While the future is always uncertain, some market moments can feel sketchier than others. The wobble in the artificial intelligence trade reflects several near-term issues troubling investors, including elevated oil prices, rising interest rates, geopolitical anxiety and the imminent listing of AI behemoth Anthropic PBC. Some of these will get resolved sooner than others — but the latter will provide the acid test for sentiment.

The cancelation of a large initial public offering by data-center operator Firmus Grid Ltd. in Australia showed investors pushing back on high valuations sought by AI debutants. Confidence in the AI ecosystem was damaged further by last week’s reports that Anthropic, the company behind the Claude assistant, had shared disappointing revenue growth numbers with investors. AI news reverberates widely given the billions of dollars (largely originating as borrowed money) being spent on data centers and related infrastructure.

US 10-year rates broke through 5% in September; that undermines corporate valuations by diminishing future earnings measured in today’s money. The oil price jumped 10% earlier this month to touch its highest level since May amid escalating worries about the Iran war; that augurs inflationary pressure and rising costs for industry, in turn reinforcing expectations of higher borrowing costs.

Now throw in technical factors. Sharp moves in any asset class can wrongfoot hedge funds with leveraged exposure, forcing them to unwind positions and exacerbating downward momentum. A natural support mechanism during selloffs – share buybacks – wasn’t available given companies are typically precluded from repurchasing their own stock in the run-up to the quarterly earnings season currently underway. The tech giants that used to deploy cash on buybacks are now spending it on AI investment (although some of the beneficiaries, like Samsung Electronics Co., have picked up the baton).

Those technical complications may have now washed through, and higher rates in the bond market are becoming accepted as the new normal.

But obstacles remain for firms wanting to raise capital through new debt or stock sales. Three key issues are on the immediate horizon. First are the US midterm elections, dubbed a “clearing event” by financiers due to the perception that investors and executives are suspending major decisions ahead of the vote; gains by Democratic candidates could slow or even halt the buildout of the vast computer facilities. Second is the timing and scope of any peace deal between the US and Iran, which matters for the trajectory of oil prices and inflation. That’s hard to put into a financial model.

Finally, there’s the Anthropic IPO, which is expected to seek a $2 trillion valuation. The firm’s regulatory filings alone will be a key market event for those trying to figure out how much revenue AI software can generate. What matters most to investors right now is whether — or probably when — the current supply-demand imbalance in data centers will invert to oversupply, and how bad any resulting crunch will be. These are not tried and tested physical assets like a fleet of aircraft or chain of hotels; the recovery rates if tenants default on leases are anyone’s guess.

Then there’s the question of whether an Anthropic IPO is a flyer or a flop. Even for asset managers running non-technology portfolios, the success or failure of this deal will reverberate. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the last record-breaking new issue, is still up on its June launch price and has outperformed the S&P 500. That sets a favorable backdrop. But whether investors make or lose money on Anthropic is likely to be a key driver of market sentiment.

Debt investors are becoming increasingly picky. The cost of buying insurance against defaults by companies in the AI sphere has spiked; and good luck getting fresh funds from bondholders who got bruised backing Skydance Corp.’s $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery takeover. There have been some tricky leveraged-buyout financings too, like Nestle SA’s water business that needed to hand out extra incentives to get over the line.

In the meantime, fund managers are understandably in capital-rationing mode. The IPO market is all but shut to potential newcomers that aren’t AI related. The private equity industry, typically a dominant source of new listings, has been struggling for some time to offload long-in-the-tooth buyouts.

Some of the questions currently weighing on the market will be resolved over time. But if Anthropic could just get on with its IPO, that would give everyone one less thing to worry about.