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东盟与四方安全对话防长给菲律宾出了一道“外交考验”ASEAN and Quad defense chiefs give the Philippines a 'diplomatic test'

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东盟成员国国旗展出。东盟及重要伙伴的国防部长预计将在菲律宾中部城市宿务举行的会议上讨论中东冲突可能带来的外溢影响。这场冲突已搅动全球经济。© 路透社ASEAN member flags go on display. ASEAN and key partner defense chiefs are expected to discuss potential spillover from the Middle East conflict, which has roiled the global economy, during their meeting in the central Philippine city of Cebu. © Reuters

中国 Cebu,菲律宾 -- 东南亚成员国及主要伙伴国防部长周三启动了为期两天的会谈,美国、印度、日本和澳大利亚高级官员的出席引起人们对另一个政治阵营的关注。

CEBU, Philippines -- Defense chiefs from ASEAN member countries and key partners kicked off two days of talks on Wednesday, with the presence of top U.S., Indian, Japanese and Australian officials drawing attention to another political bloc.

与会人士包括美国五角大楼负责人彼得·赫格塞思、澳大利亚副总理理查德·马尔斯、日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎和印度国防部长拉贾·辛格。这四个国家均为四方安全对话机制成员,旨在抗衡中国在印太地区日益扩大的影响力。

High-profile attendees include U.S. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. The four countries are members of the Quad security grouping, meant to counter China's expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific.

东盟邀请的八位正式对话伙伴中,中国仅派一名国防联络官参加东盟国防部长会议(ADMM)。

They are among eight formal dialogue partners ASEAN invited to the gathering in the central Philippine city of Cebu. China is only sending a defense attache to the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM).

此次聚会正值中国与菲律宾在南海紧张局势加剧之际,两国海岸警卫队近期发生多次海上对峙,可能使长期存在的领土争端升级。马尼拉和北京之间也围绕北京对南海大部分区域的主权声索展开了激烈言辞交锋。

The gathering comes amid tensions between China and the Philippines regarding the South China Sea, with recent encounters involving coast guard vessels from both nations risking escalation in a long-simmering territorial row. Manila and Beijing have also traded verbal barbs over Beijing's aggressive claim to nearly the entire South China Sea.

菲律宾国家国防部周二在一份声明中表示,包括海洋执法和态势感知在内的区域安全问题为 Cebu 会谈的首要议题。

The Philippine Department of National Defense said in a statement on Tuesday that regional security issues, including maritime law enforcement and domain awareness, top the agenda in Cebu.

“通过其2026年东盟主席国身份,菲律宾致力于加强区域伙伴关系,保持有意义的对话,并推进实际国防合作,以支持一个和平、安全、稳定的印太地区。”该部门表示。

"Through its 2026 ASEAN chairship, the Philippines seeks to strengthen regional partnerships, sustain meaningful dialogue, and advance practical defense cooperation in support of a peaceful, secure, and stable Indo-Pacific region," the department said.

国防官员还将讨论关键水下基础设施的安全问题——包括海底光缆通信和海上能源电网——鉴于全球对蓄意破坏和其他故意干扰的担忧日益加剧。

The defense officials will also discuss the security of critical underwater infrastructure -- including undersea fiber-optic communications cables and offshore energy grids -- amid heightened global concerns over sabotage and other deliberate disruptions, the department added.

去年的柬埔寨-泰国边境冲突遗留下来的紧张局势也将得到讨论。菲律宾武装部队最近对柬埔寨班迭棉吉省的博恩特拉库恩边境口岸进行了实地考察,作为缓和地区局势努力的一部分。

Lingering tensions from last year's Cambodia-Thailand border clashes will also be discussed. The Armed Forces of the Philippines recently conducted a site visit to the Boeung Trakuon border crossing in Cambodia's Banteay Meanchey province as part of regional de-escalation efforts.

预计菲律宾将推动在12月前达成具有约束力的东盟-中国《南海行为准则》。正式谈判于2018年启动,但进展缓慢,在准则适用范围上仍存在分歧。

The Philippines is expected to press for a binding ASEAN-China Code of Conduct on the South China Sea by December. Negotiations that formally began in 2018 have dragged on, with differences remaining over where the code would apply.

拉筹伯大学全球安全中心研究员马克·马南坦表示,宿务会议最有意义的成果可能是“在海上安全、水下基础设施、信息共享和区域危机管理方面的务实合作”。

Mark Manantan, research fellow with La Trobe University's Centre for Global Security, said the most meaningful outcomes from Cebu will likely be "practical cooperation on maritime security, underwater infrastructure, information-sharing and regional crisis management."

“我不会对南海问题取得任何重大突破抱有过高期望,”他告诉《日经亚洲》。“东盟成员国有着不同的威胁认知和与中国的战略关系,这将制约东盟在采取更强硬的集体立场上能走多远。”

"I would temper expectations of any major breakthrough on the South China Sea," he told Nikkei Asia. "ASEAN members have different threat perceptions and strategic relationships with China, which will constrain how far the grouping can go in adopting stronger collective positions."

国防官员们预计还将讨论中东冲突的潜在外溢效应,这场冲突已扰乱全球经济。不过,马南坦指出,马尼拉“在深化与四方机制四个成员国安全关系的同时,面临着维护其作为公正区域召集人信誉的压力”。

Defense officials are also expected to discuss potential spillover from the Middle East conflict, which has roiled the global economy. Manantan noted, though, that Manila is "under pressure to maintain its credibility as an impartial regional convenor while deepening its security relationships" with the four Quad members.

“这将是一次重要的外交考验,”他说。“菲律宾必须证明,它与四方机制国家更紧密的靠拢不会削弱东盟的中心地位,也不会使东盟国防部长会议(ADMM)成为美中战略竞争的另一个舞台。”四方机制国防部长预计将受到关注,因为他们将举行双边和多边会谈。

"This will be an important diplomatic test," he said. "The Philippines must demonstrate that its closer alignment with Quad countries does not undermine ASEAN centrality or turn the ADMM into another arena for U.S.-China strategic competition." The Quad defense chiefs are expected to draw attention as they are to hold bilateral and multilateral talks.

马尼拉阿马多尔研究服务公司(Amador Research Services)首席执行官朱利奥·阿马多尔(Julio Amador)表示,他预计“四方安全对话”成员将利用东盟平台举行会晤。“我认为这至关重要,”他对《日经亚洲》(Nikkei Asia)说,“因为我们已经很长时间没有听到关于‘四方机制’的消息了。”国防部长们的聚会是在下个月峰会之前举行的,届时东盟领导人及其主要伙伴国领导人将在马尼拉会面。

Julio Amador, CEO of Amador Research Services in Manila, says he expects the Quad members to use the ASEAN platform to meet. "And I think that is crucial," he told Nikkei Asia, "because we have not heard about the Quad for the longest time." The defense chiefs are gathering ahead of a summit next month, when ASEAN leaders and those of its major partners will meet in Manila.

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