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前沿AI实验室称其模型否定了指数时间假设。这意味着什么?Frontier AI labs say their models refuted the Exponential Time Hypothesis. What does that mean?

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Anthropic和OpenAI的标志Anthropic and OpenAI logos

OpenAI 昨日发布了三个长期困扰研究人员的重大数学问题的解决方案。其中之一是对指数时间假设(ETH)的意外否定,这是计算机科学中一个持久的假设,在我们理解什么是难以计算的问题方面发挥着重要作用。

OpenAI released solutions to three blockbuster math problems that have long vexed researchers yesterday. One was a surprise rejection of the Exponential Time Hypothesis (ETH), a durable assumption in computer science that plays a large role in how we understand what is difficult to compute.

与这家前沿实验室之前发布证明时一样,科学界的反应是兴奋与沮丧交织。Anthropic 数学家 Levent Alpöge 指出,OpenAI 的解决方案是基于预先存在的成果,几小时后,Anthropic 随后发布了其自身对 ETH 的反驳。

As with previous proof-drops from the frontier lab, scientific communities responded with a mixture of thrill and dismay. Anthropic mathematician Levent Alpöge suggested that OpenAI was basing its solutions from pre-existing work, and hours later, Anthropic subsequently released its own refutation of ETH.

然而,OpenAI 的流程正在演变。这一次,该实验室针对涉及的三个学科采取了不同的发布结构:数学家们在 GitHub 上获得了该成果;计算机科学家组建了一个工作组,要求公开分享证明,并由 OpenAI 资助一次会议来讨论这些证明;物理学家组建了一个工作组,将决定如何发布他们的成果。

However, OpenAI’s process is evolving. This time, the lab structured its releases differently for each of the three disciplines involved: Mathematicians got the work dropped on GitHub; the computer scientists formed a working group, asked for the proofs to be shared publicly and OpenAI to fund a conference to discuss them; the physicists formed a working group that will determine how their result will be released.

麻省理工学院教授 Ryan Williams 是组织其领域对这一新发现做出回应的计算机科学家。Williams 的研究聚焦于这些计算复杂性问题,过去曾批评 OpenAI 的做法,称其今年 10 月早些时候的证明披露是“对数学家的 DDOS 攻击”。然而,他告诉 TechCrunch,他同意与前沿实验室合作,以帮助引导对该领域至关重要的思想。该实验室请他协助解读该解决方案,加州大学圣地亚哥分校计算机科学家 Russell Impagliazzo 和 Ramamohan Paturi 也参与其中,二人于 1999 年首次发表了 ETH。

MIT Professor Ryan Williams is the computer scientist who is organizing his field’s response to the new finding. Williams, whose work focuses on these questions of computational complexity, has criticized OpenAI’s approach in the past, calling its proof dump earlier this October a “DDOS attack on mathematicians.”However, he agreed to collaborate with the frontier labs in order to help shepherd ideas that are vital to the field, he told TechCrunch. The lab asked him to help interpret the solution, along with UC San Diego computer scientists Russell Impagliazzo and Ramamohan Paturi, who first published the ETH in 1999.

他们的第一步是发布一封公开信,呼吁对这些问题感兴趣的科学家提供反馈,并讨论围绕 AI 对其工作贡献的规范。

Their first step was to release an open letter calling for feedback from scientists interested in these problems and a discussion of the norms around AI contributions to their work.

“其中一些部分[OpenAI的证明]可能可以说是常规操作,但确实有两三个看起来很‘外星’的部分,正是我看到的这些部分让我觉得,哇,这是整个社区需要共同攻克的东西,”Williams告诉TechCrunch。你了解P对NP问题吗?

“Some parts [of OpenAI’s proof] are, maybe you could say routine, but then yes, there are two or three alien-looking parts, and it’s exactly these parts that that I saw that made me think, wow, this is something that the whole community needs to work on together,” Williams told TechCrunch. Are you down with P vs NP?

ETH属于一类更广泛的问题,称为P对NP问题,这一问题在计算机科学及许多其他领域已激荡数十年。简单来说,研究者试图弄清:任何解决方案易于验证的问题(NP),是否也易于求解(P)。

The ETH is part of a broader class of problems known as P vs NP, which has animated computer science and many other fields for decades. Reductively, researchers are trying to understand if any problem whose solution can be easily verified (NP) can also be easily solved (P).

一个简单的例子是数独游戏:一旦谜题的解摆在面前,可以快速验证,但找到解却很耗时。这种动态在一系列重要问题中普遍存在,也是加密系统的理论基础:拥有密钥时,你能还原加密信息,但真正破解有效密码所需时间太长,不具实用性。

A simple example is the game Sodoku: Once a solution to a puzzle is in place, it can be quickly verified, but finding the solution is time-consuming. That dynamic is true across a range of important problems, and the insight underpins cryptographic systems: When you have the key to an encoded message, you can reveal it, but actually cracking an effective code takes too long to be useful.

