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全球债券发行规模创纪录,人工智能借贷热潮推波助澜Global Bond Sales Shatter Record, Fueled by AI Borrowing Binge

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一名技术人员在印第安纳州新卡莱尔的一个人工智能数据中心工作。摄影师:诺亚·伯杰/盖蒂图片社A technician works at an AI data center in New Carlisle, Indiana. Photographer: Noah Berger/Getty Images

全球债券发行规模飙升至历史新高,主要得益于处于人工智能热潮前沿的科技巨头以惊人速度举借资金。

Global bond sales have soared to an all-time high, catapulted by breakneck borrowing from the tech juggernauts at the forefront of the AI boom.

据彭博汇编的数据显示,金融机构、企业和政府今年以来通过投资级债券和垃圾债券发行累计筹资 6.61 万亿美元,较去年同期增长 15%,在距离年底尚余两个月之际已超越 2025 年的全年纪录。

Financial firms, companies and governments have raised a combined $6.61 trillion through investment-grade and junk-bond sales so far this year, up 15% from the same period a year earlier and eclipsing 2025’s record with two months still to go, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

数据显示,云计算巨头和数据中心开发商单方面就发行了近 3680 亿美元债券,是一年前的六倍多。该群体占据了今年以来借贷增量的约三分之一,增速超过所有其他非金融行业,其新增债务规模是政府部门的两倍。

Cloud-computing giants and data-center developers alone sold almost $368 billion in debt, more than six times as much as a year ago, the data show. The group has accounted for about a third of the increase in borrowing so far this year, outpacing every other non-financial sector and adding twice as much incremental debt as governments.

这一数字凸显了人工智能基建在全球债务市场中日益核心的地位,加剧了在全球收益率上升、各国政府寻求为不断扩大的预算赤字融资之际的资本竞争。

The figure illustrates the increasingly central role the buildout in artificial intelligence is playing in global debt markets, intensifying competition for capital as yields rise globally and governments seek to fund widening budget deficits.

在人工智能时代,美国超大规模云服务商已崛起为主导性借款人。亚马逊公司今年以来跃居全球最大发行人第四位,仅次于德国、欧盟和意大利——德意两国总额包含政府背景借款主体——并位居法国和英国之前。这家电商巨头也已成为最大的企业借款人,紧随其后的是 Alphabet 公司。

In the AI era, US hyperscalers have emerged as dominant borrowers. Amazon.com Inc. vaulted into fourth place among the world’s largest issuers so far this year, trailing only Germany, the European Union and Italy — with the German and Italian totals including government-backed borrowers — and ranking ahead of France and the UK. The e-commerce giant has also become the largest corporate borrower, followed by Alphabet Inc.

在美国,今年十大企业发行人中有五家为科技公司,而通常主导企业借贷的金融机构,其发行量占比已降至至少十年来的最低水平。

In the US, five of the 10 largest corporate issuers this year are technology firms, while financial institutions — which typically dominate borrowing among the group — have seen their share of volume fall to the lowest level in at least a decade.

点击此处查看彭博新闻的AI债务追踪器。“一年之内,全球最大市场的顶端发生了根本性的重新排序,”摩根大通投资级融资全球联席主管约翰·塞尔维迪亚在接受采访时表示。“围绕AI出现了一个新的长期主题。”AI基础设施的支出规模前所未有。据彭博行业研究追踪,一批超大规模云服务商和所谓的“新云”公司预计将在未来三年内投资近4.5万亿美元。

Click here for Bloomberg News’ AI Debt Tracker“In one year, we’ve had a fundamental reordering at the top of the biggest global market, John Servidea, global co-head of Investment Grade Finance at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in an interview. “You’ve got a new secular theme around AI.” The scale of spending on the AI infrastructure is unprecedented. A group of hyperscalers and so-called neocloud firms tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence is expected to invest almost $4.5 trillion over the next three years.

这轮借贷热潮并非一帆风顺。投资者最初争相抢购与AI基础设施相关的债务,但随着他们消化大量巨额发行、并对过度支出以及该技术实现利润回报的时间表日益担忧,他们有时会选择退缩并要求更高的回报。在美国,数据中心开发商为融资项目向投资者提供的投资级债券收益率高达7.2%,垃圾债收益率高达10%。

The borrowing spree hasn’t been without hiccups. Investors, who initially rushed to snap up debt tied to AI infrastructure, have at times pulled back and demanded greater compensation as they digest a glut of jumbo offerings and grow increasingly worried about excessive spending and the timeline for profit payoffs from the technology. In the US, data-center developers have offered investors yields as high as 7.2% on investment-grade bonds and 10% on junk debt to finance their projects.

