内幕消息 尽管本次中期选举中民主党在政治形势上占据优势，但该党仍未能激发低投票率选民的热情。因此，当美国最大的酒店业工会的挨户走访人员在摇摆州展开活动时，他们不会先提及该党。
The Scoop Even with the political wind at their backs for this midterm, Democrats still aren’t sparking enthusiasm among low-propensity voters. So when doorknockers for the country’s largest hospitality union fan out in swing states, they don’t start by mentioning the party.
拥有全国超过30万名会员的UNITE HERE工会，要求其组织者在寻求对民主党候选人的支持之前，先关注选民的个人财务状况。在得克萨斯州，该工会的一名挨户走访人员可能会提及去年希尔顿美洲-休斯顿酒店的罢工，然后再转而告诉选民，民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科和州长候选人吉娜·希诺霍萨支持工人争取更高工资的运动。
UNITE HERE, which boasts more than 300,000 members across the country, tells its organizers to zero in on voters’ personal financial situations before seeking support for Democratic candidates. In Texas, a doorknocker for the union might reference last year’s Hilton Americas-Houston hotel strike before pivoting to telling a voter that Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa supported workers’ drive for a higher wage.
“我们发现这更有效，因为人们普遍对民主党感到冷漠，”UNITE HERE主席格温·米尔斯对《塞马弗》表示。“我们谈论工人和工薪阶层通过工会改变生活的能力，然后再通过投票来实现。这是进入选举话题的不同角度。”这表明，民主党在全国范围内仍需努力重建其品牌，同时也揭示了选民在选举日前夕听到的关于主导全国情绪的钱包问题的信息。
“That’s more what we find effective, because there is an apathy about Democrats in general,” Gwen Mills, UNITE HERE’s president, told Semafor. “We talk about the agency that workers and working-class people have to change their lives through their union, and then through voting. That’s a different angle into having a conversation about the election.”It’s a sign that Democrats still have work to do nationally to rebuild their brand, and it also reveals the messages voters are hearing right before Election Day on pocketbook issues that are dominating the national mood.
UNITE HERE在内华达州影响力巨大，该酒店业工会在过去二十年中一直是民主党投票动员机器的重要组成部分。它仍在“银州”活动，致力于将州长办公室从共和党控制下夺回，并保住该州的三个摇摆众议院选区。
UNITE HERE is well-known for its heft in Nevada, where the hospitality union has played a massive role in Democrats’ turnout machine over the past two decades. It’s still playing in the Silver State, working to flip back the governor’s office from GOP control and hold the state’s three battleground House districts.
该工会还致力于将其经济信息传递到亚利桑那州、加利福尼亚州、科罗拉多州、佛罗里达州、缅因州、密歇根州、密西西比州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州和德克萨斯州等更广泛种族群体的超过一百万个家庭。UNITE HERE将其说服项目聚焦于接触低投票率选民——这个往往左右选举的群体——通过谈论工人议题来争取支持。
The union is also working to bring its economic message to more than a million households across a broader array of races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. UNITE HERE has focused its persuasion project on reaching low-propensity voters — the bloc that often swings elections — by talking about workers’ issues.
民调人士发现，低投票率选民常常认为系统对他们“操纵不公”，并且对两大政党都高度怀疑。
Low-propensity voters, pollsters have found, often think the system is “rigged” against them and are highly skeptical of both parties.
“我们正在与那些真正感到被政治体系抛弃的人交谈，”米尔斯说。“他们是工人阶级选民。而且我认为，无论他们是投给特朗普还是拜登，还是投给民主党或共和党，他们都会说：‘这个体系正在辜负我们。’”这场活动让UNITE HERE走到了一些不寻常的地方，比如佛罗里达州第27选区，共和党众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔在2024年以20个百分点的优势获胜。
“We’re talking to people who really feel left behind by the political system,” Mills said. “They’re working-class voters. And I think they see, whether they voted for Trump or Biden, right, or for Democrats or Republicans, they’re like: ‘This system is failing us.’”The campaign is taking UNITE HERE to unusual places, like Florida’s 27th District, which GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar won by 20 points in 2024.
该工会在那里为民主党人埃利奥特·罗德里格斯开展西班牙语挨家挨户拉票活动，在南佛罗里达州这是一场艰苦的战斗，因为那里共和党的品牌仍然很有号召力。
The union is running a Spanish-language canvass there in support of Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, a tough slog in South Florida where the Republican brand is still strong.
但尽管该工会希望赢得那场竞选和其他摇摆席位，其在佛罗里达州的工作不仅仅关乎中期选举。米尔斯描述了一种希望，即抢先应对美国政治中已经发生的更大的人口结构变化。
But though the union wants to win that race and other battleground seats, its work in Florida isn’t just about the midterms. Mills described a hope to get out ahead of larger demographic shifts already underway in American politics.
“2030年人口普查发生时，选举人团将出现变化……国会席位将从纽约州和加利福尼亚州等州转移到佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州等州，实际上遍及整个日光带，”米尔斯说。“我们当然专注于在这些地方建设基础设施。”不同意见 该酒店业工会并不明确支持某一党派，并表示未来选举中可能会支持亲工会的共和党人。但今年不是。
“When the Census happens in 2030, you’re going to have a shift in the electoral college … [moving] seats in Congress out of states like New York and California, into states like Florida and Texas, and really across the Sun Belt,” Mills said. “We’re certainly focused on building the infrastructure in those places.”Room for Disagreement The hospitality union is not explicitly partisan and said that it could support pro-union Republicans in a future election. But not this year.
“过去，我们当然支持共和党人，未来也可能支持，”米尔斯说。“但此刻尤为关键，那些不敢站出来反对这些正在通过的残酷政策的人，不能被原谅。”伯吉斯的观点是，数百万美元的广告投入只能在触达选民方面起到有限作用。真正在幕后做说服选民艰苦工作的，是像UNITE HERE这样的挨户挨户走访的人员，以及美国繁荣组织等保守组织。
“In the past, we certainly supported Republicans, and we could in the future,” Mills said. “But there’s a particular moment here, and folks who aren’t standing up to the brutality of these policies that are being passed don’t get excused.”Burgess’s view Millions of dollars of ad buys can only do so much to reach voters. It’s doorknockers like those working for UNITE HERE — and conservative organizations like Americans for Prosperity — that are doing the hard work behind the scenes to persuade voters.
没有单一因素会起决定性作用，但如果说今年摇摆选民有一个典型，那就是这个工会试图触达的那些人：厌恶两大政党的低投票率选民。
No one factor will be decisive, but if there’s an archetype of this year’s swing voter, it’s the folks this union is trying to reach: low-propensity voters who hate both parties.
据Semafor的布伦丹·鲁伯里报道，UNITE HERE以及多个州的AFL-CIO及其附属组织，正在几个州针对摇摆选民推行“与美国劳动者的契约”，这是一个民粹主义经济纲领，由它们独立于全国AFL-CIO制定。
Notable UNITE HERE and state AFL-CIOs and their affiliates are targeting swing voters in several states with the “Contract with Working Americans,” a populist economic platform they devised independently of the national AFL-CIO, Semafor’s Brendan Ruberry reports.