欧洲正面临本采暖季首个持续的阴冷无风天气，导致可再生能源发电受挫，而此时电价已处于2022年以来的最高水平。
Europe is facing its first prolonged period of cool, cloudy and windless weather this heating season, squeezing renewable generation at a time when power prices are already at the highest levels since 2022.
阴天无风天气——即所谓的“暗淡风平期”（Dunkelflaute）——近年来变得更加常见，迫使欧洲电网更多地依赖昂贵的备用发电来源，如天然气。由于中东供应中断，化石燃料价格今年飙升，期货价格周三首次突破每兆瓦时100欧元，创下能源危机以来新高。
Bouts of cloudy and windless days — conditions known as “Dunkelflaute” — have become more common in recent years, forcing Europe’s power grids to rely more heavily on expensive backup generation sources such as natural gas. Prices of the fossil fuel have soared this year due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, with futures crossing €100 a megawatt-hour for the first time since the energy crisis on Wednesday.
据彭博预测，作为该地区最大可再生能源生产国之一，德国风力发电预计将在下周保持低位，日均发电量预计将维持在7吉瓦以下，不及今年以来平均水平的一半。
Wind generation in Germany, one of the region’s largest renewable power producers, is forecast to remain low through next week, with daily averages expected to stick below 7 gigawatts, according to Bloomberg forecasts. That’s less than half the average level seen so far this year.
可再生能源发电前景黯淡，推高德国周四日前电价至每兆瓦时300欧元以上，据Epex Spot数据，约为10月迄今平均水平的两倍。晚间高峰时段小时电价更超过500欧元。整个欧洲呈现类似态势，多个市场电价创下2022年12月以来新高。
The bleak outlook for renewables generation pushed German day-ahead power prices for Thursday above €300 a megawatt-hour, according to Epex Spot data, about double the average so far in October. Hourly rates are above €500 for the evening peak. A similar picture is taking shape across Europe, with many markets seeing the highest prices since December 2022.
这提前预示了当寒冷天气来临时，欧洲电力市场可能变得多么昂贵。这轮能源紧缩对居民电费的影响，将取决于气温以及此类“暗淡风平期”出现的频率。
It’s an early preview of just how expensive Europe’s power market could become when colder weather takes hold. The impact of the latest energy crunch on household power bills will depend both on temperatures and on how often Dunkelflaute periods like this one materialize.
这也凸显价格波动之快：德国电力周日交易价仅为每兆瓦时13欧元，仅几天之后便一度飙升至300欧元以上。
It also highlights just how quickly prices can swing: German power traded at just €13 a megawatt-hour on Sunday, before surging above €300 at times just days later.
据德国政府气象局（DWD）和MetDesk气象学家马修·多布森（Matthew Dobson）称，随着高压系统蔓延至西北欧和中欧，特别是德国和英国，风力发电量预计将在周日前大幅下降。与此同时，持续的云层和雾气预计将抑制太阳能发电。
Wind output is set to slump through Sunday as high pressure spreads across northwestern and central Europe, particularly in Germany and the UK, according to Germany’s government forecaster DWD and MetDesk meteorologist Matthew Dobson. At the same time, persistent cloud cover and fog are expected to curb solar generation.
可再生能源发电的低迷将在气温转凉推高取暖需求之际到来。预计这种高压天气模式将持续到下周，可能延长风力发电低迷的时间，尽管多布森表示前景尚不确定。
The lull in renewable generation is set to arrive as cooler temperatures lift heating demand. The high-pressure weather pattern is forecast to persist next week, potentially extending the wind slump, though Dobson said the outlook is uncertain.