美联储仍有大量工作要做，但不会在10月采取行动。这是CNBC最新一期美联储调查的关键发现。该调查对象为30位基金经理、策略师和经济学家，结果显示93%的人预期美联储将在本周会议上暂停加息，76%的人预计在12月下次会议上加息。超过半数受访者表示，美联储明年将加息，平均约为两次加息。
Federal Reserve has considerable work to do. But it's not going to do it in October. That's the key finding in CNBC's latest Fed Survey of 30 fund managers, strategists and economists, which showed that 93% expect a pause at the Fed meeting taking place this week and 76% anticipate a rate hike at its next meeting in December. And more than half say the Fed will hike next year by an average of about two rate hikes.
“在经历了长期的货币和财政宽松之后，名义GDP增长率达6%-8%，通胀先行指标普遍偏暖至偏热，美联储不愿加息令人费解，”Janus Henderson Investors全球宏观投资主管Richard Bernstein表示。
"Their hesitancy to raise rates is unfathomable after an extended period of monetary and fiscal generosity, with nominal GDP running 6-8%, and when the leading indicators of inflation are uniformly warm to hot,'' said Richard Bernstein, global head of macro investing at Janus Henderson Investors.
40%的受访者认为，美联储必须将经济增长放缓至潜在水平以下才能解决通胀问题。相比之下，27%的人认为美联储无需放缓经济，23%的人认为美联储只需在一定程度上放缓经济。
A plurality of 40% say the Fed must slow growth below potential to solve the inflation problem That compares with 27% who say the Fed does not need to slow the economy and 23% who say the Fed has to slow the economy only somewhat.
CNBC在每次美联储会议前都会进行此项调查。结果显示，70%的人认为通胀问题比单纯的能源价格上涨更为广泛。美国原油基准价格预计六个月后将达到每桶88美元，高于9月调查时的82美元，但低于目前的101美元。
The survey, which CNBC conducts before every Fed meeting, found that 70% see the inflation problem as broader than just the rising price of energy. The U.S. crude oil benchmark is forecast to be at $88 a barrel six months from now, up from $82 in the September survey, but below the current level of $101.
当被问及美联储在本次会议上应采取何种行动时，30%的人表示应立即加息。调查受访者预计，至少有两位拥有投票权的美联储官员将对维持利率不变的决定投出反对票。
Asked what the Fed should do at the current meeting, 30% said it should hike rates now. At least two Fed voters are expected by survey respondents to dissent from the decision to keep rates unchanged.
“总需求数据（可能高于7%……）和通胀数据都指向强烈的加息必要性，”Brean Capital, LLC首席经济顾问John Ryding写道。并非所有人都认同这一观点。一些人担心经济走弱。
"The aggregate demand data (probably north of 7%...) and the inflation data point to the strong need to hike rates,'' wrote John Ryding, chief economic advisor for Brean Capital, LLC. Not all agree. Some are concerned with a weakening economy.
“伊朗战争正在升级，实际工资下降，利率上升，由人工智能推动的股市看起来摇摇欲坠，”穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪写道。“通胀居高不下，但几乎没有迹象表明它正在变得根深蒂固。现在不是美联储进一步加息的时候。
"The Iran War is intensifying, real wages are falling, interest rates are rising, and the AI-fueled stock market looks shaky," wrote Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Inflation is high, but there's little sign it is becoming entrenched. This isn't the time for more Fed rate hikes.
分析：为何2万亿美元赤字和5%国债收益率正成为美国最大经济挑战 就在美联储权衡进一步加息之际，住房领域闪现警示信号 经济学家：热辣PPI显示美联储的工作尚未完成 高通胀如何在美国成为‘生活常态’在众多冲击和挑战之中——包括预期中的高通胀、美联储加息以及高油价持续——受访者仍认为经济增长将保持在潜在水平之上，即不会导致通胀或通缩的增长水平。今年GDP预测上调至2.4%。自上次调查以来略有下调，但2027年仍徘徊在高于潜在水平的2.2%。2025年增长预测为2.05%。
Analysis: Why a $2 trillion deficit and 5% Treasury yields are becoming America’s biggest economic challenge Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more rate hikes Economists: Hot PPI shows Fed’s work is not done How high inflation became a ‘fact of life’ in the U.S. Amid numerous shocks and challenges — including high inflation expected Fed rate hikes and a continuation of high oil prices — respondents still see economic growth remaining above potential, or the level of growth that doesn't lead to inflation or deflation. Forecasts of GDP for this year rose to 2.4%. They ticked down slightly since the last survey but still hover above potential at 2.2% for 2027. Growth in 2025 came in at 2.05%.