CoreWeave公司发行的债券本月早些时候大幅下跌,原因是市场对其不断攀升的债务负担感到担忧,该公司的信用风险飙升,令整个信贷市场的投资者感到不安。CoreWeave是一家投机级公司,为Meta等企业提供算力。就连Meta平台公司和甲骨文公司等蓝筹超大规模云服务商的违约保护成本也大幅上升。

Bonds issued by CoreWeave Inc. — a speculative-grade firm that provides computing capacity for the likes of Meta — sold off sharply earlier this month due to woes about its mounting debt load, with the company’s credit risk surging and rattling investors across credit markets. The cost of protecting against a default even by blue-chip hyperscalers including Meta Platforms Inc. and Oracle Corp. has also surged.

整体信贷环境也在恶化,高油价、中东地缘政治紧张局势升级以及法国主权债券遭抛售,都在打压市场情绪。近期部分美国国债收益率攀升至2002年以来的最高水平,推高了企业寻求融资投资或债务再融资的借贷成本。

The overall credit backdrop has also deteriorated, with high oil prices, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a selloff in French sovereign bonds all weighing on market sentiment. Some Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2002 recently, raising borrowing costs for firms seeking to fund investments or refinance debt.

此外,全球各国央行在进入2027年时,货币政策环境可能进一步收紧,以遏制通胀。在持续的价格压力背景下,国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃本月敦促各国央行保持“审慎的鹰派倾向”。花旗新兴市场经济主管蔡真真上周在该行的一档播客节目中表示:“各国央行正意识到,在这一轮人工智能周期中,资本需求确实出现了某种程度的跃升,这给R-star带来了上行压力。”所谓的R-star,是指既不刺激也不抑制增长的“中性”利率。

What’s more, global central banks are likely to head into 2027 with even tighter monetary-policy settings to keep inflation at bay. Against a backdrop of persistent pricing pressures, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva urged central banks this month to keep a “prudently hawkish bias.”“Central banks are realizing there’s really a kind of step-up in demand for capital on this AI cycle, and that’s putting upward pressure on R-star,” Johanna Chua, head of Emerging Markets Economics, said last week on a Citi podcast. The so-called R-star is the “neutral” interest rate that neither spurs nor restricts growth.

加拿大皇家银行环球资产管理公司投资组合经理尼尔·孙表示,尽管超大规模云服务商的融资压力造成了一些短期“供给消化不良问题”,但人工智能资本支出的前景依然强劲,为持续的大规模借贷奠定了基础。

While hyperscalers’ funding pressure has created some short-term “supply indigestion issues,” the outlook for AI capital spending remains robust, laying the groundwork for continued heavy borrowing, according to Neil Sun, a portfolio manager at RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

“从根本上说,他们的情况还不错,”孙在接受采访时说,并补充称对算力的需求“依然非常强劲”。他表示,尽管利率环境更高,他预计人工智能投资将持续到2027年。

“Fundamentally, they’re doing just fine,” Sun said in an interview, adding demand for computing capacity “remains very strong.”He said he expects the AI investment to continue into 2027, despite the higher-rate environment.

今年的债券发行仍有增长空间,摩根士丹利预计11月将出现大量借贷,尤其是在过去两个月活动起伏不定之后。

Offerings still have room to grow this year, with Morgan Stanley calling for heavy borrowing in November, particularly after choppy activity over the past two months.

摩根士丹利欧洲、中东和非洲地区投资级银团联席主管马泰奥·贝内代托表示:“11月实际上是一年中企业发行最繁忙的月份之一。这仍是提前融资的机会,尤其是对那些正在进行并购或资本支出、又无法承受等待的企业而言。”

“November is actually one of the busiest months for corporate issuance in the year,” Matteo Benedetto, EMEA co-head of investment-grade syndicate at Morgan Stanley said. “This is still an opportunity for prefunding, especially for corporates that are doing M&A or capex and don’t have the benefit of being able to wait.”

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