Sen. Lisa Murkowski endorsed a Democrat for governor this week as she ponders her own reelection decision. Amid speculation about her retirement, political operatives and longtime watchers say it’s not necessarily a clue as to what she’s thinking.

Murkowski backed Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to lead her home state Tuesday, saying that he would “serve all Alaskans, regardless of party.”Her decision is a break with her party, which has three candidates in the four-way ranked choice general election next week. President Donald Trump has backed GOP candidate Bernadette Wilson to succeed outgoing GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy.

It could be read by some as an indication that Murkowski might be contemplating retirement rather than seeking reelection in 2028 — or positioning herself to win by appealing across the aisle, as she has done in the past. Trump has repeatedly lashed out at the senator and could rally Alaska Republicans to oust her.

But back home, her move to endorse a Democrat who is promising to work productively with state legislators of both parties is being viewed as further evidence of her well-known independent streak rather than tea leaves to be read about her own race.

“It’s certainly no surprise. Lisa is Lisa. She doesn’t make decisions based on party,” said Art Hackney, a GOP operative in Alaska running a super PAC for Sen. Dan Sullivan. “She’s looked at the four candidates and decided JKT is the best choice.”

Longtime Alaska political aide and journalist Larry Persily also said in an interview that he does not think Murkowski’s endorsement is a “signal for 2028.”

He called the move “the indication of her frustration with the current [Dunleavy] administration,” adding that she “doesn't want to see anything close to a repeat. I think it's a realization that her voice matters in Alaska.”She hasn’t made a decision about running for reelection and has said little publicly about her thinking. Spokespeople for Murkowski did not respond to a question Wednesday about her endorsement or her 2028 decision.

It’s not the first time Murkowski has endorsed a Democrat. While she is backing Sullivan in his current battleground Senate race, she previously backed his Democratic rival, then-Rep. Mary Peltola, in the at-large House race. Murkowski’s father, former U.S. senator and former Gov. Frank Murkowski, is also backing Kreiss-Tomkins.

Further evidence of Lisa Murkowski’s independence was on display this week surrounding the 2026 Senate race — and allegations that Democrats schemed to put a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot to confuse voters.

After the Justice Department filed a lawsuit last week to block certification, citing the two Sullivans on the ballot, Murkowski pushed back in a statement, saying “Alaskans don’t need any help voting for their preferred candidates.”

Then, after the New York Times published evidence Wednesday that Peltola’s campaign and national Democratic operatives had knowledge of the plans, Murkowski spoke out again to say Peltola and her campaign needed to share the “honest truth” about “a pattern of lies and coverups and a culture of deception that belongs nowhere in our elections or among our elected officials.”Trump, meanwhile, has renewed his attacks on Murkowski, calling her the “worst senator” in a Truth Social post over the weekend following her criticism of the DOJ lawsuit.

Murkowski and Trump are also on opposite sides when it comes to Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, which eliminates traditional party primaries. Trump has blasted the state’s system as “corrupt,” pointing to the three Republicans on the ballot in the governor’s race compared to one Democratic candidate.

Alaska is one of only two states that use ranked choice voting statewide, and there is a referendum on this year’s ballot to repeal it. Some have credited the system for helping Murkowski defeat a challenger from her right in 2022.

Though Murkowski votes with her party most of the time, she’s been willing to break with the administration on key foreign and domestic policy questions and has voted against some of Trump’s Cabinet picks, including Todd Blanche’s nomination earlier this year to be attorney general.

Some Senate Republicans have privately questioned if Murkowski will run for reelection and, if she does, whether Trump will recruit another Republican to run against her. Murkowski defeated a Trump-backed challenger in 2022 after already pulling off a legendary electoral feat in 2010 by losing the GOP primary then winning the general election via a write-in campaign.

Heading into a 2028 race, Dunleavy has garnered months of speculation as a potential Senate candidate. But he has been dogged by low approval ratings and poor relations with other Alaska Republicans.

Murkowski said this week she has “found fault with the Dunleavy administration” and that it had “federal money on the table.”After Fox News reported last year Dunleavy would challenge Murkowski, a spokesperson for the governor said in a statement that Dunleavy was “focused on moving Alaska forward during the remainder of his second term.”Spokespeople for Dunleavy did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday about Murkowski’s fresh criticism of his administration.

National Republican political operatives who were granted anonymity to speak candidly speculated that Dunleavy could be more interested in a potential Cabinet spot than a Senate seat if he decides to stay in politics.

Trump has repeatedly praised Dunleavy, including at a Sept. 30 White House event where he said he was a “great governor and a friend of mine.”