欧洲天然气价格继续上涨，此前欧洲大陆的天然气库存降至历史最低水平，这加剧了人们对冬季价格冲击即将到来的担忧。
European natural gas prices continue to rise as the continent's stocks are depleted to record lows, fueling fresh fears of a looming winter price shock.
上周五，荷兰所有权转让中心（TTF）12月交割的天然气期货价格最新上涨4.9%，至每兆瓦时102.78欧元（合115美元），此前在周三已突破100欧元。
Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures for December delivery were last seen up 4.9% higher at 102.78 euros ($115) per megawatt-hour on Friday, having exceeded 100 euros on Wednesday.
根据Trading Economics的数据，这使得欧洲基准天然气合约本月上涨约36%，今年迄今上涨256%。
That puts Europe's benchmark gas contract up about 36% for the month, and 256% for the year, according to Trading Economics data.
上周五的飙升使欧洲天然气价格达到近四年来的最高水平，当时欧洲大陆正努力应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰造成的能源成本飙升。2022年12月5日，荷兰TTF期货价格达到每兆瓦时139欧元，此前在当年8月曾飙升至每兆瓦时339欧元。
Friday's jump puts Europe's gas prices at their highest level in almost four years, when the continent was grappling with soaring energy costs caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Dutch TTF futures hit 139 euros per MWh on Dec. 5, 2022, having earlier spiked to 339 euros per MWh in August that year.
对冬季气温的担忧笼罩着欧洲天然气供应。在价格不断上涨之际，人们再次警告称，欧洲大陆对更冷的冬季准备不足。
Winter temperature fears loom over Europe's gas supplies Rising prices come amid renewed warnings that the continent is ill-prepared for a colder winter.
今年夏天欧洲破纪录的热浪，加上潜在的“超级”厄尔尼诺天气现象，令大宗商品市场感到不安。
Record-breaking heatwaves in Europe this summer, coupled with a potential 'supersized' El Niño weather phenomenon, have rattled commodity markets.
目前欧洲的天然气储存水平约为75%，为2011年有记录以来的最低季节性水平，原因是霍尔木兹海峡的航运中断阻碍了夏季补充库存的努力。
Natural gas storage in Europe now stands at about 75%, its lowest seasonal level since recordkeeping began in 2011, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have hampered efforts to replenish stocks over the summer.
贝莱德分析师在10月27日的一份报告中表示，随着库存耗尽，更冷的冬季可能会推高欧洲能源价格，今年迄今已上涨170%。天然气约占欧盟能源发电量的六分之一。
With stocks depleted, a colder winter could push European energy prices, already up 170% this year, even higher, BlackRock analysts said in a note Oct. 27. Natural gas makes up about one-sixth of the EU's energy generation.
欧洲押注于反常的温暖天气。麦格理大宗商品策略主管彼得·泰勒表示，欧洲基本上是在押注暖冬，这一立场与厄尔尼诺气候事件有关。泰勒解释说，尽管英国和欧洲在厄尔尼诺现象期间经常出现一些最冷的冬季寒潮。
Europe bets on unseasonable warmth Peter Taylor, head of commodity desk strategy at Macquarie, said Europe is essentially betting on a warm winter, a stance tied to the El Niño climate event. That's despite the U.K. and Europe having often seen some of the coldest winter snaps during El Niño events, Taylor explained.
泰勒在10月的一次大宗商品圆桌会议上对包括CNBC在内的媒体表示：“危险在于我们遇到一个温和或寒冷的冬天。我们目前的情况实际上需要一个相当温暖的冬天才能安然度过。”
"The danger is that we have a mild or cold winter. We're in a situation where we actually need quite a warm winter to make it through unscathed," Taylor told media, including CNBC, at an October commodities roundtable.
“我们现在的情况是，如果确实遇到寒冷天气，我们可能会看到欧洲与亚洲争夺天然气分子，这可能会带来很大的（价格）上行空间。”欧洲和亚洲大部分地区比美国更容易受到潜在天然气价格冲击的影响，而美国则受益于国内页岩气和液化天然气生产。
"We're in a situation now where, if we do get that cold weather, we're potentially seeing Europe compete with Asia for molecules, and that has potentially a lot of [price] upside." Europe and much of Asia are more heavily exposed to potential gas price shocks than the U.S., which benefits from both domestic shale and LNG production.
贝莱德表示：“能源冲击的影响并不均衡。我们估计，它使欧洲的GDP减少了约0.5%，而美国仅减少了0.1%。这些差异可能会变得更加明显。”
"The energy shock has uneven effects," BlackRock said. "We estimate it's reduced GDP by about 0.5% in Europe, compared with just 0.1% in the U.S. Those differences could become even more pronounced."