多年来，关于人工智能热潮最大的未解之谜之一出奇地简单：构建世界上最强大 AI 模型的公司，究竟能否真正赚到钱？在周一花费数小时研读 Anthropic 的 IPO 招股说明书后，我们终于有了答案：能。而且潜在利润巨大。几家中国 AI 实验室此前率先上市，披露了惨淡的财务业绩，令业界对该行业的经济模式产生怀疑。
For years, one of the biggest unanswered questions about the artificial intelligence boom has been surprisingly simple: Can the companies building the world's most powerful AI models actually make money? After spending hours poring over Anthropic's IPO filing on Monday, we finally have an answer: Yes. And potentially lots of it. A couple of Chinese AI labs went public earlier, revealing appalling financial results that sowed doubt about the industry's economics.
如今，Anthropic 提供了一个更有说服力的例证，证明这门生意可以在巨大规模下运作。这些数字令人瞩目。Anthropic 在 2026 年第二季度实现营收 116 亿美元，同比增长 1368%。同期，其算力与基础设施支出增长 300%，其他支出增长 741%。因此，该公司的营收增速远超其最关键成本的增速。2026 年第二季度，Anthropic 每在算力上花费 1 美元，便创造了 2.08 美元营收，而 2025 年第一季度这一数字仅为 40 美分。
Now Anthropic has provided a much more compelling demonstration of how this business can work at enormous scale. The numbers are remarkable. Anthropic generated $11.6 billion in revenue during the second quarter of 2026, up 1,368% from a year earlier. During that same period, its spending on computing and infrastructure increased 300%, while other expenses rose 741% So, the company is bringing in money much faster than its most important costs are rising. For every dollar Anthropic spent on computing in the second quarter, it generated $2.08 in revenue, up from just 40 cents in the first quarter of 2025.
仅五个季度，这一指标便实现了五倍以上的提升。结果是：Anthropic 录得季度经营利润 9.74 亿美元，经营利润率达 8%。其调整后经营利润率达到 19%，而一年前为 -129%。关于 Anthropic 的 S-1 文件 “前沿实验室的单位经济模型可在规模化时转正，” Evercore ISI 资深科技分析师 Mark Mahaney 周一在研报中写道。
That's a more than fivefold improvement over five quarters. The result: Anthropic recorded $974 million in quarterly operating profit, representing an 8% margin. Its adjusted operating profit margin reached 19%, compared with -129% a year earlier.about Anthropic's S-1 filing "Frontier-lab unit economics can turn positive at scale," Mark Mahaney, a top tech analyst at Evercore ISI, wrote in a research note on Monday.
还有更多证据表明，Anthropic 建立了一家异常高效的企业。截至 9 月 30 日的过去一年里，营收增长约 1200%，而员工人数仅增长约 170%。人均营收从 140 万美元跃升至 660 万美元以上。作为对比，Mahaney 估算 Meta 的人均年营收约为 320 万美元，Google 约为 250 万美元。这一对比并不完美。
There's more evidence that Anthropic has built an unusually efficient business. Over the year ending September 30, revenue increased roughly 1,200%, while its employee count grew about 170%. Revenue per employee jumped from $1.4 million to more than $6.6 million. For comparison, Mahaney estimated that Meta generates about $3.2 million in annual revenue per employee, while Google generates about $2.5 million. That comparison isn't perfect.
Anthropic 严重依赖云服务提供商，后者的员工负责处理大部分计算基础设施和分发工作。这种改善依然令人瞩目。另一个惊喜是：Anthropic 对少数超大客户的依赖程度并不像一些投资者担心的那样高。截至 9 月，该公司拥有超过 11,900 位年收入至少 10 万美元的客户，而一年前这一数字仅为 950 多位。有超过 1,900 位客户的年支出至少达 100 万美元。
Anthropic relies heavily on cloud providers, whose employees handle much of the computing infrastructure and distribution work. The improvement is still striking. Another surprise: Anthropic doesn't depend as much on a handful of enormous customers, as some investors had feared. The company had more than 11,900 customers generating at least $100,000 in annual revenue as of September, compared with over 950 a year earlier. More than 1,900 customers spend at least $1 million annually.
