
Anthropic上半年录得807亿美元净亏损,其另一面则是,亚马逊和Alphabet在部分相同的融资交易中账面收益颇丰。
There’s a flip side to Anthropic’s $80.7 billion net loss for the first half of this year. On the other side of the ledger, Amazon.com and Alphabet booked large paper gains on some of the same financing deals.
随着Anthropic筹备最早在11月进行首次公开募股(IPO),一个棘手问题随之浮现:这类收益和亏损是否应计入华尔街股票分析师广泛宣传的替代性收益指标?
This tees up a vexing question as Anthropic prepares for an initial public offering as soon as November: Should gains and losses like those count in the alternative earnings metrics widely touted by Wall Street stock analysts?
在亚马逊和Alphabet,这些收益是计入的。但在Anthropic,相应的亏损不计入,或者说,至少不计入该公司的调整后利润数字中。
At Amazon and Alphabet, the gains count. But at Anthropic, the corresponding losses don’t, or at least not in the company’s adjusted profit figures.
Anthropic的亏损主要源于将其资产负债表上的负债价值上调,这一过程在利润表上产生的亏损,与资产减值产生的亏损类似。这些负债包括可转换借据,可追溯至这家人工智能开发商早期的融资轮次。可转换借据本质上是贷款,最终会转换为公司股票,而非以现金偿还。
Anthropic’s red ink arose mainly from marking up the value of liabilities on its balance sheet, a process that produces losses on the income statement much like marking down an asset’s value does. The liabilities included convertible promissory notes dating to the artificial-intelligence developer’s early financing rounds. The convertible notes essentially are loans that turn into company stock instead of being repaid in cash.
随着Anthropic的市值飙升,这些借据的价值也随之水涨船高。这一激增导致Anthropic录得大额非现金亏损,同时也为Anthropic的投资者(包括亚马逊和Alphabet,即谷歌的母公司)带来了大规模的按市价计价收益。
As Anthropic’s market value soared, so did the notes’ value. The surge resulted in large noncash losses for Anthropic and big mark-to-market gains for Anthropic investors, including Amazon and Alphabet, Google’s parent.
这些未实现的收益和亏损属于公认会计原则下的净收入。跟踪亚马逊和Alphabet的分析师将这些收益计入其共识的“华尔街收益”指标,尽管这些估值调整波动较大,且与公司核心运营表现无关。
Those unrealized gains and losses are part of net income under generally accepted accounting principles. The analysts who follow Amazon and Alphabet included the gains in their consensus “Street earnings” metrics, even though the valuation marks are volatile and unrelated to the companies’ core operating performance.
“华尔街收益”是指大多数跟踪某家公司的分析师所采用的任何收益指标,无论是非GAAP还是GAAP。没有统一标准来规范这些指标。这些数字随后进入标准普尔500指数及其他指数中最广泛收集的收益数据。根据分析师排除或不排除哪些项目,股市可能看起来估值合理,也可能显得极其昂贵。
Street earnings are whatever earnings metric a majority of analysts covering a company adopt, whether non-GAAP or GAAP. There is no standard governing them. These figures in turn make their way into the most widely collected earnings data for the S&P 500 and other indexes. Depending on which items the analysts exclude or don’t, the stock market might look reasonably valued or wildly expensive.
华尔街的盈利游戏由来已久,这让投资者普遍感到困惑。追踪公司盈利超预期或不及预期的分析师,通常会剔除股票薪酬等经常性成本——前提是管理层引导他们这么做。但当一家公司从资产负债表上获得意外收益时,分析师往往乐于让这笔提振留在最终利润中。
Wall Street’s earnings game is a long tradition that has led to widespread confusion for investors. Analysts who track companies’ earnings beats and misses routinely strip out recurring costs like stock-based pay, if management guides them to do so. But when a company reaps a balance-sheet windfall, the analysts often are happy to let the boost remain in the bottom line.
对于此类收益和损失是剔除还是保留,各大科技公司的做法并不一致。例如,英伟达引导分析师关注剔除未实现投资损益的调整后数字,而覆盖这家芯片制造商的分析师也接受了这一做法。
The practice of excluding or keeping gains and losses such as these has been inconsistent across the biggest tech companies. Nvidia, for instance, points analysts to adjusted numbers that exclude unrealized investment gains, and the analysts who cover the chip maker have gone along with that approach.
