根据最新的 Markets Pulse 调查，民主党在 11 月 3 日的中期选举中赢得美国国会两院控制权，是最有可能引发债券反弹的结果。
Democrats winning control of both houses of US Congress at the Nov. 3 midterm election is the outcome that would most likely set up a bond rally, according to the latest Markets Pulse survey.
在 10 月 2 日至 17 日进行的民调中，301 名受访者中超过半数表示，预计民主党全面获胜后的 12 个月内，美国国债收益率将下降。单独就国会分裂的结果提问时，36% 的受访者预期收益率会下降。如果共和党控制两院，仅有 26% 的受访者预期收益率会下降。
More than half of the 301 respondents to a poll conducted Oct. 2-17 said they expect Treasury yields would fall over the 12 months after a Democratic sweep. Separately, when asked about the outcome from a split Congress, 36% expected yields to decline. Just 26% see a fall in yields if both houses are controlled by Republicans.
相反，共和党全面控制国会将为股市提供最佳前景，超过 60% 的参与者表示，预计在此结果出现后的一年内，标普 500 指数将上涨。民主党全面获胜被视为对股市最不利的选项，58% 的参与者预计在此情况下，标普 500 指数在 12 个月内将下跌。这主要是因为民主党被认为更有可能支持监管，从而减缓人工智能热潮——这也可能损害经济增长，进而提升债券的吸引力。
Conversely, an all-Republican Congress would provide the best outlook for stocks, with more than 60% of participants saying they expect the S&P 500 to rise in the year following such a result. Democrats were seen as the most bearish option for stocks, with 58% of participants expecting a decline in the S&P 500 over 12 months on a sweep. That’s mainly because they’re seen as more likely to support regulation slowing the AI boom — something that also has the potential to hurt growth, which would boost the appeal of bonds.
Invesco Advisers Inc. 首席投资官兼固定收益联席主管 Robert Waldner 表示，中期选举传达出的全面反 AI 信号“可能会对增长产生影响”。他补充说，这也很可能导致美国国债反弹。
A sweeping anti-AI takeaway from the midterms “could have an impact on growth,” said Robert Waldner, CIO and co-head of fixed income at Invesco Advisers Inc. That will likely cause a rally in Treasuries as well, he added.
选民似乎倾向于至少让民主党在众议院获得多数席位——根据《华盛顿邮报》-ABC News-Ipsos 于 10 月 18 日发布的民调，在已登记和可能投票的选民中，民主党领先共和党 8 个百分点。参议院的前景则不那么确定。
Voters appear likely to hand Democrats a majority at least in the House of Representatives — the party had an eight-point lead over Republicans amid registered and likely voters in a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll published Oct. 18. The outlook for the Senate is less certain.
就股市涨幅的速度而言——截至 9 月底，标普 500 指数的平均涨幅约为每月 1.3%——65% 的受访者表示，共和党控制国会将使涨速加快或大致保持不变。相比之下，民主党控制国会的这一比例为 37%，国会分裂为 44%。
In terms of the pace of stock gains — which were at an average rate of about 1.3% per month for the S&P 500 through the end of September — 65% of respondents said Republican control of Congress would see it accelerate or stay about the same. That compares to 37% for a Democrat-controlled Congress and 44% for a split.
根据《脉搏》调查，明年围绕提高债务上限的长期博弈将主要体现在更高的美国国债收益率上。近半数受访者表示，债券抛售将是此类斗争最大的市场后果。
A prolonged battle over raising the debt ceiling next year would predominantly make itself known in higher Treasury yields, according to the Pulse. Nearly half of all respondents said a selloff in bonds would be the biggest market consequence of such a fight.
“如果民主党重新夺回众议院控制权，通过的财政政策会减少，这应当会使利率保持在可控范围内，”Capital Advisors Group Inc. 高级投资组合经理 Eric Souza 表示。“明年更大的问题将是债务上限问题再次浮现。”法律限制了财政部为履行联邦支出义务而能借款的金额，且经常触及上限。目前的借款授权预计将在 2027 年下半年耗尽。
“If the Democrats take back control of the House, you’re going to see less fiscal [policies] being passed, which should keep rates contained,” said Eric Souza, senior portfolio manager at Capital Advisors Group Inc. “The bigger thing for next year is going to be the debt ceiling issue coming up again.”The law limits how much money the Treasury can borrow to meet federal spending obligations, and it regularly comes up against the cap. The current borrowing authority is on track to run out in the second half of 2027.
