欧洲天然气价格重拾涨势，突破每兆瓦时100欧元，因市场担忧美国可能恢复对伊朗的军事行动，从而可能延长该地区的供应中断。
European natural gas resumed gains above €100 a megawatt-hour amid concerns the US may resume combat operations against Iran, potentially prolonging supply disruptions in the region.
基准期货在前一交易日短暂回落后上涨，并有望实现约40%的月度涨幅。这是自伊朗战争爆发后不久的三月以来最大的单月涨幅。
Benchmark futures rose after a brief retreat in the previous session, and were on track for a monthly advance of around 40%. That’s the biggest such increase since March, just after the Iran war began.
多重因素共同推动了本月涨势，包括气温下降和取暖需求上升，交易商已开始动用本就处于季节性低位的冬季燃料库存。地缘政治风险进一步带来上行压力，市场愈发担忧美国可能在下周中期选举后重启对伊朗的打击。
A number of factors converged to drive this month’s rally, including colder temperatures and rising heating demand, as traders have begun drawing on winter fuel inventories that are already at a seasonal low. Geopolitical risks have added further upward pressure, with concerns mounting that the US could restart strikes on Iran after next week’s midterm elections.
据《华尔街日报》报道，周四一名美国高级指挥官向总统唐纳德·特朗普汇报了军事选项。报告发布后，油价周五也出现上涨。
On Thursday, a top US commander briefed President Donald Trump on military options, the Wall Street Journal reported. Oil also rose on Friday after the report.
与此同时，中东液化天然气出口——在冲突爆发前约占全球产能的五分之一——尽管本月有所回升，仍远低于战前水平，使市场面临该地区天然气流量完全中断的风险。
Meanwhile, Middle Eastern LNG exports — which accounted for about a fifth of global capacity before the conflict started — remain well below prewar levels despite an uptick this month, leaving the market exposed to the risk of a complete halt in flows from the region.
Energy Aspects Ltd.分析师在一份报告中表示，低天然气库存和地缘政治风险“可能会继续推动近月合约创出新高，因为对中东局势可能升级的担忧加剧”。他们预计严重中断将持续到2027年第一季度。
Low gas inventories and geopolitical risks “will likely continue to push the front-month contract into new highs as concerns over potential escalation in the Middle East mount,” Energy Aspects Ltd. analysts said in a note. They expect heavy disruptions through the first quarter of 2027.
欧洲的燃料储存设施仅装满75%，远低于往年同期的正常水平，而最大经济体德国的库存水平不足62%。周四，一名意大利政府官员抨击德国今年夏天未能充分补充其天然气库存，认为这一缺口正在推高整个欧洲的价格。
Europe’s fuel storage sites are only 75% full, well below usual levels for the time of year, and the largest economy Germany has levels of less than 62%. On Thursday, an Italian government official lashed out at Germany for failing to sufficiently replenish its natural gas inventories this summer, arguing the shortfall is pushing up prices across Europe.
德国联邦网络局局长克劳斯·穆勒周五上午在接受当地电台采访时表示：“我们本来也希望储气水平能再高一些。”他补充说，尽管如此，德国在能源供应来源多元化方面仍取得了进展。
“We, too, would have liked to see gas storage levels a little higher,” the president of Germany’s Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, said Friday morning in an interview with local radio. He added that the country has nevertheless made progress in diversifying its energy supply sources.
彭博新能源财经预计，液化天然气价格高企将在11月抑制南亚和东南亚等一些对价格敏感地区的需求。欧洲可能仍不得不为燃料货物支付高价，尤其是在寒潮和低风期推高燃料需求的时候。
BloombergNEF expects elevated LNG costs to cut demand in some price-sensitive regions in November, such as South and Southeast Asia. Europe might still have to pay up for fuel cargoes, especially when cold spells and periods of low winds boost fuel demand.
截至阿姆斯特丹时间上午9点36分，荷兰12月期货价格上涨3.4%，至每兆瓦时101.25欧元。
Dutch futures for December traded up 3.4% at €101.25 a megawatt-hour by 9:36 a.m. in Amsterdam.