铁矿石在需求前景疲软和年内供应上升的背景下跌至两年多来的最低水平。
Iron ore dropped to the lowest level in more than two years on a weaker demand outlook and rising supply through year-end.
新加坡基准期货跌幅最高达1.4%，至每吨89.25美元，为自2024年9月以来的最低盘中水平。大连商品交易所的价格同样处于两年低点。中国正进入钢材消费的季节性低谷期，而油价居高不下已引发对全球经济前景的担忧，使潜在反弹的催化因素寥寥。
Benchmark futures in Singapore fell as much as 1.4% to $89.25 a ton, the lowest intraday level since September 2024. Prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were also at a two-year low. China is approaching a seasonally weak period for steel consumption, while elevated oil prices have raised concerns about the global economic outlook, leaving few catalysts for a potential rebound.
“铁矿石可能在十一月之前保持疲软，”Horizon Insights 首席有色金属分析师姜梦天表示。她补充称，价格可能进一步下跌至每吨86至85美元，因今年最后两个月历来是钢材消费最弱的时期。
“Iron ore is likely to stay soft through November,” said Mengtian Jiang, chief ferrous analyst at Horizon Insights. Prices could extend declines toward $86 to $85 a ton, with the last two months of the year historically the weakest period for steel consumption, she added.
“面对高企的港口库存，矿厂仅进行口口相传的补货，并且对宏观刺激已变得麻木，”姜说。她指出，四大矿业公司（包括力拓集团和必和必拓集团）的铁矿石出货量预计在第四季度将增加最多1800万吨，同时几内亚的西门杜矿仍在持续提升产量。
“Against elevated port stocks, mills are restocking only hand-to-mouth and have grown desensitized to macro stimulus,” Jiang said. Iron ore shipments from the four major miners, including Rio Tinto Group and BHP Group, are expected to rise by as much as 18 million tons in the fourth quarter, while Guinea’s Simandou mine continues to ramp up output, she said.
国有背景买家中国矿业资源集团与主要矿商之间的僵局曾向市场注入供应风险溢价，但随着包括与力拓在内的多项争议得到解决，该溢价已有所缓解。不过，澳大利亚的福特斯库有限公司仍在与中国矿业资源集团就潜在交易进行谈判，进展受阻。
A stand-off between state-backed buyer China Mineral Resources Group and key miners had injected a supply-risk premium into the market, but that has eased following resolutions, including with Rio Tinto. Still, Australia’s Fortescue Ltd. remains stuck in talks with CMRG over a potential deal.
截至新加坡时间上午10:45，铁矿石下跌1.2%，报每吨89.40美元。伦敦金属交易所方面，铜价上涨0.2%，至每吨14,360美元，因人工智能股的最新上涨提振了风险情绪。铝价下跌，锌价则维持在本月最高收盘价附近。
Iron ore was 1.2% lower at $89.40 a ton as of 10:45 a.m. Singapore time. On the London Metal Exchange, copper rose 0.2% to $14,360 a ton as risk sentiment got a boost from a fresh rally in artificial intelligence stocks. Aluminum fell and zinc held near its highest close this month.