俄罗斯今年似乎升级了其在欧洲的影子战争。欧洲官员指称，俄罗斯战斗机曾偏离航线进入波兰、立陶宛和爱沙尼亚领空，试探反应时间。疑似俄罗斯无人机在波兰、芬兰和波罗的海国家上空被击落。莫斯科还被指在黑海制造麻烦。
Russia appears to have escalated its shadow war in Europe this year. European officials have alleged that Russian fighter planes have veered inside Polish, Lithuanian and Estonian airspace, testing reaction times. Suspected Russian drones have been downed over Poland, Finland and the Baltic states. And Moscow has been accused of bringing trouble to the Black Sea.
在10月的两次独立行动中，乌克兰指责俄罗斯使用空中和水面无人机，在欧盟和北约成员国保加利亚的领海之外击沉了四艘货船，这显然是在警告：乌克兰通过北约领海的粮食出口可能无法长久安全。
In two separate operations in October, Ukraine accused Russia of using aerial and surface drones to sink four cargo ships just outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, a European Union and NATO member, in an apparent warning that Ukraine’s grain exports through NATO territorial waters may not be safe for long.
俄罗斯和白俄罗斯还被指试图通过让边界显得不确定来破坏波罗的海国家的稳定。
Russia and Belarus have also been accused of trying to destabilise the Baltic states by making their borders appear fluid.
“在白俄罗斯一侧边境，蒙面且极有可能携带武器的人员护送并试图将一批批非法移民推入拉脱维亚，”拉脱维亚驻希腊大使伊耶娃·切斯涅采对半岛电视台说。“那些人对拉脱维亚士兵和边防人员发出了威胁。同一天在另一起事件中，蒙面人员越过边界进入拉脱维亚领土并实施蓄意破坏。边境基础设施遭到损坏，监控设备被拆除。”拉脱维亚媒体报道称，试图从拉脱维亚边境跑回的寻求庇护者和无证移民被白俄罗斯当局围捕，并再次被推向拉脱维亚。
“Masked and most likely armed individuals on the Belarus side of the border escorted and attempted to push groups of illegal migrants into Latvia,” Ieva Cesniece, Latvia’s ambassador to Greece, told Al Jazeera. “Those individuals expressed threats to Latvian soldiers and border guards. On the same day in a separate incident, masked individuals crossed into Latvian territory and carried out deliberate sabotage. Bborder infrastructure was damaged, and surveillance equipment was removed.”Latvian media have reported that asylum seekers and undocumented migrants who tried to run back from the Latvian border were rounded up by Belarusian authorities and pushed towards Latvia again.
切斯涅采将俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争与其在欧洲的影子战争直接联系起来。
Cesniece drew a direct link between the Russian war in Ukraine and its shadow war in Europe.
“俄罗斯在乌克兰显得越弱，就越会试探我们的韧性，试图削弱北约和欧盟的决心以及对乌克兰的支持，”她说。
“The weaker Russia appears in Ukraine, the more it tests our resilience, trying to weaken NATO and EU resolve and support for Ukraine,” she said.
随着欧洲各国政府警告俄罗斯在欧洲大陆的影子战争即将升级，专家表示，欧盟需要采取更多措施来威慑俄罗斯并保卫自身。
As European governments warned of an imminent escalation of a Russian shadow war on the continent, experts said the bloc needs to do more to deter Russia as well as defend itself.
“保护关键基础设施、加强情报服务、防范袭击都至关重要，但威慑不仅仅是防止下一次事件发生，”乌克兰独立反腐败委员会联合创始人兼负责人奥莱娜·特雷古布表示。“威慑是要让你的对手相信，继续这些行动将变得代价过高。而我不确定俄罗斯目前是否认为这些代价足够高。”作为追踪资金流向的专家，她认为欧洲各国政府在识别行动背后的网络、揭露指挥结构、破坏其融资和后勤以及施加后果方面做得还不够。与此同时，俄罗斯的战争在实地进展不顺。
“Protecting critical infrastructure, strengthening intelligence services and preventing attacks are essential, but deterrence is about more than preventing the next incident,” said Olena Tregub, cofounder and head of Ukraine’s Independent Anti-Corruption Commission. “It is about convincing your adversary that continuing these operations will become too costly. And I’m not sure Russia currently sees those costs as sufficiently high.”As an expert on following money trails, she believes European governments have not done enough to identify the networks behind operations, expose the command structures, disrupt their financing and logistics, and impose consequences. Meanwhile, Russia’s war is going badly on the ground.
