东京，10月27日——信用评级机构穆迪的日本主权分析师周二告诉路透社，穆迪看到了日本重返持续增长和稳定通胀的令人鼓舞的迹象，但关键的考验将是这种韧性能否经受住未来的冲击。
TOKYO, Oct 27 - Moody's sees encouraging signs in Japan's return to sustained growth and stable inflation, but a key test will be whether that resilience can withstand future shocks, the rating agency's Japan sovereign analyst told Reuters on Tuesday.
穆迪给予日本A1评级，这是其第五高的投资级评级，展望稳定，自2014年将日本评级从Aa3下调以来一直保持不变。
Moody's rates Japan at A1, its fifth-highest investment-grade rating, with a stable outlook, unchanged since its 2014 downgrade of Japan from Aa3.
穆迪评级主权风险集团副总裁马丁·佩奇（Martin Petch）表示：“我们开始看到更像是持续的增长和合理地锚定在2%左右的通胀预期。”
"We're starting to see what looks more like sustained growth and inflation expectations that are reasonably well anchored around 2%," said Martin Petch, a vice president at the sovereign risk group of Moody's Ratings.
佩奇在接受采访时说：“这一点已经发生了变化”，他指的是从几十年的经济增长乏力和长期低通胀的转变。
"That's been something that's changed," Petch said in an interview, referring to a shift from decades of weak growth and chronically low inflation.
佩奇拒绝就未来的评级行动进行猜测，但他表示，穆迪正在观察日本经济和通胀环境的近期变化是否可持续，以及能否通过提高生产率和解决人口问题的改革来巩固这些变化。
Petch declined to speculate on future rating actions, but said Moody's was watching to see if recent changes in Japan's economic and inflation environment prove sustainable, along with reforms that boost productivity and tackle demographic woes.
他补充说，一个关键的考验是日本能否在未来的经济冲击中保持增长和通胀的稳定。
A key test, he added, is whether Japan can maintain growth and inflation stability through future economic shocks.
佩奇说：“当经济应对了冲击时，你通常就能知道增长是否已经持续，”他指出，日本在应对近期能源价格冲击方面表现良好，而央行则在努力使政策正常化。
"You can generally tell when growth has become sustained when the economy has dealt with a shock," Petch said, pointing out that Japan had coped well with recent energy-price shocks while the central bank keeps up efforts to normalise policy.
信用状况面临的直接威胁不大 首相高市早苗的食品销售税削减和雄心勃勃的支出计划今年震动了债券市场，但佩奇认为这些措施对日本的信用状况构成的直接威胁不大。
LITTLE IMMEDIATE THREAT SEEN TO CREDIT PROFILE Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's food sales tax cut and ambitious spending plans rattled bond markets this year, but Petch suggested the measures have posed little immediate threat to Japan's credit profile.
他补充说，其财政影响将取决于政府是否兑现其承诺，以弥补由此产生的收入损失。
Their fiscal impact would depend on whether the government delivered on its pledge to offset the resulting revenue loss, he added.
尽管各部委已提出创纪录的143万亿日元（合9080亿美元）的初步支出请求，但佩奇表示，与初步预算和补充预算的总和相比，这一增长相对温和。
Although ministries have sought a record 143 trillion yen ($908 billion) in initial spending requests, Petch said the rise was relatively modest compared with combined initial and supplementary budgets.
他补充说，这强化了穆迪的观点，即日本近期的财政整顿趋势并未出现有意义的偏离。
This reinforced Moody's view that there has been no meaningful departure from Japan's recent consolidation trend, he added.
但佩奇表示，政府这项37万亿日元的公私合作投资计划仍笼罩着不确定性。
But uncertainties hover over the government's 370-trillion-yen public-private investment initiative, Petch said.
他补充说，这些不确定性包括私营部门参与该计划的程度，以及该计划能否带来抵消日本人口结构不利因素所需的生产率提升。
These include the extent to which the private sector joins the initiative, and whether it can bring the productivity gains needed to offset Japan's demographic headwinds, he added.