一名工作人员在2026年10月14日艾奥瓦州得梅因的提前投票期间手持“我已投票”贴纸。
A worker holds I Voted Today stickers during early voting on October 14, 2026 in Des Moines, Iowa.
查理·内伯加尔／盖蒂图片社 在2026年中期选举的最后一周，广告支出数据表明，核心选战与其说是为了在众议院阻止民主党的浪潮，不如说是为了弄清这股浪潮会涨到多高。
Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images In the final week of the 2026 midterm election, ad spending data suggests the core battle is less about stopping a Democratic wave in the House, and more about figuring out how high it crests.
美国国家公共电台的一项分析发现，最终竞争激烈的众议院版图正在扩大，其中包括70个选区，两党都在这些选区的最后冲刺阶段投入了至少六位数资金用于传达竞选信息。
An NPR analysis finds the final competitive House landscape is expansive, including 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures per district into their final days of messaging.
这其中包括在密歇根州、北卡罗来纳州、纽约州和佛罗里达州的摇摆选区各自超过1000万美元的投入；在田纳西州、俄克拉何马州和阿肯色州深红社区的七位数广告买进；以及向那些共和党划界可能产生反弹的选区投入的最后一刻资源。
That includes more than $10 million each in toss up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida; seven figure ad buys in deep-red communities across Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas and last-minute resources to districts where gerrymandering by Republicans could backfire.
在一个对执政党不利的中期选举环境中，共和党在众议院微弱的218比214席优势几乎确定将让位给民主党控制。《库克政治报告》的最新评级发现，民主党在220个选区中占优，17个被列为“摇摆”，另有30个具有潜在竞争性但略微倾向于共和党。
In a midterm environment that disfavors the party in power, Republicans' narrow 218-214 seat advantage in the House appears all but certain to give way to Democratic control. The latest ratings from the Cook Political Report finds Democrats favored in 220 seats, 17 listed as "toss-ups" and another 30 that are potentially competitive but lean toward the GOP.
纸面上竞争激烈的选区 在2024年总统选举周期中出现微弱差距的大多数席位都已经向民主党倾斜，特别是在那10个分别投票给一方总统候选人和另一方众议院候选人的选区。
Competitive races on paper Most of the seats that saw narrow margins in the 2024 presidential election cycle have shifted the way of the Democrats, especially in the 10 districts that voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee.
这包括由民主党众议员亚当·格雷（加利福尼亚州第13选区）、内莉·普（新泽西州第9选区）、玛丽·格卢森坎普-佩雷斯（华盛顿州第3选区）以及即将退休的共和党众议员唐·培根（内布拉斯加州第2选区）所持有的席位。
That includes seats held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (CA-13), Nellie Pou (NJ-09) and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03) and retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02).
根据AdImpact的数据，在过去几周里，这四个选区都见证了共和党削减广告预订。
All four of those districts have seen Republicans slash ad reservations in recent weeks, according to AdImpact data.
美国国家公共电台、公共电视网新闻和马里斯特联合民调发现，在国会泛选票上，民主党在登记选民中拥有10个百分点的优势，在极有可能投票的选民中拥有8个百分点的优势。这意味着在将候选人质量或外部支出计算在内之前，纸面上有竞争力的席位范围要广泛得多。
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats have a 10-point advantage among registered voters and 8 points with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. That means a far broader number of seats are competitive on paper, before accounting for candidate quality or outside spending.
生活成本依然是选民最关心的首要问题，随着天然气价格上涨、关税以及持续的伊朗战争，这些因素构成了许多美国人的经济困境。与此同时，初选中的反现任浪潮进一步放大了创纪录数量的国会退休声明。
Cost of living remains the top concern for voters, as rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran factor into economic woes for many Americans. At the same time, a record number of Congressional retirement announcements has been amplified by an anti-incumbency streak in primary elections.
最高法院做出进一步削弱《选举权法》部分条款的裁决后，十年中期选区重划浪潮进一步打乱了选图，共和党人改变了边界，将更多保守派选民纳入由民主党众议员玛西·卡普图尔（俄亥俄州第9选区）、唐·戴维斯（北卡罗来纳州第1集区）、肖马里·菲格斯（亚拉巴马州第2选区）和达伦·索托（佛罗里达州第9选区）持有的选区中。
A wave of mid-decade redistricting after a Supreme Court decision that further rolled back part of the Voting Rights Act further scrambled the map, as Republicans shifted boundary lines to add more conservative voters into districts held by Democratic Reps.
（民主党在加利福尼亚州对目前由共和党众议员詹姆斯·加拉格尔（加利福尼亚州第1选区）、大卫·瓦拉道（加利福尼亚州第22选区）、肯·卡尔弗特（加利福尼亚州第41选区）、达雷尔·伊萨（加利福尼亚州第48选区）以及独立人士凯文·凯利（加利福尼亚州第6选区）持有的选区采取了同样做法。）只有菲格斯和索托身处目前被评为倾向于共和党的选区。
Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Don Davis (NC-01), Shomari Figures (AL-02) and Darren Soto (FL-09). (Democrats did the same in California for the districts currently held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher (CA-01), David Valadao (CA-22), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Darrell Issa (CA-48) and independent Kevin Kiley (CA-06)). Only Figures and Soto are in districts that are rated as currently favoring Republicans.
许多地方的大额支出 随着数百万选民已经在中期选举中投下选票，有数十场竞选是民主党和共和党认为值得在最后时刻进行大量投入以帮助塑造结果的。
Big spending in many places As millions of voters have already cast their ballots in the midterms, there are dozens of races Democrats and Republicans consider worthy of heavy investment in the final hours to help shape the outcome.
其中成本最高的是：密歇根州第7选区和北卡罗来纳州第1选区——每个选区计划的支出都超过1200万美元；佛罗里达州第14、第22和第25选区；纽约州第17选区；艾奥瓦州第2和第3选区，以及其他一系列倾向于民主党或被视为摇摆选区的竞选。
Most expensive among them: Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District —each with more than $12 million in spending planned; Florida's 14th, 22nd and 25th Districts; New York's 17th District; Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts and a slew of other races that either favor Democrats or are considered toss ups.
其中包括共和党今年为最大程度削弱民主党投票力量而重新划定的选区，例如亚拉巴马州第2选区和田纳西州第9选区，以及选民在2024年以超过10个百分点的优势支持特朗普的选区，如肯塔基州第6选区和阿肯色州第2选区。
They include seats redrawn by Republicans this year to minimize Democratic voting power, like Alabama's 2nd District and Tennessee's 9th District and districts where voters backed Trump in 2024 by more than 10 points like Kentucky's 6th District and Arkansas' 2nd District.
总的来说，两党各自投入至少六位数广告费用的70场竞选在2024年平均以9个百分点的优势投票支持特朗普。
In all, the 70 races that have at least six figures of ad spending from each party voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024.
有60个选区被列为民主党和共和党众议院竞选机构的优先事项，凸显了特朗普政府过去一年在选民中不受欢迎的影响。
There are 60 districts that are listed as priorities of both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms, highlighting the impact of the Trump administration's unpopularity with voters over the last year.
并非每一场竞选都会以胶着告终或看到政党控制权易手。例如，民主党国会竞选委员会的许多“战场选区”在2024年给特朗普贡献了接近60%的得票率，并且两党在这些选区几乎没有进行广告投入。2026年中期选举
Not every race will end up close or see party control change hands. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Districts In Play," for example, gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little-to-no ad spend from either party. 2026 midterms