
东京,10月6日 —— 日本银行可能会在本月传达信号,表明潜在通胀已大致达到其2%的目标,这据了解银行内部想法的三名消息人士表示,这凸显了该行在未来数月再次加息的准备意愿。
TOKYO, Oct 6 : The Bank of Japan may signal this month that underlying inflation has roughly hit its 2 per cent target, three sources familiar with its thinking said, highlighting its readiness to raise interest rates again in the coming months.
任何这样的宣布在很大程度上只是象征性的,但它将强化市场对12月加息的主导性预期,并表明日本银行准备继续以短间隔时间加息。
Any such announcement would largely be symbolic, but it would reinforce dominant market expectations of a December hike and signal the BOJ's readiness to keep raising interest rates in short intervals.
该央行已开始强调,在判断进一步加息的节奏和时机时,需要将潜在通胀锚定在其目标附近。
The central bank has begun stressing the need to anchor underlying inflation around its target in judging the pace and timing of further interest rate increases.
据消息人士称,日本银行刚刚在9月加过一次息,许多人对本月再次加息持谨慎态度,更愿意等待更多数据来评估此前加息对国内金融状况的影响。
Having just raised rates in September, many in the central bank are cautious about delivering another hike this month and prefer to gauge more data on how past rate increases have affected domestic financial conditions, the sources said.
消息人士表示,最近一系列数据,如东京消费者通胀和央行季度“tankan”企业调查,有助于日本银行更加确信潜在通胀已大致达到2%的目标。
A recent slew of data, such as Tokyo consumer inflation and the central bank's quarterly "tankan" business survey, are likely heightening the BOJ's conviction that underlying inflation has roughly reached its 2 per cent target, the sources said.
但消息人士也表示,tankan调查还显示企业通胀趋于平稳,并未上升到需要立即政策回应的程度,这减轻了日本银行在本月连续加息的压力。
But the tankan also showed corporate inflation moving sideways and not heightening in a way that requires an immediate policy response, the sources said, taking pressure off the BOJ to deliver a back-to-back rate hike this month.
“通胀预期仍然较高,但并未激增”,这表明尽管通胀风险依然存在,但并未急剧上升,据了解银行内部人士之一如是表示,并得到另一名消息人士的附和。
"Inflation expectations remain elevated but not flaring up," suggesting that while inflation risks remain, they are not heightening sharply, one of the sources said, a view echoed by another source.
“总的来说,价格走势符合日本银行的预期”,这表明潜在通胀现已大致达到目标水平,另一位消息人士如是表示。这些消息人士要求匿名,因为他们未获授权公开发言。“毫不迟疑地达到目标”日本央行(BOJ)上个月将其关键利率上调至31年来的最高水平,行长植田和男表示,该央行已进入防止核心通胀率超出目标阶段的政策周期,这增加了进一步收紧政策的可能性。
"All in all, prices are moving in line with the BOJ's projections," suggesting that underlying inflation was now roughly around its target, a third source said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly. HITTING TARGET 'IN NO TIME' The BOJ raised its key rate to a 31-year high last month, with Governor Kazuo Ueda signalling the central bank has entered a phase focused on preventing underlying inflation from overshooting its target, raising the prospect of tighter policy.
此次加息继6月一次加息之后进行,市场因此预计日本央行大约每季度会加息一次。
The hike followed one in June, leading markets to project the BOJ raising rates at roughly once every quarter.
分析师表示,尽管日元再度走弱可能给日本央行带来压力,迫使其在10月再次加息,但本月美国加息前景减弱,也减轻了其加息的压力。
While a renewed slide in the yen could pile pressure on the BOJ to hike rates again in October, receding prospects of a US rate increase this month have taken some pressure off the BOJ to do so, analysts say.
不过,日本央行仍专注于通过近期再次加息来防范通胀风险。在9月加息时,行长指出,剔除一次性因素后的广泛需求驱动型价格趋势——即核心通胀率——已接近2%。
Still, the BOJ remains focused on forestalling inflationary risks with another near-term rate hike. In raising rates in September, the governor said underlying inflation, which is the broad, demand-driven price trend that strips away one-off factors, was quite close to 2 per cent.
9月会议的意见摘要也显示,部分委员认为核心通胀率已接近2%,或“很快”将达到这一水平。消息人士称,随着批发和消费者通胀持续上升、工资稳步增长以及原油价格再度上涨,核心通胀率长期稳定在日本央行目标水平附近的可能性已经增强。
A summary of opinions at the September meeting also showed some members saying underlying inflation was quite close to 2 per cent or would reach that level "in no time." Along with continued rises in wholesale and consumer inflation, steady wage gains and a renewed rise in crude oil prices have heightened prospects for underlying inflation to durably move around the BOJ's target, the sources said.
他们表示,日本央行很可能在10月29日至30日下一次政策会议后发布的季度报告中,援引这些因素来表明核心通胀率大致已达到其目标水平。
The BOJ will likely point to such factors in signalling that underlying inflation has roughly hit its target in a quarterly report due after its next policy meeting on October 29-30, they said.
在7月发布的最新报告中,日本央行表示,预计核心通胀率将在2028年10月至次年3月期间达到与其2%目标相符的水平。
In the current report released in July, the BOJ said it expects underlying inflation to reach levels consistent with its 2 per cent target sometime between October and March 2028.