失望，反而日益担忧维持这种增长的副作用。”
“The market isn’t disappointed by Anthropic’s impressive numbers — it’s increasingly concerned about the side effects of sustaining that growth”
“报告发布的时间进一步凸显了这些担忧，因为投资者正质疑在已经紧张的流动性环境中，AI 将消耗多少更多资本，包括通过 Anthropic 即将进行的 IPO。”
“The timing of the report is sharpening those concerns, as investors question how much more capital AI will consume, including through Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, in an already liquidity-squeezed market”
在通胀顽固且借贷成本居高不下的情况下，真正的担忧不在于盈利能力本身，而在于维持盈利能力的成本日益高涨。
Union Bancaire Privee 董事总经理 Vey-Sern Ling 表示：“像 Anthropic 这样的实验室 monetization 放缓可能会动摇 AI 投资主题。增长可能会因基数扩大和竞争加剧而在一段时间内放缓。”
With stubborn inflation keeping borrowing costs elevated, the real concern is not profitability itself, but the increasingly expensive price of keeping it sustainable Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee“Slowing monetization at labs like Anthropic can break the AI investment theme. The likelihood is growth will slow over time due to larger base, competition”
“如果数据不够强劲，IPO 本身可能没问题，但可能无法达到人们所期望的高估值。”
“更关键的是，鉴于市场目前神经质的状态，这种解读对半导体‘铲子和镐’概念股将产生非常负面的影响。”
The IPO will be fine, but it may not command as high a valuation as hoped if the numbers are not strong“More critically given how jittery the market is, the readthrough would be very negative for the semi picks and shovels”
Allspring Global Investments 投资组合经理 Gary Tan 表示：“第三季度环比增长仍然卓越，但与第二季度相比的放缓使焦点从头条收入转向收入质量、利润率，以及 Anthropic 的巨额算力承诺是否能产生足够回报。”
Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments“Third-quarter sequential growth remained exceptional, but the slowdown from the second quarter shifts the focus from headline revenue to revenue quality, margins and whether Anthropic’s massive compute commitments can generate adequate returns”
“这也提高了全球 AI 贸易的门槛，因为投资者越来越要求看到算力支出能够转化为可持续利润的证据。”
It also raises the bar for the global AI trade “as investors increasingly demand evidence that compute spending can translate into sustainable profits”
Floodlines Research 投资策略师兼创始人 Anna Wu 表示：“强劲的收入增长和正向自由现金流‘从基本面来看表明这是一家好公司。其一致性和可持续性仍将接受考验。’”“Anthropic 的数据在投资者眼中表现良好，我相当确定他们将通过 IPO。”
Anna Wu, an investment strategist and founder of Floodlines Research Strong revenue growth and positive free cash flow “suggest a good company from a fundamental perspective. The consistency and sustainability will still be tested”“Anthropic’s numbers are good in investors’ eyes, and I’m pretty sure they will to the IPO. What it won’t do is lift the entire sector the way it would have a year or two ago, because investors are now taking good news for granted” “Anthropic doing well helps CoreWeave’s demand, but it doesn’t solve the financing question,” with some of CoreWeave bonds yielding close to 15% as a sign of growing funding concerns Hui Ling Loh, managing director at ACG Management Pte.
它不会像一两年前那样提升整个行业，因为投资者现在把好消息视为理所当然。” “Anthropic 表现良好有助于提升 CoreWeave 的需求，但它并未解决融资问题，”一些 CoreWeave 债券的收益率接近 15%，这反映出融资担忧日益加剧。 Hui Ling Loh，ACG Management Pte. 董事总经理“尽管卖方认为 Anthropic 的数据看起来中性或尚可，但该行业正因多重行业逆风而被抛售，正如我们在 ASML 指引良好之后所看到的那样。杠杆公司的融资问题正受到质疑。”
“Despite sell side saying Anthropic’s numbers look neutral or OK, the sector is being sold off on multiple industry headwinds just like we saw after ASML’s guidance which was good. Funding is in question for levered companies”“With US AI stocks getting killed overnight, CoreWeave data center led worries and US inflation print, the hype in Anthropic is in serious doubt now”Charu Chanana, the chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets Anthropic’s revenue looks “really strong but that’s not enough for now. The market has moved from simply rewarding growth to asking much tougher questions about funding, cost of capital and returns on that spending”
“随着美国 AI 股票在隔夜暴跌，CoreWeave 数据中心引发担忧，以及美国通胀数据公布，Anthropic 的热度如今正受到严重质疑” Charu Chanana，Saxo Markets 首席投资策略师 Anthropic 的收入看起来“非常强劲，但目前还不够。市场已经从单纯奖励增长转向对融资、资本成本以及该支出的回报提出更严苛的问题” “对于 Anthropic 的 IPO，这些数据强化了增长故事，但估值仍将是最大的争议点” “如果估值超过 2 万亿美元，则大约相当于其 Q3 年化收入的 30 倍，而投资者还必须消化维持该增长所需的巨额基础设施承诺” 这些收入数据“可能会让投资者对 AI 机遇的规模感到安心，但它们无法消除存储下行周期的风险”
“For Anthropic’s IPO, these numbers strengthen the growth story, but valuation will still be the big debate”“A valuation above $2 trillion would be roughly 30 times annualized Q3 revenue, while investors will also have to digest the enormous infrastructure commitments required to sustain that growth”The revenue numbers “may reassure investors about the size of the AI opportunity, but they cannot remove the risk of a memory downcycle”