然而,科学家尚未证明这是否总是成立。“P=NP意味着,不仅存在数独解时你能验证,你还能直接生成它们,”Williams说。“P=NP断言这对每一个你能快速验证的问题都成立——如果能快速验证,就能快速求解。所以这看起来好得不像真的。”这也是大多数科学家假设P≠NP的原因。ETH为此提供了证据。它基本上表明,即使是最快的计算机算法,在一类棘手的逻辑谜题中,随着变量数量增加,寻找解所需时间也会呈指数级增长。

However, scientists have yet to prove whether that is always true. “P = NP is saying that, not only can you verify Sudoku solutions when they exist, you can just generate them,” Williams said. “P = NP is asserting that this is true for every single problem you can verify quickly — if you can verify it quickly, you can solve it quickly. So this just seems that just seems too good to be true.”That’s why most scientists assume that P ≠ NP. ETH provided evidence for that. It basically says that even the fastest computer algorithm needs exponentially more time to find a solution as the number of variables grow in a specific class of tricky logic puzzle.

OpenAI和Anthropic声称,它们的模型提出了能在“次指数”时间内解决这些谜题的算法,也就是说,速度比之前认为可能达到的更快。如果属实,它们或许已经证明EFT为假——用科学术语来说,就是将其驳倒——并且可能为通常能实现P = NP的算法开辟了一条道路。

The claims from OpenAI and Anthropic is that their models have come up with algorithms that solve those puzzles in “sub-exponential” time, meaning faster than the speeds previously thought possible. If true, they may have proven the EFT to be false — refuted it, in scientific terms — and maybe opened up a path for algorithms that generally perform P = NP.

“每位计算机科学家或许都应该对P = NP的可能性多给一点权重,但各人给的权重可能不同,”威廉姆斯说。“我确实认为,这在一定程度上让我们此前关于……那些困难的NP问题有多容易处理所抱有的许多直觉受到了质疑。我也认为这大概也不是最终答案。我不认为OpenAI的算法可能是你能得到的最优算法。”计算机科学家面前的工作威廉姆斯说,ETH的持久性使其在过去十年间被纳入许多科学论文,如果AI实验室声称已证明其错误的说法站得住脚,这些论文将需要重新审视。

“Every computer scientist should probably put a a little more weight on the plausibility of P = NP, but one’s weight may vary,” Williams said. “I do think that it kind of calls into question a lot of the intuitions that we thought we had about … how tractable [hard NP problems] are. I also think that this is probably not the final answer either. I don’t think that OpenAI’s algorithm could possibly be the best algorithm you can get.”The work ahead for computer scientists The durability of ETH has lead to it being included in many scientific papers over the past decade that will need to be revisited if the AI labs claims that they’ve proven it wrong holds up, Williams said.

“这在一定程度上正是我为什么当时请求或推动OpenAI支持就此举办一场会议——它将影响许多研究者的工作,我们需要弄清楚,好吧,除了理解这些算法之外,接下来会发生什么,我们需要理解,我们此前所拥有的基础应该是什么?”他说。

“This is partly why I was asking or pushing OpenAI to support a conference on this — it’s going to affect many researchers’ works, and we need to figure out, okay, what happens next besides understanding the algorithms, we need to understand, what should the foundations be that we had before?” he said.

在科学层面的担忧之前,首先存在网络安全问题。威廉姆斯表示,改进后的算法可能意味着依赖某些密钥长度的密码系统可能被视为已被破解。因此,他最先向OpenAI科学负责人丹·罗伯茨提出的问题之一,“就是他们是否检查过这是否会影响任何密码系统……现在是否有任何东西不安全?显然,他们检查过了,并且相当有信心这……并不意味着任何破解。”

Before scientific concerns, there are cybersecurity questions. Williams said that an improved algorithm could imply that cryptographic systems relying on certain key sizes could be considered broken. So one of the first questions he asked OpenAI science lead Dan Roberts “was if they had checked that that this affects any crypto systems … is anything insecure now? And apparently, they checked, and they were reasonably confident that this didn’t … imply any breaks.”

这种科学发现的新AI范式仍在发展之中,但威廉姆斯表示,尽管存在切实的担忧,他仍然乐观,尤其是对培养下一代科学家方面。作为一名从事高水平数学研究的计算机科学家,这或许使他比纯数学家更容易适应。

This new AI paradigm of scientific discovery is still a work in progress, but Williams says he is optimistic despite real concerns, particularly about training the next generation of scientists. Being a computer scientist who does high level math has perhaps made the adjustment easier for him than for pure mathematicians.

尽管如此,他说AI“正迫使人们对自己所做的工作更有雄心,并更深入地思考:好吧,如果我过去研究的所有东西现在对AI来说都是唾手可得的成果,我该如何提高我想提出的科学问题的门槛?”

Still, he says AI is “forcing people to be a little more ambitious about the kind of work that they do, and to think more deeply about okay, if all the things I used to work on are now low hanging fruit for AI, how can I raise the bar for the the kind of scientific questions I want to ask?”

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