“我从未想挑起战争……我只是闭上眼胡乱挥舞，”麦莉·赛勒斯在《Wrecking Ball》（毁灭球）中唱道，这首分手情歌似乎在2013年响遍了美国每一家电台。尽管旋律略显单调，这首流行歌曲值得重温，可作为解读唐纳德·特朗普总统第二任期外交手腕的向导。显而易见，传统外交政策理论难以解释特朗普先生。这给任何角逐下一任美国总统的人都带来了风险与机遇并存的局面。
“INEVER MEANT to start a war…I just closed my eyes and swung,” sings Miley Cyrus in “Wrecking Ball”, a break-up ballad that seemed to play on every American radio in 2013. Though melodically a bit relentless, the pop song deserves a revival as a guide to the second-term statecraft of President Donald Trump. It is clear that traditional foreign-policy theories are a poor guide to Mr Trump. That offers both risks and opportunities to anyone running to be America’s next president.
本报此前曾指出过特朗普先生的“毁灭球”倾向，但在下届总统大选前的两年里，他对拆毁的渴望产生了具体影响。它打破了“钟摆理论”，这一曾经可靠的预测美国外交政策的工具。追溯至理查德·尼克松和1976年当选的吉米·卡特，大多数总统都曾（过度）纠正前任最大的缺陷。作为对“狡猾迪克”阴险现实主义的反动，卡特政府推行苦行僧般的说教。
This newspaper has noted Mr Trump’s wrecking-ball tendencies before, but in the two years before the next presidential election his yen for demolition has a specific impact. It has broken the “pendulum theory”, a once-reliable tool for predicting American foreign policy. Going back to Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter, who won election in 1976, most presidents have (over-)corrected for the biggest flaws of those who came before. In reaction to Tricky Dick’s devious realpolitik, the Carter presidency offered hairshirt moralising.
不久，选民感到美国不受尊重，遂选择了雷根式的乐观进取。当美国人厌倦了睿智但僵硬的老布什政治家时，他们选上了“感受你的痛苦”的比尔·克林顿。在“凭直觉行事”的小布什之后，美国人倾心于冷静理智的贝拉克·奥巴马，随后又对傲慢的精英感到厌倦，将国家押注在特朗普先生身上。
Before long, voters felt that America was disrespected and chose can-do Reaganite optimism. When Americans wearied of George H.W. Bush, a wise but stiff statesman, they elected feel-your-pain Bill Clinton. After shoot-from-the-hip George W. Bush, Americans fell for cool, cerebral Barack Obama, before souring on haughty brainiacs and betting the country on Mr Trump.
如今该理论不再好用，因为特朗普先生四处挥舞。在欺凌乌克兰与俄罗斯和解时，他是强权即公理的现实主义者；在委内瑞拉，他的代理人统治令19世纪帝国主义者也叹为观止；在中东，他鄙视政权更迭，直到发动那场笨拙的战争试图逼迫伊朗就范。他宣称共产主义威胁美国，却称中国领导人习近平为朋友。唯一的常数是打破现状的冲动。脑海中浮现特朗普先生骑在拆迁球上的画面（但愿不像赛勒斯女士的MV那样，这位80岁老人身上穿的不止马丁靴）。
Today the theory is less use, because Mr Trump swings every which way. When bullying Ukraine to settle with Russia, he is a might-makes-right realist. In Venezuela his rule-by-proxy would impress a 19th-century imperialist. In the Middle East he scorned regime change right up until his bungled war to bend Iran to his will. He declares that communism menaces America, but calls China’s party boss, Xi Jinping, his friend. The one constant is an impulse to smash the status quo. Cue mental images of Mr Trump atop a demolition ball (hopefully, unlike Ms Cyrus’s music video, the 80-year-old is wearing more than Dr. Martens boots).It is quite plausible that this president will be hooted from office after wrecking America’s good name (though AI dominance could create riches and clout).
（马滕靴）。这位总统极有可能在毁坏美国美誉后被喝倒彩赶下台（尽管人工智能霸权可能创造财富和影响力）。想要做相反事情的继任者将有大把选择。为了让外交政策的钟摆摆完整个弧度，第48任总统可以将国家利益置于个人私利之上。或者，他的继任者可以避免鲁莽发动战争，摒弃政权更迭。下一届政府可以致力于重建联盟，承诺帮助欧洲应对俄罗斯，协助亚洲盟友遏制中国。所有这些选项都将与特朗普主义的某个版本决裂。
Successors wishing to do the opposite will be spoiled for choice. For the foreign-policy pendulum to swing through a full arc, the 48th president could put the national interest ahead of personal profit. Alternatively his successor could avoid reckless wars and shun regime change. The next administration could work to rebuild alliances, pledging to help Europe confront Russia and friends in Asia deter China. All these options would break with some version of Trumpism.
对民主党而言，选择范围尤为宽广。无论特朗普的副总统万斯（J.D. Vance）是否清除竞争对手，还是面临竞争性初选，共和党都会警惕因否定特朗普而激怒“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）铁杆支持者。
The range of options is especially wide for Democrats. Whether Mr Trump’s vice-president, J.D. Vance, clears the field or faces a contested primary, Republicans will be wary of angering the MAGA faithful by repudiating Mr Trump.
