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白宫研究:许可法案将带来更高增长和工资White House Study Sees Higher Growth, Wages From Permitting Bill

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詹妮弗·A·德卢希报道——白宫经济顾问委员会的分析显示,一项旨在改革美国许可法律、加快能源项目开发的两党法案有望促进经济增长、降低电费并提高全国实际工资。

By Jennifer A. Dlouhy A bipartisan bill to remake US permitting laws and expedite the development of energy projects promises to boost economic growth, shave electric bills and increase real wages nationwide, according to analysis by the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

这一评估是在国会预计于下周中期选举后对该计划进行投票之前发布的。它反映了支持者的乐观态度,他们称该法案是千载难逢的机会,可以缩短政府批准石油管道、风电场和其他能源项目所需的时间。

The assessment was delivered ahead of a congressional vote on the plan expected after next week’s midterm elections. It reflects the optimism of supporters who’ve referred to the bill as a once-in-generation opportunity to shrink the time it takes the government to authorize oil pipelines, wind farms and other energy projects.

白宫经济顾问委员会表示,在许可改革措施下加快环境审查,美国经济每年有望获得0.28%至0.56%的增长提振,每年可能增加820亿至1640亿美元的产出。

The US economy stands to get a growth boost of between 0.28% and 0.56% annually with expedited environmental reviews under the permitting reform measure, the CEA said — with potentially $82 billion to $164 billion in additional output each year.

该法案是唐纳德·特朗普总统的首要优先事项,将带来全面变革,包括对《国家环境政策法》规定的政府审查设定截止期限。近年来,该法律要求的环境影响报告书平均需要4.2年才能完成,而且随着各机构寻求保护自身免受法律挑战,这些报告变得越来越长。

The bill, a top priority for President Donald Trump, would make sweeping changes, including by imposing deadlines on government reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act. Recent environmental impact statements mandated by the law have taken an average of 4.2 years to complete, and they’ve grown longer as agencies seek to protect themselves against legal challenges.

该委员会在其14页的报告中表示:“漫长的实施延迟会抑制投资,因为它们迫使投资者等待更长时间才能实现回报,导致基础设施投资不足、人均资本量下降,进而推高价格并降低产出。”

“Long implementation delays discourage investment because they force investors to wait longer for returns to be realized, resulting in insufficient infrastructure investment and a lower quantity of capital per worker, which leads to higher prices and lower output,” the council said in its 14-page report.

这一妥协方案由白宫官员与参议院关键民主党人斡旋达成,将缩小《国家环境政策法》审查的范围,削减受审查约束的决策类型,并设定截止期限。环境影响报告书必须在两年内完成,较小的环境评估必须在一年内完成。

The compromise package, brokered between White House officials and key Senate Democrats, would narrow the scope of NEPA reviews, pare the types of decisions subject to them and set deadlines. Environmental impact statements would have to be completed within two years, and smaller environmental assessments within a year.

此外,项目发起人还可以请求法院在新NEPA截止日期被错过时强制采取行动,各机构则必须在60天内决定申请是否准备好接受审查。

In addition, project sponsors could ask courts to compel action when new NEPA deadlines are missed, and agencies would be forced to decide if applications are ready for review within 60 days.

尽管该法案范围更广——包含限制法律挑战和加快电力项目接入全国电网的条款——但CEA的分析重点是该法案的NEPA审查截止日期。

Although the bill is broader — with provisions limiting legal challenges and accelerating the connection of power projects to the nation’s electric grids — the CEA analysis focused on the measure’s NEPA review deadlines.

CEA得出结论,缩短项目审查时间将为普通家庭每年带来高达637美元的额外实际工资,并称这一发现可能是保守估计。

Reducing project review timelines would translate to as much as $637 in additional real wages for the average household per year, the CEA concluded, describing the findings as likely conservative.

这并非CEA首次宣扬特朗普支持的政策带来重大好处。去年,该委员会曾预测他的议程将在未来十年内削减约11万亿美元的美国财政赤字——这一评估未得到大多数独立预算监督机构的认同。

It’s not the first time the CEA has touted major benefits from policies backed by Trump. Last year, the panel predicted his agenda would chop some $11 trillion from US fiscal deficits in the coming decade — an assessment unshared by most independent budget monitors.

最新评估称,由于发电项目能够更快获得批准和建设,美国人的电费预计将每年减少178至251美元。分析发现,在拟议要求下,税收收入也将增加多达280亿美元。

The latest assessment says that Americans’ electric bills would shrink by an estimated $178 to $251 annually thanks to the pending legislation, as power generation projects are more swiftly authorized and constructed. Tax revenue would also climb as much as $28 billion under the proposed requirements, the analysis found.

然而,实现这些好处需要时间,CEA预计“改革初期将出现约三年的空窗期,在此期间产出基本不变”。

However, realizing the benefits would take time, with the CEA anticipating “a roughly three-year dead zone at the start of the reform, during which output is essentially unchanged.”

“改革的效果是缓慢累积的,”该委员会表示。即使许可法案获得通过并颁布,“在改革时刻投入的投资仍需经历新的、更短的审查流程,才能成为生产性资本。”尽管该许可方案赢得了石油公司和可再生能源开发商的赞扬,但也招致了一些民主党人和环保组织的质疑,他们认为该方案偏向化石燃料,不利于先进的零排放技术。

“The reform’s effects build slowly,” the council said. Even if the permitting legislation is passed and enacted, “investment placed at the moment of reform still needs to navigate the new, shorter review before becoming productive capital.”While the permitting package has won praise from oil companies and renewable power developers, it’s drawn skepticism from some Democrats and environmental groups who argue it favors fossil fuels over advanced, emission-free technologies.

经济顾问委员会的分析指出,环境评估缓慢所带来的成本在经济各领域中的感受并不均衡。该委员会基于对2015年至2024年间发布的环境影响报告书所作的分析认定,采矿业、政府项目、铁路运输和公用事业企业是受《国家环境政策法》相关延误影响最大的领域。

The CEA analysis said the costs of slow environmental assessments have been felt unevenly across the economy. The council identified mining, government projects, rail transportation and utility ventures as among the most exposed to NEPA-related delays, based on an analysis of environmental impact statements published between 2015 and 2024.

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