[视频] 深入解读Anthropic的IPO文件:营收飙升与计算成本上升。Anthropic于周一公开提交了IPO招股说明书,引导投资者关注一项名为“调整后净利润”的非标准指标。按此衡量,Anthropic上半年盈利27亿美元,而非807亿美元的净亏损。
[video] Inside Anthropic’s IPO Filing: Soaring Revenue and Rising Computing Costs Anthropic, which publicly filed its IPO prospectus Monday, is directing investors to a nonstandard metric called adjusted net income. By this measure, Anthropic had a $2.7 billion profit in the first half, instead of the $80.7 billion net loss.
被剔除的亏损中约有720亿美元来自将包括可转换票据在内的各种负债按市值计价。剔除这些亏损可以说是有道理的,理由是它们并不反映持续经营状况。但若果真如此,那么覆盖亚马逊和Alphabet的分析师也应该从这两家公司的华尔街盈利中剔除相应的收益。
About $72 billion of the excluded losses arose from marking various liabilities, including convertible notes, to market values. Excluding those losses arguably makes sense, on the grounds that they aren’t indicative of ongoing operations. But if that is true, then the analysts who cover Amazon and Alphabet should be excluding the corresponding gains from the companies’ Street earnings.
这并非Anthropic唯一的剔除项。为了得出27亿美元的调整后净利润,它还剔除了其他金融工具约90亿美元的按市值计价亏损,以及20亿美元的股票薪酬费用。
Those weren’t Anthropic’s only exclusions. To get its $2.7 billion of adjusted net income, it also excluded roughly $9 billion in mark-to-market losses on other financial instruments, along with $2 billion in stock-based compensation expenses.
作为参照,亚马逊上半年从对私营公司的股权投资中录得约630亿美元的收益,主要来自Anthropic。这构成了亚马逊税前利润的大部分。
For context, Amazon during the first half booked about $63 billion of gains on equity investments in private companies, primarily from Anthropic. That was most of Amazon’s pretax profit.
亚马逊的持股最初是可转换票据,其中一部分转换成了优先股。它还直接购买了优先股。如果Anthropic完成IPO,这些工具将转换为普通股,从而结束Anthropic账面上的按市值计价负债调整,即便亚马逊和Alphabet继续按市值对股份进行计价。
Amazon’s stake began as convertible notes, some of which converted into preferred stock. It also bought preferred stock directly. Should Anthropic complete its IPO, the instruments would convert into common equity, ending the mark-to-market liability adjustments on Anthropic’s books, even as Amazon and Alphabet continue to mark the shares to market values.
Alphabet方面,上半年录得约1360亿美元的股权投资净收益。这构成了其税前利润的大部分,但该公司并未具体说明其中有多少与Anthropic相关。
Alphabet for its part recorded about $136 billion in net gains on equity investments during the first half. That was most of its pretax profit, but it didn’t specify how much was tied to Anthropic.
据《华尔街日报》分析,仅第二季度,这两家公司的此类收益就约占标普500指数成分股公司利润的15%。
During the second quarter alone, such gains at these two companies represented about 15% of S&P 500 earnings, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.
一旦Anthropic真的上市,分析师们可以预见会忽略这些公允价值损失,转而关注该公司的前瞻轨迹。大多数投资者也不会回头看。
Once Anthropic does go public, analysts will predictably ignore the fair-value losses to focus on the company’s forward trajectory. Most investors won’t look back either.
尽管如此,不同的处理方式凸显了华尔街非标准盈利指标中的双重标准。如果Anthropic巨额账面亏损不应计入调整后盈利,那么其交易另一侧的大额账面收益也不应计入。
Nonetheless, the differing treatments spotlight the double standard in Wall Street’s nonstandard earnings metrics. If Anthropic’s colossal paper losses shouldn’t count in adjusted earnings, neither should the large paper gains on the other side of its deals.
Anthropic的公开亮相如果得以实现,将成为AI热潮的一个里程碑。它也应促使人们进行一些早该进行的反思:究竟什么才真正值得计入经营业绩。
Anthropic’s public debut, should it go through, will be a milestone for the AI boom. It should also prompt some long-overdue reflection on what really deserves to be counted in operating performance.