经过数月激烈竞选，中期选举终于到来。今天，选民们前往投票站，决定哪个政党将控制国会，并在全国多场关键的州长选举中投票。最近的民调显示，民主党有望从共和党手中重新夺回众议院控制权，并且有机会夺取参议院，目前共和党在参议院以五十三对四十七的优势领先。民主党夺取参议院最可能的路径包括：在三个关键摇摆州——密歇根州、新罕布什尔州和乔治亚州——守住席位，并在七个共和党持有的竞争性席位中至少翻转四个：阿拉斯加州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、缅因州、堪萨斯州和德克萨斯州。
After months of hard-fought campaigning, the midterm elections have finally arrived. Today, voters are heading to the polls to decide which party will control Congress, and to cast their votes in several consequential gubernatorial races around the country. Recent polling suggests that the Democrats are likely to wrest control of the House of Representatives back from Republicans, and they have a shot at the Senate, where the G.O.P. currently holds a fifty-three-to-forty-seven vote advantage. The most likely path for Democrats to take the latter includes defending seats in three key swing states—Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia—and flipping at least four of seven competitive Republican-held seats: Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Kansas, and Texas.
第一批投票站将于东部标准时间今晚6点关闭，并将根据美联社的报道公布结果，直至最终选票统计完毕。
The first polls will close tonight at 6 Eastern Standard Time, and will publish results, as reported by the Associated Press, until the final votes are tallied.
今年的中期选举将载入史册，成为有史以来最昂贵的选举——包括历届总统选举周期——仅竞选广告支出就超过110亿美元。这笔支出大部分集中在少数几场参议院竞选中，有超过10亿美元投入到仅三个州：密歇根州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州。特别是德克萨斯州，被视为民主党的重要风向标；该州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科在民调中微弱领先于德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年以超过13个百分点的优势赢得了该州。
This year’s midterms will go down as the most expensive election ever—including past Presidential cycles—as more than eleven billion dollars has been spent on campaign advertising alone. The bulk of this spending has been concentrated on a handful of Senate races, with more than a billion dollars going to just three states: Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Texas, in particular, is considered a major bellwether for the Democrats; the state representative James Talarico holds a narrow polling lead over Texas’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, despite President Donald Trump winning the state by more than thirteen points in 2024.
如果塔拉里科获胜——成为自1994年以来首位在全州范围内当选的民主党人——很可能是因为拉丁裔选民，民调显示，他们在2024年急剧转向共和党后，已重新转向左翼。这也将反映出对特朗普的深刻不满，他的支持率已跌至三十几，最近创下其两个任期中的最低点。
If Talarico wins—becoming the first Democrat elected statewide since 1994—it will likely be because of Latino voters, who polls suggest, after swinging sharply toward the G.O.P. in 2024, have moved back to the left. It will also reflect a deep dissatisfaction with Trump, whose approval rating has sunk into the thirties—recently hitting the lowest point in either of his two terms.
相应地，民主党候选人积极将选举变成对特朗普的公投，在最近几次民调中，选民将与总统相关的问题列为首要优先事项。这包括特朗普对伊朗的战争，该战争导致高通胀和油价飙升，以及特朗普大力推动的数据中心建设。如果民主党能夺回国会，众议院议长人选哈基姆·杰弗里斯议员已表示，计划开展激进的监督，包括对特朗普政府亲信的商业交易进行国会调查、移民执法改革，甚至可能举行弹劾听证会。
Accordingly, Democratic candidates have actively sought to make the election a referendum on Trump, and, across several recent polls, voters have rated issues related to the President as their top priorities. This has included Trump’s war in Iran, which has contributed to high inflation and spiking gas prices, and data-center construction, which Trump has championed. If the Democrats are able to take back Congress, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the presumptive Speaker of the House, has signalled plans for aggressive oversight, including congressional investigations into business deals by figures close to the Trump Administration, immigration-enforcement reform, and potentially even impeachment hearings.
今天的中期选举结果也可能为2028年总统大选格局提供预览，为几位目前正在各自州寻求连任的潜在民主党提名人选提供早期考验，例如马里兰州州长韦斯·摩尔、宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗和佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫。
The results of today’s midterm elections could also offer a preview for the 2028 Presidential landscape, providing an early test for several potential Democratic nominees who are currently up for reëlection in their respective states, such as the Maryland governor, Wes Moore; the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro; and the Georgia senator Jon Ossoff.
在整个选举日以及夜间，将提供选举结果的实时更新，记者将从全国各个摇摆州发回报道，专栏作家将在选票开始计票时提供新的分析。为持续跟进选举后数日的报道，以及收听政治场景播客，以获取选举后的深度访谈和分析。
Throughout Election Day, and into the night, will provide live updates on election results, with reporters filing dispatches from battleground states nationwide and columnists offering fresh analysis as votes start to come in. for continued coverage in the days following the election, and to The Political Scene Podcast for in-depth post-election interviews and analysis.