2026年美国中期选举将于下周二举行，共和党寻求捍卫其在众议院和参议院的多数席位，但在预测市场上，民主党被视为以两比一的优势成为翻转两院、使其变“蓝”的热门。
The 2026 U.S. midterm election will be held a week from Tuesday, with the Republican Party looking to defend majorities in both the House and Senate, though Democrats are seen as two-to-one favorites to flip both chambers blue on prediction markets.
预测平台Kalshi上的投机者认为，民主党控制众参两院的概率为63%。自10月初以来，这一赔率基本保持稳定。与此同时，共和党横扫两院的概率略低于10%，而民主党赢得众议院、共和党保持参议院多数的概率为29%。市场上的合约依据美国国会的官方数据进行结算。
Speculators on platform Kalshi place a 63% chance that Democrats win control of both the House and Senate. Those odds have stayed relatively stable since the beginning of October. Meanwhile, there's just under a 10% chance that Republicans sweep both chambers, and a 29% chance Democrats win the House while the GOP maintains its majority in the Senate. Contracts on the market are resolved using official data from the U.S. Congress.
赔率和博彩平台不采用传统政治民调的方法，因此不能替代政治民调。
Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.
周日，在巴西大选投票结束前，预测市场给右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗很高的获胜赔率，但现任左翼总统卢拉·达席尔瓦最终连任。本选举周期中，一些民主党初选市场也因给某些候选人极高的获胜赔率而受到批评，而这些候选人最终仅以微弱优势获胜或落败。
On Sunday, prediction markets gave high odds to right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro to win in the Brazil presidential election before polls closed, though the incumbent left-wing president Lula da Silva was re-elected. Some markets in Democratic primaries this election cycle also drew criticism for giving sky-high odds to some candidates winning who ultimately only narrowly won or lost.
不过，平台方表示，交易员下注的赔率往往最终会以完全相同的百分比成真。这意味着，本质上，在事件合约交易所中，拥有20%获胜几率的候选人会有20%的时间实现“冷门”获胜。
Platforms, however, say that odds traders place often end up happening that exact percentage of the time. That means, essentially, that a candidate with a 20% chance to win on an event contract exchange pulls out an "upset" win 20% of the time.
在9月初之前，民主党横扫国会两院的几率不足50%，尽管其几率已从今年早些时候、美伊战争爆发和油价上涨冲击消费者之前的30%左右有所上升。
Before early September, Democrats had less than a 50% chance to sweep both chambers of Congress, though their odds have risen from around 30% earlier in the year before the start of the U.S.-Iran war and higher gas prices that have hit consumers.
在Polymarket平台上，民主党横扫两院的几率为65%。
On Polymarket, Democrats have a 65% chance to sweep both houses.
民调普遍显示，民主党在众议院全国普选票中占优，并在一系列将决定参议院控制权的红州参议院竞选中具有竞争力。尽管众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（共和党-路易斯安那州）对这些结果表示怀疑。
Polls broadly show Democrats favored in the national popular vote for the House, and competitive in a series of red-state Senate races that will decide control of the upper chamber. Though House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has cast doubt on those findings.
“我们走遍了海岸到海岸，”他在周一接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，“我要告诉你们，民调是不准确的。”
"We've been from coast to coast," he said in an appearance on Fox News Monday, "and I'm telling you, the polling is inaccurate."