受访者整体认为，美国未来一年陷入衰退的风险为26%，低于上次调查的29%。
Respondents in aggregate put the risk of the U.S. entering a recession in the next year at 26%, down from 29% in the last survey.
标普500指数今年展望维持稳定，在7600点左右，但明年预测从上次调查的8274点下调至8033点。该指数周一收于7676点。
The outlook for the S&P 500 stayed stable for this year at around 7,600 but moved down to 8,033 for next year from 8,274 in the prior survey. The index closed at 7,676 Monday.
预计失业率将在今年剩余时间保持在4.2%稳定，但2027年升至4.4%。消费者价格指数预计从9月当前的3.7%微降至3.6%，明年将有意义地回落至2.6%。
Unemployment is forecast to remain steady at 4.2% through the remainder of the year but rise to 4.4% in 2027. The Consumer Price Index is seen ticking down to 3.6% from the current pace of 3.7% in September but fall meaningfully next year to 2.6%.
最大风险：伊朗战争持续和人工智能泡沫破裂 “美联储主席沃什在未来与特朗普总统的所有对话中，都需要反复强调这一信条：降低美国通胀的最快途径是取消关税并结束伊朗战争，”MOSAIC高级副总裁兼市场策略师罗布·摩根表示。
The biggest risks: a continuation of the Iran war and the bursting of the artificial-intelligence bubble "Fed Chair Warsh, in all of his future conversations with President Trump, need to repeat this mantra: the quickest way to bring down inflation in the U.S. is to end tariffs and end the war in Iran," said Rob Morgan, senior vice president and market strategist at MOSAIC.
在高债券收益率的问题上，受访者以几乎相同的比例认为，罪魁祸首是高通胀、高增长、大量债务发行以及对美联储基金利率走高的预期。当被具体问及哪一类供应是更大的问题来源时，50%的人说是政府债务，13%的人说是为人工智能建设融资而发行的债务。但三分之一的人表示，两者对收益率上升的贡献相同。
When it comes to high bond yields respondents in almost equal percentages say the culprits are high inflation, high growth, large amounts of debt issuance and expectations for a higher Fed funds rate. Asked specifically about which supply was the bigger source of the problem, 50% said government debt and 13% said debt to fund the AI buildout. But a third said both had contributed equally to the rise in yields.
平均而言，受访者认为10年期收益率今年将保持在5%以上，并在2027年小幅降至4.8%。Subodh Kumar & Associates总裁苏博德·库马尔写道：“在能源和贸易压力下通胀顽固……美国国债基准收益率高于5%代表着一个新的区间，而非异常现象。”
On average, respondents see the 10-year yield remaining above 5% this year and dropping slightly to 4.8% in 2027 "With stubborn inflation amid energy and trade pressures… benchmark U.S. Treasury bond yields above 5% represent a new band, not an anomaly," wrote Subodh Kumar, president, Subodh Kumar & Associates.
国会选举也被视为市场风险：63%的人表示，法律挑战会带来一定的市场风险，这些挑战可能延长围绕哪一方控制国会的 uncertainty。
The congressional election is also seen as a market risk: 63% say there is some market risk from legal challenges that could extend uncertainty over which party controls congress.
Haverford Trust Co.固定收益总监约翰·唐纳森表示：“选举结果长期不确定的可能性是市场近期面临的最大风险之一，而我们都清楚市场多么讨厌不确定性。”
"The potential for prolonged election uncertainty is one of the largest near-term risks to the markets, and we all know how much markets hate uncertainty," said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust Co.
超过半数受访者表示，下周国会选举最可能的结果是民主党控制两院，高于上次调查的29%。40%的人认为民主党最终将控制众议院但不会控制参议院。
More than half of respondents say the most likely outcome of next week's congressional election is Democratic control of both houses, up from 29% in the last survey. Forty percent believe the Democrats will end up with control of the House but not the Senate.
多数人认为选举不会给个人或企业税收带来什么变化，但41%的人预计赤字会更高。不过，这种担忧与预期哪一方控制国会并无关联。个人增长预测也因受访者认为哪一方将控制国会而差异不大。
Most see little change coming to individual or corporate taxes as a result of the election, but 41% expect higher deficits. However, that worry is not linked to which party is expected to control Congress. Individual growth forecasts also differed little based on which party the respondents thought would control Congress.