关于特朗普政府的政策，调查参与者正密切关注外交事务，以寻找美国资产下一步走向的线索。
Concerning the Trump administration’s policies, survey participants are keeping a close eye on foreign affairs for clues to the next move for US assets.
近 60% 的受访者表示，外交政策——特别是与伊朗的战争——构成了中期选举后 12 个月内的最大风险。另一方面，42% 的受访者认为，结束与伊朗的战争将是对美国资产最大的潜在利好。
Nearly 60% of respondents said foreign policy — in particular the war with Iran — poses the biggest risk in the 12 months after midterms. On the other hand, ending the war with Iran was cited by 42% of respondents as the largest potential benefit to US assets.
特朗普几周前在社交媒体发文称，美国不会在中期选举前袭击伊朗。然而，中东局势持续起伏不定。政府一直在努力应对高企的柴油和汽油价格，尤其是在选民准备前往投票站之际。
Trump posted on social media a few weeks ago to say the US would not attack Iran ahead of the midterms. Tensions in the Middle East have continued to ebb and flow, however. The administration has been making efforts to combat high diesel and gasoline prices, particularly as voters get ready to head to the polls.
在监管方面，围绕数据中心和人工智能的规则制定增加——这是政治光谱两边选民都关注的敏感议题——可能会拖累美国股市。
On the regulatory front, increased rulemaking around data centers and artificial intelligence — a hot-button issue for constituents on both sides of the political aisle — is likely to derail US stocks.
超过 60% 的受访者表示，如果国会处于可以更严格监管 AI 的地位，随着作为近期反弹重要驱动力的大型科技公司盈利预期被压低，股市将在随后的 12 个月内受损。
More than 60% of respondents said if Congress is in a position to regulate AI more strictly, stocks will suffer over the ensuing 12 months as earnings expectations for big tech companies, which have been significant drivers of recent rallies, get tamped down.
民主党人对人工智能安全敲响警钟，而对数据中心的反弹情绪日益高涨，导致两党成员均在考虑加强对其建设的监管。
Democrats have raised alarm bells about AI safety, and increased backlash to data centers has members of both parties considering more regulation around their construction.
“蓝色浪潮增加了实施更多、更严厉的数据中心建设暂停令的可能性，也增加了总体上加强人工智能监管的环境可能性，”富国银行首席股票策略师权旭成（Ohsung Kwon，音译）表示。他补充称，市场影响将是“人工智能建设放缓，资金从人工智能资本支出承接方轮动至资本支出投入方，市场态势转为更加防御性”。
“A blue wave increases the likelihood of more, and more severe, data center moratoriums as well as a general environment of heightened AI regulation,” said Ohsung Kwon, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo. The market impact would be “a slowdown in the AI buildout, a rotation from AI capex takers to AI capex spenders, and a more defensive market posture,” Kwon added.
毋庸置疑，历史表明，无论选举结果如何，股市都可能上涨。富国银行公司的一项分析发现，二战后时代，在每次中期选举后的12个月里，标普500指数均实现了上涨。对2027年经济进一步增长的预期，也可能为股市延续涨势奠定基础。
To be sure, history shows stocks may rise regardless of the election outcome. An analysis by Wells Fargo & Co. found that the S&P 500 Index has risen in the 12 months after every midterm election in the post-World War II era. Expectations for further economic growth in 2027 may also set equities up to extend their advance.
脉搏调查参与者在自身仓位上相当坚定：55%表示，无论选举结果如何，他们都不会认真考虑出售部分个人持有的美国股票。
Pulse survey participants are fairly set in their own positioning: 55% said they wouldn’t seriously consider selling some of their own personal holdings of US stocks no matter the election outcome.