乌克兰的两次反攻削弱了莫斯科夺取东部顿涅茨克地区的主要攻势，实际上使其今年未能取得任何领土进展。
Two Ukrainian counteroffensives have blunted Moscow’s main thrust to capture the eastern region of Donetsk and in effect have deprived it of any territorial gains this year.
自8月一次在德国莱比锡/哈勒机场炸毁货机的行动失败以来——该行动后来被欧盟委员会证实为俄罗斯所为——关于进一步升级的警告成倍增加。
Since a failed August operation to blow up cargo planes at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport, which was later verified by the European Commission as a Russian operation, warnings of further escalation have multiplied.
捷克情报负责人米哈尔·库德尔斯卡9月警告称，俄罗斯可能在“数月而非数年”内对北约成员国发动军事攻击。
Czech spy chief Michal Koudelka warned in September that Russia might attempt a military attack on a NATO member in “months, not years”.
几天后，俄罗斯外交部发言人玛丽亚·扎哈罗娃公开宣称，向乌克兰供应武器的欧洲国防工业是莫斯科的合法打击目标。
Days later, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova openly declared that European defence industries supplying Ukraine were legitimate targets for Moscow.
“俄罗斯不一定区分乌克兰在战场上使用的军事能力与使这些能力成为可能的欧洲基础设施，”特雷古布对半岛电视台表示。
“Russia does not necessarily distinguish between the military capabilities Ukraine uses on the battlefield and the European infrastructure that makes those capabilities possible,” Tregub told Al Jazeera.
“从莫斯科的角度来看，一家为乌克兰生产军事装备的工厂、一个运输这些装备的物流枢纽，或一家提供关键技术的公司，都可能成为破坏的目标。”本月，五个欧盟情报机构的代表向《金融时报》表示，俄罗斯正试图“杀害”欧洲防务负责人，并打击其供应链。
“From Moscow’s perspective, a factory producing military equipment for Ukraine, a logistics hub transporting that equipment or a company providing critical technology can all become potential targets of disruption.”This month, representatives of five EU intelligence agencies told the Financial Times that Russia was seeking to “kill” European defence bosses and target their supply chains.
此前，德国《法兰克福汇报》报道称，俄罗斯在慕尼黑的防务公司罗德与施瓦茨和赫尔辛格的办公室内放置了燃烧装置。此前还有政治新闻网报道称，欧盟安全官员表示，俄罗斯正计划超越信息战，在欧洲土地上夺取生命。
That followed a report from a German newspaper, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, that Russia had planted incendiary devices in the offices of defence companies Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing in Munich. It also followed a report on the Politico news site in which EU security officials said Russia was planning to move beyond messaging and claim lives on European soil.
欧洲官员谈到要增强其数据中心、电信及其他脆弱网络和产业的韧性，但他们没有谈到报复。
European officials have spoken of strengthening the resilience of their data centres, telecommunications, and other vulnerable networks and industries, but they have not spoken of retaliation.
然而，从乌克兰的角度来看，欧洲一直迟迟未能将破坏活动、有人和无人军事行动、网络攻击和信息战视为与俄罗斯多维战争的早期阶段，而这种认知上的失败本身就是一种弱点。
From the Ukrainian point of view, though, Europe has been slow to see sabotage, manned and unmanned military operations, cyberattacks and information warfare as the early stages of a multidimensional war with Russia, and that failure of perception is itself a weakness.
乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基10月16日对记者说：“如果他目前正在用所有这些无人机针对欧洲国家、甚至是北约国家进行测试，他会在哪里停下？”他指的是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京。“他们还没有大声谈论这件事。他们不想升级……但当弹道导弹和巡航导弹以及数千架无人机到来时，你们会大声谈论的。”乌克兰国防部和外交部长期顾问、现为英国皇家联合军种研究院俄罗斯战争专家的亚历山大·丹尼柳克说：“乌克兰人不知道乌克兰有任何战争。他们知道欧洲有战争。”
“Where will he stop if he is currently testing all these drones against European countries, even NATO countries?”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked journalists on October 16, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “They are not talking about it very loudly yet. They don’t want escalation, … but you will talk very loudly when there are ballistic and cruise missiles and also thousands of drones.”“Ukrainians don’t know about any war in Ukraine. They know about war in Europe,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, a long-serving adviser to the Ukrainian Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs and now a Russian warfare expert with the Royal United Services Institute.
