巴克莱银行策略师预计，随着美元走强和利率波动加大，十国集团货币的波动率将上升并保持高位。
Plc strategists expect volatility in Group-of-10 currencies to rise and remain elevated as the dollar strengthens and interest-rate swings increase.
已实现波动率尚未赶上外汇期权中定价的较高水平，不过巴克莱预计这一差距将收窄。
Realized volatility has yet to catch up with the higher levels priced into currency options, though Barclays expects that gap to narrow.
巴克莱策略师马雷克·拉奇科和莱昂纳多·克里梅拉在周二的一份报告中写道，即便由于投资者已大举布局美元进一步上涨、美元涨势可能暂停，“我们也预计外汇波动率上升的概率只会在极短期内下降”。
Even if the dollar’s rally pauses because investors are already heavily positioned for further gains, “we would expect the probability of an increase in FX vol to drop only in the very near term,” Barclays strategists Marek Raczko and Leonardo Crimella wrote in a Tuesday note.
外汇波动率上升会给套利交易制造“不利环境”，这类交易旨在从利率差异中获利。自美国于2025年4月宣布大规模关税以来，这些策略此前一直回报强劲，但如今已开始表现落后。策略师表示，自8月底以来，大多数套利货币相对波动率的回报已经下降。
Higher currency volatility creates an “unfavorable environment” for carry trades, which seek to profit from differences in interest rates. The strategies have begun to underperform after delivering strong returns since the US announced sweeping tariffs in April 2025. Returns relative to volatility have fallen for most carry currencies since the end of August, the strategists said.
巴克莱预计外汇波动率的任何上升都将持续，并告诫不要在外汇大幅抛售后押注套利货币反弹。策略师表示：“我们认为追逐全球套利交易没有价值”，并警告新兴市场货币可能面临重新定价。
Barclays expects any increase in currency volatility to persist and cautioned against betting on a rebound in carry currencies following sharp selloffs. “We do not see value in chasing global carry trade,” the strategists said, warning that emerging-market currencies are likely to reprice.