在 2026 年前九个月中，没有任何单一客户贡献的收入超过 10%。其前五大客户在第三季度收入中占比约 21%，低于第一季度的约 36%。“客户集中度可能比担心的要好，”Mahaney 写道。
No single customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue during the first nine months of 2026. Its five largest customers represented about 21% of third-quarter revenue, down from roughly 36% in the first quarter. "Concentration may be better than feared," Mahaney wrote.
Anthropic 拥有雄厚的财务垫。其 6 月 30 日的资产负债表显示，现金和短期投资超过 1300 亿美元。Mahaney 估计，自五年多前成立以来，公司仅烧掉了 90 亿美元。这是一条漫长的跑道。现在，别问我这一切是否让 Anthropic 值得 2 万亿美元、1.5 万亿美元、1 万亿美元，还是低得多。要是我知道，我早就作为投资者赚大钱了。即便是专业投资者也不知道。
Anthropic has a formidable financial cushion. Its June 30 balance sheet showed more than $130 billion in cash and short-term investments. And Mahaney estimated that the company has burned through just $9 billion since it started more than five years ago. That's a long runway. Now, don't ask me whether all this makes Anthropic worth $2 trillion, $1.5 trillion, $1 trillion, or considerably less. If I knew that, I'd be making a lot more money as an investor. And even professional investors don't know.
有一些巨大的警示：Anthropic 的大部分收入来自客户按使用量付费，而非长期合同。与此同时，其部分算力协议要求最低付款，无论其实际是否需要全部产能。Mahaney 估计，Anthropic 已签订近 8000 亿美元的算力安排，尽管截至 6 月仅有约 2660 亿美元为固定或担保金额。这仍是一个惊人的数字。“这些承诺假设了并未通过合同锁定的收入复合增长，”Mahaney 写道。也就是说：尽管公司已承诺在 AI 计算基础设施上花费数千亿美元，但尚未锁定支付所有这些费用所需的未来收入。
Some enormous caveats: Much of Anthropic's revenue comes from customers paying for what they use, rather thang long-term contracts. Meanwhile, some of its computing agreements require minimum payments whether or not it needs all the capacity. Mahaney estimates that Anthropic has entered into nearly $800 billion in computing arrangements, although only about $266 billion was fixed or guaranteed as of June. That's still a staggering amount. "The commitments assume revenue compounding that is not contracted," Mahaney wrote. Translation: While the company has committed to spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI computing infrastructure, it hasn't secured the future revenue needed to pay for all of it.
重要的是，潜在的8000亿美元风险敞口大部分并非固定不变。许多安排取决于产能的交付，可予调整，或包含取消条款。另一个变数是：Anthropic周一警告称，随着其转向租赁AI芯片并运营更多自有计算基础设施，而非完全依赖亚马逊、谷歌及其他云服务商，其支出将增加。即使经营利润持续改善，这也可能使未来的现金流吸引力大幅下降。
Importantly, most of the potential $800 billion exposure isn't fixed. Many arrangements depend on capacity being delivered, can be adjusted, or include cancellation provisions. Another wrinkle: Anthropic warned Monday that its spending will increase as it shifts toward leasing AI chips and operating more of its own computing infrastructure, rather than relying entirely on Amazon, Google, and other cloud providers. That could make future cash flow considerably less attractive, even if operating profits continue to improve.
尽管如此，Anthropic首次公开募股（IPO）申报文件传达的核心信息难以忽视。多年来，投资者一直在疑惑，销售AI能否成为一门真正盈利的生意，而非一项成本极高的科学实验。Anthropic现已证明它可以。下一个问题是，随着账单变得大得多、大得多，它能否继续保持盈利。点击此处。
Still, the central takeaway from Anthropic's IPO filing is difficult to ignore. For years, investors have wondered whether selling AI could become a genuinely profitable business, rather than an extraordinarily expensive scientific experiment. Anthropic has now shown that it can. The next question is whether it can keep doing so as the bills get much, much bigger. here. Reach out to me via email at abarr@businessinsider.com