像泽连斯基和特雷古布一样，他也认为，俄罗斯对其明显的混合战争未遭报复，这反而鼓励了俄罗斯。
Like Zelenskyy and Tregub, he believes the lack of retaliation to its apparent hybrid war encourages Russia.
“俄罗斯人目前只受其能力限制，因为他们想做什么就做什么，没有任何反应，”他说。
“Russians are limited right now only by their capabilities because they do whatever they want. There is no reaction,” he said.
他说，他认为北约需要在波罗的海国家部署更多前沿部队，以建立“拒止威慑”并加强乌克兰。
He said he believes NATO needs to place more forward troops in the Baltic states to create “deterrence by denial” and to strengthen Ukraine.
欧洲政策分析中心安全与防御领域的领先研究人员明娜·阿兰德尔表示，拒发俄罗斯旅行签证、实施报复性网络攻击、进一步拦截俄罗斯石油船队以及制裁向俄罗斯提供国防物资的中国供应商，都是欧洲可以立即实施的现实报复措施。丹尼柳克表示，金钱仍然是最有效的威慑工具。
Minna Alander, a leading European researcher in security and defence with the Center for European Policy Analysis, said denying Russians travel visas, carrying out retaliatory cyberattacks, further interdicting the Russian oil fleet and sanctioning Chinese suppliers of defence goods to Russia were all realistic retaliations Europe could impose immediately. Danylyuk said money remains the most potent tool of deterrence.
“惩罚俄罗斯最直接的方式就是实际增加对乌克兰的支持，”他告诉半岛电视台。“每次我们在欧洲发现俄罗斯的情报行动，我们就会将对乌克兰的联合支持增加[也许]10%、20%。”然而，他观察到，乌克兰的盟友正在发出相反的信号。
“The most direct way to punish Russia is to actually increase support to Ukraine,” he told Al Jazeera. “Each time we detect Russian intelligence operations in Europe, we will increase combined support of Ukraine [maybe] 10 percent, 20 percent.”Yet Ukraine’s allies are signalling the opposite, he observed.
美国于2025年1月撤回了其军事和财政支持，并最近对其卫星服务的可靠性表示怀疑。在法国和德国，政府落后于希望停止向乌克兰提供援助的反对派领导人。乌克兰的表现优于许多人的预期。
The United States withdrew its military and financial support in January 2025 and recently placed the dependability of its satellite services in doubt. In France and Germany, the governments trail opposition leaders who want to stop aid to Ukraine. Ukraine has performed better than many expected.
自2023年以来，它已自行设计和制造武器，并制定了自己的策略来阻止俄罗斯的推进。它通过打击俄罗斯境内深处的石油设施和武器工厂，惩罚了俄罗斯。
Since 2023, it has designed and built its own weapons and developed its own strategy to halt the Russian advance. It has punished Russia by striking oil installations and weapons factories deep inside its territory.
为了扭转战争局势并收复被占领土，它正在寻求更多资金，并且正在向提供绝大部分资金的人——欧洲——寻求资金。
To reverse the tide of the war and reclaim its occupied territories, it is asking for more money, and it is asking it from the people providing the vast majority of it – Europe.
“明年，战争将花费1550亿欧元（1700亿美元），我们需要你们再提供至少700亿欧元（800亿美元），”泽连斯基于10月16日在欧洲理事会上表示。
“Next year, the war will cost 155 billion euros [$170bn]), and we need at least 70 billion euros [$80bn] more from you,” Zelenskyy told the European Council on October 16.
他说：“我们可以把无人机产量提高一倍甚至两倍。试想一下，如果我们能生产两到三倍的无人机，我们就能对俄罗斯施加多大的压力。”
“We could double or even triple the production of drones,” he said. “Just imagine how much more pressure we could put on Russia if we could do two or three times more.”