因为民主党是一群自我放纵的人——作为一个政党，他们在政治上出奇地笨拙——他们正以一种自省式的争论来回应这一机遇时刻。与华盛顿外交政策重量级人物的交谈描述了两大阵营，一个是中间派，一个是进步左翼。他们一致认为，选民最关心国内和经济问题：有大量关于倾听职工家庭“餐桌议题”的讨论。然而，每个阵营也都知道，外部世界有一种闯入的习惯。
Because Democrats are a self-indulgent bunch and—for a political party—surprisingly bad at politics, they are responding to this moment of opportunity with a navel-gazing argument. Conversations with foreign-policy heavy-hitters in Washington describe two broad camps, one centrist and one on the progressive left. These agree that voters care most about domestic and economic issues: there is much talk of heeding the kitchen-table concerns of working families. Yet each camp knows, too, that the outside world has a habit of intruding.
应需求而动，民主党智库和前官员组成的代表团已开始与外国政府和政客会晤。这样一个由温和派和左倾民主党人组成的小组，本月访问了布鲁塞尔、伦敦和巴黎。这些特使传递的一个一致信息是：1945年后的旧秩序不会回归，无论谁获胜，特朗普主义的某些支柱——将美国人利益放在首位的言辞，以及对工业生产的关注——都将保留下来。
Responding to demand, delegations of Democratic thinkers and former officials have begun meeting foreign governments and politicians. One such group, involving both moderate and leftish Democrats, visited Brussels, London and Paris this month. A consistent message from these envoys is that the old post-1945 order is not coming back, and that some pillars of Trumpism—rhetoric about putting Americans first, and a focus on industrial production—will remain, whoever wins.
特朗普时代的关税具有分裂性。民调显示，选民将高物价归咎于关税。
Trump-era tariffs are divisive. Polls suggest that voters blame them for high prices.
中间派民主党人无法决定，是上任即废除大部分进口关税以刺激经济，还是暂时保留关税作为对贸易伙伴的筹码。左派主张保护受青睐的产业（这些产业将游说保留贸易壁垒），并倾向于关税收入。一群声音响亮的人主张禁止那些在拜登政府时期负责以色列政策的官员今后再任公职，认为他们沾染了加沙人的鲜血。跨党派共识存在，即拒绝给予以色列无条件支持。
Centrist Democrats cannot decide, though, whether it is better to juice the economy by scrapping most import taxes on taking office, or keep them temporarily as leverage over trade partners. The left believes in protected favoured industries (which will lobby to keep trade barriers) and likes tariff revenues.A loud group would bar from future service those Biden-era officials who worked on Israel policy, deeming them steeped in Gazan blood. A cross-party consensus exists to deny Israel uncritical support.
部分左派人士主张美国退出中东，仅对乌克兰提供谨慎支持。美国优先，现在如此，未来亦然中国引发尖锐分歧。中间派认为，美国正与中国进行一场决定时代的竞争，争夺在技术和世界秩序方面的全球领导地位。知名左翼人士称这种看法言过其实，并希望在气候变化等全球挑战上与中国合作。一些人天真地设想，中国会允许其工人与美国工人结盟，就全球最低工资达成一致。
Some on the left would pull America out of the Middle East and offer only cautious support for Ukraine. America First, now and alwaysChina sparks sharp disputes. Centrists believe that America is in an epochal contest with China for global leadership in technology and the world order. Prominent leftists call that overblown and hope to work with China on climate change and other global challenges. Some, ludicrously, imagine China will permit its workers to ally with America’s to agree on global minimum wages.
不幸的是，这些对中国抱有幻想者，因对人工智能安全和大型科技公司权力的日益焦虑，正被推向另一个方向。在政治上，没有任何民主党人能在不要求限制中国竞争对手的情况下，安全地呼吁放缓美国人工智能企业的发展。那将涉及对高端计算机芯片及其制造工具实施出口管制，这将激怒中国。
Unfortunately for such China dreamers, their growing anxiety about AI safety and the power of big tech leads in another direction. Politically no Democrat can safely call for the slowing of American AI firms without calling for their Chinese rivals to be held back, too. That would involve imposing export controls on high-end computer chips and tools to make them, which would enrage China.
在某些领域，民主党人可以与特朗普决裂，同时提供延续性的因素。精明的民主党人可以保留严格的边境管控——选民支持这一点——但承诺减少在美国境内执行移民法时的残酷做法，并对合法移民给予更热烈的欢迎。特朗普提出的国防预算如此庞大，以至于鹰派民主党人可以削减开支，而无需过多担心显得软弱。颠覆性的、未知的变革正在到来：关于破坏球，需了解的一点是，它们是反复无常的。
In some fields Democrats can break with Mr Trump while offering elements of continuity. Shrewd Democrats can keep tough border controls, which voters like, but promise less cruel enforcement of immigration laws inside America and a warmer welcome for legal migrants. His proposed defence budgets are so large that hawkish Democrats can spend less without much fear of seeming weak. Disruptive, unknowable change is coming: the thing to know about wrecking balls is that they are erratic.
更正（2026年10月27日）：本文原版错误地称理查德·尼克松直接在吉米·卡特之前任职。对此我们深表歉意。
Correction (October 27th 2026): The original version of this article said wrongly that Richard Nixon came directly before Jimmy Carter. We apologise for the error.