
未来几周,公众投资者将有机会购买Anthropic的一部分股份。但普通投资者永远不会有机会左右这家AI巨头的决策:尽管Anthropic即将上市,它本质上仍将是一家私人公司,由少数拥有巨大权力的人控制。过去几十年推出的巨型科技公司并不少见(拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林有效控制着谷歌;马克·扎克伯格在Meta拥有同样的控制权,埃隆·马斯克在SpaceX也是如此。)
In the next few weeks, public investors will get their chance to buy a piece of Anthropic. But regular investors will never have a chance to steer the AI giant's decisions: Even though Anthropic is going public, it will essentially remain a private company, controlled by a handful of people with outsized power. That's not unusual for giant tech companies launched in the past few decades (Larry Page and Sergey Brin have effective control of Google; Mark Zuckerberg has the same at Meta, as does Elon Musk at SpaceX.)
一些知名媒体公司也存在这种情况(鲁珀特·默多克及其儿子拉克兰有效控制着他的两家上市公司;拉里·埃里森和大卫·埃里森在Skydance拥有同样的控制权。)Anthropic对这一理念的独特之处在于,控制权在两个不同的内部人群体之间分割。有一个由七位创始人组成的小团体,包括首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊和他的妹妹丹妮埃拉,他们控制着50.1%的股东投票权。
It's also something you see at some prominent media companies (Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan have effective control of his two public companies; Larry and David Ellison have the same at Skydance.) Anthropic's twist on the idea is that control is split between two different groups of insiders. There's a clique of seven founders, including CEO Dario Amodei and his sister, Daniela, who control 50.1% of shareholder voting power.
还有一个有权任命公司七名董事中的四名的信托。将这两者结合起来,你就得到了一套旨在让公众投资者无法参与真正决策的公司章程。创始人控制着任何股东投票的结果;信托控制着董事会。理论上,这两个群体在重大问题上可能会产生冲突。例如,信托任命的董事可能会投票用新首席执行官取代阿莫代伊。或者,创始人团体可能会否决董事会批准的出售。
And there's also a trust with the power to appoint four of the company's seven directors. Put those two together, and you get a corporate constitution designed to keep public investors outside the real decisions. The founders control the outcome of any shareholder vote; the trust controls the board. In theory, those two groups could end up in conflict on major issues. The trust-appointed directors might, say, vote to replace Amodei with a new CEO. Or the founder group could veto a sale approved by the board.
但实际上,这两个群体之间有大量重叠。首先,Anthropic创建并资助了该信托。Anthropic本身也表示,它已确保信托由与其高管看法一致的人员组成:“截至目前,受托人和公司高管在寻找、面试和甄选受托人方面一直密切合作,”该公司在其S-1申报文件中指出。
In reality, there's a lot of overlap between the two groups. For starters, Anthropic created and funds the trust. And Anthropic itself says it has made sure the trust is staffed with people who see the world the same way its executives do: "In practice to date, the Trustees and company executives have collaborated closely on sourcing, interviewing, and selecting Trustees," the company notes in its S-1 filing.
最大的启示是,个人股东,甚至持有大量Anthropic股权的机构股东,都无法迫使其向任何一方转变。从创始人的角度来看,这种安排的好处很明显:它们能让创始人和管理层免受那些可能只关注短期目标的投资者的影响。坏处是:这些结构也让创始人和管理层免受那些可能有充分理由希望公司改变的投资者的影响。这一趋势的一个很好的反例是Twitter,它于2013年上市时没有创始人控制权——这也是为什么埃隆·马斯克在将近十年后能够收购它。
The main takeaway is that there's no way for an individual shareholder, or even institutional shareholders who own significant chunks of Anthropic's equity, to force it to move one way or another. The upside of arrangements like this are pretty clear, from a founder's perspective: They insulate their founders and managers from investors who might only care about short-term goals. The downside: These structures insulate founders and managers from investors who might have very good reasons to want the company to change. A good counter-example to the trend is Twitter, which went public in 2013 without founder control — which is why Elon Musk was able to buy it nearly a decade later.
在Anthropic的案例中,这种不愿给公众投资者真正发言权的态度,与公司的创立理念直接同步——即它正在开发的人工智能如此重要且潜在危险,必须由那些关心的不仅仅是Anthropic股价的人来控制。对于许多渴望参与Anthropic首次公开募股的投资者来说,这种缺乏控制权——事先披露——并不重要。他们只希望自己的股份随时间增值。
In Anthropic's case, that aversion to giving public investors a real voice is synced directly to the company's founding thesis — that the AI it is developing is so consequential and potentially dangerous, that it must be controlled by people who care about more than Anthropic's share price. And for many investors clamoring to get in on Anthropic's IPO, that lack of control — disclosed up front — won't matter. They just want their shares to be worth more over time.
马斯克对SpaceX的铁腕控制并未削弱历史上最大规模首次公开募股的需求。但如果投资者想迫使Anthropic做阿莫迪兄弟及其联合创始人——或Anthropic设立的信托——不希望它做的事情,他们将无计可施。买者自负。
Musk's ironclad control of SpaceX didn't put dampen demand for the biggest IPO in history. But if investors ever want to force Anthropic to do something the Amodeis and their cofounders — or the Anthropic-created trust — don't want it to do, they'll be out of luck. Buyer beware.